Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobtc]

SNIP
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
SNIP

Well, I've never been to Spain
But I kinda like the music
Say the ladies are insane there
And they sure know how to use it

They don't abuse it
Never gonna lose it
I can't refuse it

[Biodom]

Some of you guys, now saying that we've been in a bear market since last year but making that call at the bottom of a bear market, make me chuckle.

Such amazing insight, guys. I mean, whatever would we do without you?  j/k

How about we define bear market as "Price hits a new ATH, but then falls and takes too long to return to that price to suit bitcoiners."  

True.., but if someone can make that call reliably, he/she would be a billionaire, right?
Too many factors in play, resulting in a unique situation.
I did not shed any bitcoin (because I still have a policy of never selling it), but sold quite a bit of alts during Sept-Dec recovery since I did not believe in that recovery and was periodically posting about this (maybe not with 100% conviction, sure). Paid for all house improvements and then some (even after taxes).

We are now witnessing a planetary shit-show and I wonder if my decision (of never selling bitcoin) was too cocky.
What before was impossible becomes exceedingly possible and there is no end to various calamities.
Sometimes i just want to disconnect from all of it and be at peace (relative)....somewhere.
How to get to that somewhere (either spiritually or physically) is currently not clear.

[Biodom]

SNIP
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
SNIP

Well, I've never been to Spain
But I kinda like the music
Say the ladies are insane there
And they sure know how to use it

They don't abuse it
Never gonna lose it
I can't refuse it

hmmm...here is a limerick (from freebsdlimericks):

There was a young lady from Spain
Who got sick as she rode on a train;
        Not once, but again,
        And again, and again,
And again, and again, and again.

OR (to balance the score)

There was an Old Person of Spain,
Who hated all trouble and pain;
So he sat on a chair,
With his feet in the air,
That umbrageous Old Person of Spain.

[philipma1957]

One day I hope to see a Total Solar Eclipse...

Looking at the map - https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEatlas/SEatlas3/SEatlas2021.GIF there are 3 good possibility:

2024 - Mexico, U.S. and Canada
2026 - Spain
2027 - Spain, Algeria

We should have 100k by then, right?

2024-just a few hours trip from here during April -nice weather, usually, at this time (around 18-20oC, 70F).
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
2027-Gibraltar (maybe on a cruise)?

I remember one like 1964?  or 1966 I was a kid and looked at it in a reflection on a storm door. I was pretty scared the reflection on the glass could hurt my eyes but 55-56 years later and I am not blind.

I should look up the date it happened.


Edit looked up date:

Maybe July 20,1963 according to this.

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/list.html?starty=1960


I would have been 6 1/2

[JayJuanGee]

Y’all talking 34k and stuff..
Recovery to me would be $40k..
Wouldn’t doubt it within a week or 2..

This week is critical week for Bitcoin to me,  because we've had about 6 Weekly bearish candle closure in a row.

There have been 7 weekly red candles in a row, so far.  So what?

If we get this week candle close below 28k, It will be the lowest weekly candle closure we've got within that zone.

Get the fuck out of here.  Who cares?   We had weekly candles closing below $28k before January 2021, so what's the BIG DEAL?

You trying to create fake drama?  over something that has to happen?  To me, your desperation makes it seem as if a bottom may be in - especially given your pleas in regards to what "has to happen" supposedly.

Therefore BTC should hold this level in order to recover, getting a weekly closure below $28k point of view signals further selling pressure and I think that's when things could go crazy.

I suppose if you repeat the same thing twice, then for sure, you must know what you are talking about, right?

There seems to be a fuckload of 1.sat/byte transactions on the network. My tx from yesterday was stuck like 35mb from the top (crazy huh) increasing the fee to just 2.sat/byte propelled it to ~1mb from the top. What could be the reason for such congestion? 

auhgh... I don't know.

From what you are saying, it sounds pretty bad.

Panic now!!!!!!!

If you must.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Ok, so now PlanB declared the bear market.

