The best advice in the first 30,931 pages of the Wall Observer, Jay provided to me personally:
(if that might be something that you are considering to be an issue to have at least 1 BTC in your "cold storage" or whatever might be your goals).
“To a Mouse”Oh, my...
Haven't shared this with anyone who knows me IRL (though I have many Crypto Friends) and really wanted to share this with all of you.
I made a good amount of profits in Binance Futures (IK,
Leverage trading is risky but I only did x3 for all the trades)
just by believing on my own ideas and analysis.
I know this is not a big amount of money for many of you here but
believe me, I have turned like $3k to $17k with just simple trades. The best being this week, a short from $31k to $22k.
I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.
Not a flex or something,
just wanted to show everyone what you can achieve by believing in yourself.
Ignore my handwriting though, spent most of my life being a keyboard warrior.
I was starting to contemplate that a course might be coming soon
Oh my.
I wasn’t paying attention to ImThour’s posts yesterday. (Not ignoring him. Just skimming WO.)
Wow.Now, I better understand this personal attack which seemed to come out of nowhere:
* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.
Don’t worry, Bitcoin. We still love you. We will always love you. Please don’t be so sad.
I want my bitcoins back. To have and to hold. Forever.Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you
getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when
you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.
So irritating.I suppose it
was irritating, for someone who had been trading at 3x leverage: A perpetual reminder of what could happen to him, with just a little touch of bad luck—one wrong move—one little mistake.
Guess what? I started out at leverage much lower than 3x! It is hard to give it an exact number, because I was keeping assets aside to cover if necessary; it was closer to 2x, with a plan for how to deleverage if anything went wrong. Anyway, that is how it
started!But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
For promis’d joy.
I was tempted to challenge him, to egg him on to apply some leverage to the shiny new 1 BTC he had recently announced acquiring. I know that he would have a good chance to make
fantastically high profits that way—for awhile. But I am not that cruel.
I know what happened to my shiny new 1 BTC purchase. I wouldn’t want to incite anyone to lose precious bitcoins on margin—unless I outright
hate that person. I don’t hate ImThour: He has not given me adequate cause to wish him
to end up like this.
(Though who knows? Maybe he can handle it better than I can. Perhaps he is much smarter than I am, much savvier—and I am just a jealous loser who got wiped out because I “don't know shit about Trading”. Well, I admit that I am not a trading expert—by my own standards, I only know much, much more than a newbie. Now, maybe I have sour grapes—Jay, didn’t you already accuse me of being “bitter”?—maybe I am so vindictive that I want to deprive ImThour of more leveraged profits, which he rightly deserves for his superior trading insights. I am only trying to mess with his mind; he believes in himself, and he knows much better than I do, right? If so, then he will soon be rolling in thousands of BTC and millions of dollars—just laughing at me. Well, maybe... He is free to believe whatever he wants, for I do not care about his opinion.
)
Therefore, I simply made a few posts
intended to put him in his place with his insults, and started skimming by his posts.
I hadn’t noticed the above when I wrote this, with attendant details (and some other recent posts with more details):
Thus it came to pass that I almost got the opportunity to come to WO, and brag to y’all about how margin trading is sort of awesomely profitable sometimes for those blessed by the Goddess of Fortune. But she is a fickle mistress, with a streak of cold cruelty. Beware her temper. If you think that Bitcoin is volatile, take pause to perpend her mood swings! Accordingly, luck is absolutely the most volatile asset in the universe.
As such, if I had hypothetically come in here to brag about my lucky margin trade, Jay would have been perfectly justified to batslap me for being a gambler masquerading as an “investor”.
So, Jay: I am a betting man! I don’t have any money to bet right now; let’s call this a gentleman’s wager.
Do you want to bet with me on whether or not ImThour will quit while he’s ahead? I think he won’t. (You can insert your own analogies about drug addicts.)
The saddest part for me is that I care about Bitcoin so much that I refused to sell BTC when I should have. Multiple times (only the last of which was on Heater’s advice, as you remember). And I am against shorting Bitcoin, period (though I would not mind shorting the perp). Now, ImThour has orders of magnitude more BTC than I do. Life ain’t fair. C’est la vie !
The death_wish CasinoI assuredly have
by far the biggest ego of anyone here. Or anywhere.
There are two kinds of people with huge egos: The aggressive, domineering go-getters who achieve extreme success, and the losers who blow up their lives with arrogant stupidity. One is rare; the other is commonplace. A huge ego is what programmers call “necessary but not sufficient” for extreme success. My understanding of this distinction perhaps may give me some chances here.
