Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714644333]

1714644333

[death_wish]

@death_wish: "deathwish" is a skateboard brand,

Oh, really?

I have been planning to open a new cryptocurrency exchange, which allows only margin trading:  The Death Wish Exchange (DWEX).  It will be a DEX on Solana—because Solana becomes unreliable under heavy load, such as occurs from high tx volume every time that Bitcoin dips.  I will then program a high-performance liquidator bot called grim_reaper to scoop up cheap discount bitcoins from people who can’t even make deposits to save their accounts.  (Search the Web; there are many complaints from Solana users who got liquidated by highly tuned bots while struggling to make deposits.)

Hey, I’ve got to make myself some BTC somehow!

I have received spam from exchanges offering incentives to start trading on margin.  Now, you gave me a new idea:  Death Wish traders with leveraged longs who lose at least 0.1 BTC get a free Deathwish-brand skateboard with wheels doused in WD-40.  Those who lose at least 1 BTC get free cyanide capsules, plus a pearl-handled pistol for backup.  For those who lose at least 10 BTC, I’ll throw in a free tombstone.  And so forth...  Lose at least 1000 BTC, and you’ll get your very own customized, personalized Death Wish brand mausoleum!

When the market crashes, incentives to increase long leverage will be offered during the dead cat bounce.

Hmmm...  Need some incentives to short.  To start with, those who get rekt shorting Bitcoin at high leverage will get free llama tattoos on their foreheads.

but if you ever have the chance, change your forum nick to "inner_peace",

For the past few days, as I’ve started to discuss topics other than my margin wreckage, I have been thinking to switch names one way or another.  I have not yet done so, for reasons that will be more apparent if/when I do.  “If or when.”  We’ll see...

You don't need to be rich to be happy, yourz knowz?  

After many years of telling myself something like that, I started to have some serious regrets about that kind of thinking.  I think Bitcoin, I talk Bitcoin...  I started to say to myself, I want me some more of those bitcoins.  It got to me.  And I suddenly flipped from being too non-greedy, too patient—to being stupidly greedy, too impatient.  I swung straight from one extreme to the other.

That is why I tried margin.

Food for thought.

I think that I should try more rational means of being a moneymaking mercenary capitalist.

[death_wish]

holy shit way behind, in a trauma ward atm.

Bike accident sunday night, gonna be ok will post more tomorrow hopefully,

Damn.  Get better soon.


I apologize for the accidental incongruity of what I just posted, coming right after you.  I was looking at older posts, trying to catch up on a few things I’d passed by before...  Just saw yours.  I won’t delete it.  Knowing you, you will probably laugh.

And get better soon.

[Richy_T]

As it goes, I was kinda "forced" to watch Pirates of the Caribbean(s) by this chick I was fucking... and, actually I was surprised, I actually enjoyed it.

And how was the movie?

[vapourminer]

Bike accident sunday night, gonna be ok will post more tomorrow hopefully,

ouch. take it easy.. get better soon.

[Richy_T]

[25:25] ...by the way, how many of y’all remember Napster?  You know, Napster was unstoppable, it was inevitable, until—boom!  It was obliterated.

Lessons were learned from Napster and bittorrent was created which has stubbornly been resistant against shutdown. Those same lessons carried forward into the design of Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

[25:25] ...by the way, how many of y’all remember Napster?  You know, Napster was unstoppable, it was inevitable, until—boom!  It was obliterated.

Lessons were learned from Napster and bittorrent was created which has stubbornly been resistant against shutdown. Those same lessons carried forward into the design of Bitcoin.

missing_the_point.gif

Thanks, but I’ve heard of Bittorrent.  I was torrenting when some of the people here were in diapers.  I also thought of torrents when I watched Cruz’s speech.  And I think I have adequately demonstrated that I know a thing or two about Bitcoin, its design, and its implementation.  (I can even explain in great detail why Bitcoin does not use a DHT like trackerless torrents, if anyone is curious about that.)

You cut this part from your quote:

Cruz says a few things that I find debatable; but he made some incisive points.

Near the end of his speech, Cruz warned Bitcoiners to remember Napster.  Although his analogy is imprecise due to Bitcoin’s greater decentralization, it is nonetheless a good and insightful analogy.  Cruz is alarmed, as I am, about Bitcoiners’ naïveté and complacency.

Please stop nitpicking and overextending analogies, as an excuse for continued naïveté and complacency.

What do you suppose would really happen to Bitcoin globally, if the U.S. were to impose Chinese-style laws?  Or even a fraction of that?  For one thing, you can forget about rooting for $100k...  For one thing.