I wonder if he is wrong again. That would be funny  

"Dec 2021 I was still hoping for a 2nd leg of the bull market. But in Q1 2022 it became clear that this bitcoin bull market was over. We entered a bear market since Apr 2021 peak (yes ATH was Nov 2021). Now we are creating a bottom. Then a new bull market will start. BTC cycles."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1526129846723698688?cxt=HHwWgICzsdDA860qAAAA

Market assessment about whether we are in a bull market or a bear market is usually based on various delayed indicators - and really it would be difficult to call it in advance absent a kind of guessing... so getting below the 100-week moving average seems to be a kind of confirmation that the bear market could have started either in April 2021 or November 2021.. .. I have heard others proclaim that it had already started in April 2021, but that seems a bit difficult to concede based on the higher high in November 2021 - even though surely it could be somewhat reasonable to take either position (or suggest the plausibility of either framing of the matter).

Surely subsequent BTC price performance might cause one or the other frames to be more convincing based on further data that comes out with such passage of time.

Lightning Network a thread to BTC.

Well Lightning network aims to cheap and faster transactions on the BTC blockchain... This is a big thread.

As BTC is a store of value for that BTC is more than Gold and if you consider it as a medium of exchange that will be a disaster.

Learn how it works BTC is POW Chain Minners Mine blocks and approve transactions nd get rewarded in two ways 1st is Mining Block rewards BTC which reduces after a specific time period and then 2nd is Transaction fee reward.

Mining will end someday and then Minners left over a single way to earn transaction cost if we want BTC as a medium of exchange then we need low transactions and low transactions mean Minners will refuse to support the network and Chain collapse. If

The massive adoption of the lightning networks as El Selva will cost the massive destruction in the market, a side chains are good way of exchange but remember BTC is the only store of value other then that will directly affect the system.

DYOR  its my personal thinking after anlysising the facts through recources

BTC is a Store of Value not a Medium of exchange

I don't see why there seems to be such a dilemma for uie-pooie?

In other words, why not both?

I do understand that there are various reasons why people might be reluctant to spend BTC, especially if they might have a lot of other options, and also if there might be unfavorable tax treatments in spending BTC.. .. however, there might be situations in which guys don't have as many issues spending some of their bitcoin.. especially small amounts.. especially if fees are relatively low.. and there could even be discounts to spend BTC if some retailers recognized/appreciate various benefits in receiving BTC.

7 Red Weekly Candles for the first time in the history of Bitcoin and you still call it Bull run? my arse.
Midwit's will now ask me to zoom out the chart holy F  

Are you just making shit up?

Who's calling it a bull run, currently?  Do you need that peep to be batslappened?  I know a guy who knows a guy. #justsaying.

Is your made up adversary (aka strawperson, aka they" in the room with us, now??

[Hueristic]

SNIP
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
SNIP

Well, I've never been to Spain
But I kinda like the music
Say the ladies are insane there
And they sure know how to use it

They don't abuse it
Never gonna lose it
I can't refuse it

Was my first thought as well, just had to listen to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm6qw_yeo6o

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Oh my, crazy times we're living in - JJG turning into a bear, proudhon predicts $70k soon (contrarian indicator) OMG we're in trouble boys!  

Your claim about me turning into a bear is without evidence.

If I say that it seems to me that passing below the 100-week MA indicates that we are in a bear market - until we get back above that or some other convincing evidence that we are no longer in a bear market.

Remember I am a delayed indicator, and I said the same thing in about late November 2018 - although I had not used the 100-week moving average but instead that BTC prices broke below $6k and went down to nearly $3k, which seem to me to indicate that we were in a bear market that was not resolved until sometime after the April 2019 uptrend.. and maybe by the time we were in mid-May 2019, it was confirmed that the bear market was over.

I am just trying to call balls and strikes here.. for the most part - even though so far I have always been inclined to prefer that the BTC price goes up.. or that we are not stuck in a channel of negativity or flat..

I cannot remember exactly what I said in early 2015 (January-ish) but I think that the evidence was similar by then that we were in a bear market.. and maybe even was not resolved until either later 2015 or maybe not really confirmed until the end of May 2016.  perhaps? perhaps?