Speaking of chances, one of my longtime dreams is to open my own casino. The crypto-gambling milieu has become so corrupt; it’s sad. I fancy building an old-school Bitcoin dice site—of course, I don’t mind letting people bet their altcoins, too; the more gambling, the better! I even have my own ideas for improving the state of the art in cryptographic Provably Fair gaming, and a few ideas for designing new games of chance.
I am naturally gifted with a big enough ego to be a hotshot casino magnate. And I
love the mathematics of gambling
sufficiently to keep myself firmly on the EV+ side of every bet. Gambling fascinates me. I
study gambling—mathematically; and I
study gamblers—psychologically.
When I have significant BTC again, I would take pleasure in offering others the opportunity to win my BTC. C’mon! Don’t be shy! Get lucky, and you can take my money! I’m a good sport; and I would even enjoy making payouts. I mean that sincerely. Paying out to winners is what keeps ’em coming. The casino must be
fun, with lots of people winning lots of my BTC. Keep ’em coming!
I am now highly motivated to work hard and build up a new BTC HODLing—so that I can bankroll payouts to winners! A gambler’s dream is the big win. It happens sometimes, and I am happy to give it to the winners.
My dream is to be the house:
The death_wish Casino.How’s
that for a gambling addiction?
Miscellaneous...
In the end, you do need to figure out the comfort level of those kinds of balances for yourself, and if you are comfortable with what you are doing and how you are approaching your various risk managing matters including the level upon which you are building for your future (if that might be something that you are considering to be an issue to have at least 1 BTC in your "cold storage" or whatever might be your goals).
Ironically, what
most got me in trouble was a perverse manifestation of risk-aversion. I do alts. It will not surprise you to hear that I have sometimes lost BTC in alts. Although I always managed the risk in a rational way, and I was overall quite profitable, I am mindful of the WO joke: “Q: How do you make 10 BTC from alts? A: Start with 150 BTC.” It is hard to find alt opportunities to outrun BTC, even for awhile; and I
have taken some losses. By the time you hear about an altcoin that did 100x against BTC, or whatever, it is obviously too late to buy in: That is the time to be taking BTC profits.
So, new plan—starting with a small amount of BTC: Use BTC as collateral, borrow $, buy altcoin. If the altcoin fails, use other means to pay down the depreciating dollars while keeping the appreciating BTC. Great theory! In theory, this avoids ever losing any BTC.
I tried a few things at once. Getting clever with debt and leverage. I thought I had it all figured out—all calculated so that I could cover any losses, and survive any realistically likely drops in the market. My ultimate goal: Never, ever spend any BTC again.
Always keeping at least 1 BTC in cold storage is a great idea.
Part of the reason that I participate in this forum is to attempt to ongoingly figure out myself, and part of my own understanding of comfort will sometimes come through interacting with others, but I would not even claim to have it all worked out.. and maybe having to set my orders and reset them 6 times or more since we dropped below $35k.. (in early May) is evidence of some of my attempts to align and realign.. imperfect as it sometimes can be.
yes, there are other things going on in life too.. but you fucks have to quit posting so frequently in recent times... #justsaying (self-reflection of the pot calling the kettle black)
Well, I hope that our interactions provide plentiful opportunity for figuring.
It's becoming evident that Bitcoin will keep on going up and down. Now the question is how low it will go before it starts going back up again. Although with a looming recession and shortages it would make sense for people to pull money out of Bitcoin and into real-world goods like food and housing.
I doubt that "makes sense" to very many people who actually know anything about bitcoin which may well just leave no coiners and you.. as the ones without bitcoin.
Beyond the basic prudence of keeping food in store, prepper-style, I fail to see how more or less perishable items are a good store of wealth. Perhaps if you’re poor. When you are on the brink of starvation, a store of food is more valuable than gold. Is that PokestarFan’s plan?
Just musing aloud... funny how capital has been moving into housing for awhile, seeking a nonexistent safehaven as economies blow up with inflation...
Just musing aloud... funny that the “Great Crash” with effects memorialized in the Genesis Block was caused by a bubble in the housing market. Speaking of leverage:
That was a hell of a leveraged bubble! Subprime mortgages on overvalued real estate.
Wham! The implosion of an overleveraged market took down big banks. Ergo, bailouts... Not saying it’s comparable to now—not saying it’s not—just musing aloud.
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