I myself will continue using Bitcoin no matter what—as long as there is anyone else using Bitcoin.  I have advanced technical expertise, and I am ideologically motivated to use Bitcoin regardless of its market value.  How many are like me?

Following the China mining ban, what proportion of the global hashrate moved to the U.S.?  How many of those miners would continue to operate under adverse regulation?  Under an outright ban?  In other plausible scenarios?

Bitcoin is resilient.  But a major part of its resilience is in its people, not in technology.  There are no technological solutions to some problems.  Complacency when the writing is on the wall is one of those problems.  I am doing my part right here, right now, to try to help solve that problem.

(I see this as a part of a multi-pronged attack to push for Bitcoin to go POS; but let’s take one thing at a time...)


Edited to add:  As for Bittorrent:  Most torrent users do not understand why it has not been stamped out.  Bram Cohen, et al. went to great pains to run an unimpeachably legal torrent business, without even the slightest hint of copyright violation.  By accident or by design, this effectually gave legal cover to widespread publication and usage of torrent software—even if most of the actual usage was probably for copyright violations.  Torrenters who think to themselves, “LOL, they can’t stop us” are fantastically naïve and foolish; they have no idea what the hell they are talking about.

Moreover, if you believe that the RIAA/MPAA (private organizations of lawyers) are formidable adversaries, then you have never locked horns with the U.S. regulatory and law enforcement agencies who are tasked with enforcing U.S. laws about money.

And by the way...  Torrents are dying, and remaining torrenters have been going underground—many of them disappearing into closed, insular tiny groups swimming in paranoia.  That’s been happening for a reason...  I haven’t done much of this stuff for years; but if you would be so kind as to get me a BIB or MAM invite, that would be great.  Thanks.  (Hint because this is the Internet:  My rhetorical point is that invites are practically impossible to obtain, due to “closed groups swimming in paranoia”.  Closed groups under firmly centralized administration, by the way.  So much for “can’t stop this, it’s decentralized” bravado.  Want to see Bitcoin reduced to furtive, invite-only groups of scared people trading coins in the shadows?  That is your Bittorrent analogy.)

[BitcoinBunny]

As it goes, I was kinda "forced" to watch Pirates of the Caribbean(s) by this chick I was fucking... and, actually I was surprised, I actually enjoyed it.

ps, yeah I could not give a fuck about the trial either, not really followed it.... but seems like a bitch got served for being a bitch... life's a bitch.

I was forced to watch Harry Potter 1 by a woman I was fucking some 10 years ago. It was a horrendous movie. Truly awful. "You will love this because you like adventure and sci fi. etc" she said. Well she clearly never appreciated my critical brain.  

I just couldn't get over how ultra dumb, patronising and extremely childish Harry Potter 1 actually was. Holy hell! The fact they fed this to millions / billions and made 8 movies and countless books and THAT was the first movie?! It was like the opposite of Star Wars A New Hope. Dumb, no fun, stupid characters you just want to die straight away and an uninteresting story. I pretty much don't like wizards or werewolves / Dracula etc. I think it is very difficult to create a captivating movie about something where the established rules of the world are constantly changing or not clearly defined.


I enjoyed POTC 1 somewhat - I thought the thing of rides converted to movies concept wasn't a bad idea but never thought it would really have legs -, so rented the second one also about 10 years ago. I switched it off after 5 minutes as it seemed equally as terrible as Harry Potter 1 with Depp clearly just phoning things in, acting like a drunk imbecile being captured and not giving a shit. Awful. I'd rather sit on the Pirates ride and listen to all the talk in French for 2 1/2 hours straight. That says enough.

As for Amber. Her thigh gap when dressed in the Mera suit was pretty sexy but she is a typical Hollywood elitist victim bitch. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Welcome to the real world.

[d_eddie]

She slides with no grace
Then climbs more or less half speed
She must have been poked






#haiku

[JayJuanGee]

$30,000 definitely feels like the $6,000 point in 2018. We’re just here chilling, thinking this is the bottom & we can’t go any lower. I hope it is but if we test the lows I am going to buy with all I have.

Interesting times!

True, but...  $3k was not supposed to happen: it was caused by a black swan event when sort of a flash crash happened and we were back to ~$6k soon. So quite possible $6k was the true bottom. We will certainly never find out. Atm I don't see how we can go lower than $25k without something really apocalyptic like "US bans Bitcoin" which is btw totally possible because of the latest news of Russia embracing BTC. There's always old good zombie apocalypse for sure too... 

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

until it actually happens.

In other words.. I doubt they are going to be nice to us... if there were to be such a thing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

until it actually happens.

In other words.. I doubt they are going to be nice to us... if there were to be such a thing.

Nah, come on. Of course they'll be nice to us, just like we're nice to life forms we consider inferior. The lucky ones will get killed, and others will be locked up in zoos for their own protection, or "domesticated" to entertain the overlords, or become food.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Blue King]

Everyone wants bitcoin at it’s all time highs, but then ignores it when it’s cheap.


Source:https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1532544005375934465

[cAPSLOCK]

I am just here to publicly say... i barely know who Johnny Depp even is.  I have never seen of those dress up pirate movies.  I could not pick Amber Herd(?) out of a lineup, and I have no idea what the court case was about at all, other than someone shit in a bed.

I could not care less about that stuff, and I sort of think it's bread and circuses.

Seems like most folks liked the outcome.

I honestly think we are about to see the pendulum swing back from this post-modern madness we have come to where people are using emojis as their pronoun, and we have to "believe all women" etc.

In the US them coming to try to take the guns will probably be where the pendulum starts back over in fullness...

I totally agree with the sentiment of your post....

However.... never mind The pirates of the Caribbean... if you have not seen the following... they are all worth a watch


Platoon
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
Tusk
Transcendence
Blow


All worth a watch, Fear and Loathing, is especially good, it is one of my favourite books.  (and the film was made before by others, but never made it to release as Hunter S Thompson did not like them.... he did however like this version with Depp... its pretty decent)

Blow is pretty good.... Tusk and Transcendence are interesting for different reasons... I mean Tusk is demented (Depp only plays a supporting role) and Transcendence is not bad science fiction......  and Platoon , well, its Platoon.

I could mention the Nightmare on Elm Streets that he was in and of course, Lost Boys....


As it goes, I was kinda "forced" to watch Pirates of the Caribbean(s) by this chick I was fucking... and, actually I was surprised, I actually enjoyed it.

ps, yeah I could not give a fuck about the trial either, not really followed it.... but seems like a bitch got served for being a bitch... life's a bitch.

I could mention the Nightmare on Elm Streets that he was in and of course, Lost Boys....

Side note: It wasn't Johnny D. in The Lost Boys, it was Jason Patric.

My favorite Depp movies are The Legend of Sleepy Hollow, Secret Window, Public Enemies, and Ed Wood.

Hmm!  I have seen most of these...  the ones I have seen are good.  I do not know what it was with the stupid pirate gag that just turned me all the way off...

I forgot about Platoon.

[AlcoHoDL]

WHITE HOUSE TO CRAFT BITCOIN MINING POLICY ADDRESSING ENERGY USE: REPORT
The Biden administration is reportedly crafting policies intended to lower energy consumption and emissions from bitcoin mining.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/white-house-to-reduce-bitcoin-energy-use-report

It's the same old narrative: "we must make Bitcoin use less energy"... Those who advocate this idea cannot see that it is a fallacy by definition. It's precisely that inflow of energy that gives Bitcoin its value.

This is a popular fallacy.  Please help to correct others’ misconceptions about it, instead of spreading it.

Bitcoin’s value does not derive from the inflow of energy.  This gets causality backwards—and it doesn’t even make any sense.

Bitcoin’s value causes its energy usage, rather than vice versa.  The higher that Bitcoin’s market value is driven by factors that have nothing to do with its energy use, the more that miners are incentivized to spend on energy.  This drives up the difficulty—thus closing a feedback loop that tunes Bitcoin’s BFT transaction ordering security, the effect, to follow Bitcoin’s market value, the cause.  To the extent that miners thus do contribute back to Bitcoin’s value, it is strictly a second-order effect—not the primary cause.

Higher market value needs higher security.  Higher market value indirectly pays for the higher security that it needs.  The system is subtle, and it’s brilliant!

A clear understanding of this is important for rebutting anti-Bitcoin misinformation and POS propaganda.  The supposed analogy between POW miners and POS stakers is a deceptive illusion, which I can rebut on many key points.  This is one:  Miners do not have economic primacy in Bitcoin’s POW system.

Miners are essentially paid employees of the Bitcoin network.  Their job is security-critical, so they are paid well; but they are neither the bosses nor the owners of the network, and they do not create the network’s value as a first-order cause.

By contrast, POS essentially means a network by the whales, of the whales—for little retail moon-chasers to pour in their dollars, for the benefit of the whales.


This was the signal issue of the Fork Wars.  Bcashers contradicted what I said; their attempted “flippening” was based on the fallacy that miners have some sort of dominant role on the network, economically and otherwise.  Their theory failed.  And my theory, set forth above, was proved in practice.

If I were wrong about this, then we would all be using Bcash or S2X as the “real Bitcoin” now.

A related key point:  The security of consensus validation in Bitcoin is independent of miners, for all purposes except for transaction ordering.  Miners have a sharply limited function in Bitcoin:  BFT agreement on transaction ordering, to prevent double-spend attacks.  All other security is provided by the Bitcoin Core node you have running at home on a Raspberry Pi, consuming 10W of electricity at negligible cost.

This is not the case on POS networks.  On POS networks, so-called “validators” with high capital stake have total control of the blockchain.

This was just proved in practice a few days ago:  The Terra blockchain executed a contentious hardfork in 10 days (!), over massive community opposition.  To exercise central authority over an allegedly “decentralized” blockchain, Do Kwon and Terraform Labs needed only the collusion of a relatively small group of large, wealthy DPOS companies.  Imagine if Bitmain had that type of power over Bitcoin, and you get the idea of how POS really works!

The amount of energy has to be kept high, and should actually increase, for the price to be able to reach 6 digits and beyond.

Nope.  When the price reaches 6 digits—the cause—then miners will spend enough on electricity to secure the transaction ordering on a network holding trillions of dollars worth of value—the effect.

It is indeed a “closed-loop” system, as you say; but the loop runs in the direction opposite to what you suggest.

I like your response, and I do not disagree with what you're saying. It is a different viewpoint that I can accept. The point is that Bitcoin's energy usage and its value are linked like the two sides of a coin, and this is by design. If one is affected, the other will be affected too. It is indeed a feedback (i.e., closed) loop, and if one puts a limit anywhere in that loop, it will affect the entire loop. We can debate endlessly about cause end effect, but the fact is that the Bitcoin network is essentially an energy storage container, and as such, it is subject to the Laws of Thermodynamics. Bitcoin cannot simply "become very valuable" and then be left to stay that way forever without an energy inflow, as if it is a Perpetual Motion Machine. There is no "free lunch" in this universe. Energy must come from somewhere to sustain movement in that loop, regardless of direction.

[DaRude]

...
What do you suppose would really happen to Bitcoin globally, if the U.S. were to impose Chinese-style laws?  Or even a fraction of that?  For one thing, you can forget about rooting for $100k...  For one thing.

I myself will continue using Bitcoin no matter what—as long as there is anyone else using Bitcoin.  I have advanced technical expertise, and I am ideologically motivated to use Bitcoin regardless of its market value.  How many are like me?

Following the China mining ban, what proportion of the global hashrate moved to the U.S.?  How many of those miners would continue to operate under adverse regulation?  Under an outright ban?  In other plausible scenarios?

Bitcoin is resilient.  But a major part of its resilience is in its people, not in technology.  There are no technological solutions to some problems.  Complacency when the writing is on the wall is one of those problems.  I am doing my part right here, right now, to try to help solve that problem.
...

If US bans bitcoin China and Russia would probably embrace it. The enemy of my enemy... kind of a thing, that's the funny thing about the world that most seem to miss. As far as US, probably same thing would happened when US banned drugs, sure Wall st would leave, price would temporary collapse, but the heart beat will continue and pump out a new block every 10min. If there's a demand for something human laws seem to take a secondary role.

As far as hashrate, there are other countries besides China/US, i believe lots of miners moved to Kazakhstan. As long as there's a demand for BTC miners will seek out the lowest priced electricity on this planet, with tolerable laws or corrupt enough enforcement of those laws. If there's enough incentive consequence be damned, risk vs return.

[AlcoHoDL]

holy shit way behind, in a trauma ward atm.

Bike accident sunday night, gonna be ok will post more tomorrow hopefully,

Sorry to hear that. Careful with that bike. You're a Bitcoiner, your body is far too valuable for such risks! 

All the very best. Get well soon!

[AnotherAlt]

As it goes, I was kinda "forced" to watch Pirates of the Caribbean(s) by this chick I was fucking... and, actually I was surprised, I actually enjoyed it.

ps, yeah I could not give a fuck about the trial either, not really followed it.... but seems like a bitch got served for being a bitch... life's a bitch.

I was forced to watch Harry Potter 1 by a woman I was fucking some 10 years ago. It was a horrendous movie. Truly awful. "You will love this because you like adventure and sci fi. etc" she said. Well she clearly never appreciated my critical brain.  

I am glad she didn't force you to watch the wrong version of Harry potter.