So we have been to similar places previously and I have no idea how long we might stay in this here channel.. let's call it sub $35k (or perhaps even sub $42k?-ish to be confirmed to be out?  a bit of a moving target, no?).  I cannot imagine anything less than a month or two to get out or to rise above.. but who knows?

Do you believe a faster bounce is feasible or likely, and I am not even saying that it might not happen, I just consider such a fast bounce above $42k-ish and staying above that to be a wee bit in the low-probabilities, from where we are at right now.

I deny being a bear.... but I am not going to overly skew my assessment to the positive when the facts and/or logic do not seem too likely at the moment.. and I am not even saying that sometimes I do pull some of my punches and I do sometimes error on the side of analyzing up and not saying anything about down.. but when the probability seems to have at least flipped against UP.. I don't feel right saying that the probability would be 50% or greater for UP..

Does it mean that we are "in trouble"?  I have my doubts.  Just continue to stack sats and/or HODL.. and also realize that if you are selling any BTC at these prices it's not even very likely that you are going to be able to buy back lower.. so I would not even say to sell anything but you might want to either save some dry powder for just in case the BTC price goes lower and those kinds of related tactics.. For sure, there are some guys who might not have much if any cash left for buying BTC or even cash coming in, and those kinds of guys should try to HODL through these times... for however long they last.. whether the $25,401 bottom is "in" or we just do not know... maybe I have to revise my percentage assignments again (including the downity ones that I made on May 11th at the bottom of this post)?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Kung Carl XVI Gustaf har på måndagen fått information om att regeringen avser att gå med i Nato.

[JayJuanGee]

Ben Cowen...not just about bitcoin..his numbers hurt my 'inner child'  
linking from the point he starts talking about btc specifically:
https://youtu.be/S-tKFGSrDYI?t=918

Yes.. worse case scenarios pretty bearish.

.. and bears do like to take advantage of momentum if they can..

One day I hope to see a Total Solar Eclipse...

Looking at the map - https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEatlas/SEatlas3/SEatlas2021.GIF there are 3 good possibility:

2024 - Mexico, U.S. and Canada
2026 - Spain
2027 - Spain, Algeria

We should have 100k by then, right?

2024-just a few hours trip from here during April -nice weather, usually, at this time (around 18-20oC, 70F).
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
2027-Gibraltar (maybe on a cruise)?

I remember one like 1964?  or 1966 I was a kid and looked at it in a reflection on a storm door. I was pretty scared the reflection on the glass could hurt my eyes but 55-56 years later and I am not blind.

I should look up the date it happened.


Edit looked up date:

Maybe July 20,1963 according to this.

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/list.html?starty=1960


I would have been 6 1/2

Oh?

That explains how you turned out.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

So "someone" desires to see Ethereum become a more Bitcoin-like system.

What does he mean by "Bitcoin-like system"? So in other words he want Ethereum to be bitcoin.



https://twitter.com/vitalikbuterin/status/1526378789411860480?s=21

[BobLawblaw]

Goddamnit... Throwing another BTC at my node.

So bored RN.

I total hate you LN baguettes.

[Gachapin]

So "someone" desires to see Ethereum become a more Bitcoin-like system.

What does he mean by "Bitcoin-like system"? So in other words he want Ethereum to be bitcoin.



https://twitter.com/vitalikbuterin/status/1526378789411860480?s=21

The Meth CEO has spoken


Does he just need more investors because the probable future of a tumbling price?

Or is he is aiming for a flippening?

[Zlantann]

So "someone" desires to see Ethereum become a more Bitcoin-like system.

What does he mean by "Bitcoin-like system"? So in other words he want Ethereum to be bitcoin.



https://twitter.com/vitalikbuterin/status/1526378789411860480?s=21

Coca cola can never be Pepsi
Mercedes can never be Toyota
Football can never be Swimming
Satoshi Nakamoto can never be Vitalik Buterin ( and co.)
Ethereum can never be like Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation