Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

So I can see shit has really hit the fan and there's blood in the streets etc... whining noobs everywhere... feels like I'm back in 2018   or 2014?  

Anyway, brethren, you know what you need to do now, right? HODL!  

Of course HODL, it would be stupid to sell at these levels.

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[OutOfMemory]

When Lambo Barrow?

That suggests a pun, for those who are now struggling to avoid liquidation by collateralizing their family heirlooms, wives, souls, etc. on margin.  Anyway, barrows are too expensive a means of transportation for those who have borrowed.

FYI, I always disliked “WEN LAMBO” type of talk; and I never would have wasted precious bitcoins on a show-off auto.  I guess that just makes this funnier—dollhouse-sized finances may afford a full-size rusty bicycle:

At least your bike got rubber tires, a saddle and all that  

Yeah, next coming an under 20k variant looking more like a Flintstone-style vehicle?  

Yes, but the unicycle version of it  
Honestly, my average BTC price is $14k $11k, and this amount is not even adjusted to inflation rates.
Still no sweat.  

EDIT: FTFY, division error.

[BitcoinBunny]

[empowering]

steady...............

[AlcoHoDL]

When Lambo Barrow?

That suggests a pun, for those who are now struggling to avoid liquidation by collateralizing their family heirlooms, wives, souls, etc. on margin.  Anyway, barrows are too expensive a means of transportation for those who have borrowed.

FYI, I always disliked “WEN LAMBO” type of talk; and I never would have wasted precious bitcoins on a show-off auto.  I guess that just makes this funnier—dollhouse-sized finances may afford a full-size rusty bicycle:

At least your bike got rubber tires, a saddle and all that  

Most importantly, there's plenty of rusty, tubular metal parts. If you know what I mean.

@death_wish: aim for one (1) BTC. This should be enough to set you up for life. Now is a golden opportunity to get it at a very low (relatively speaking) price point.

[serveria.com]

Just a quick look at the graphs - OMG last 12 weeks in red (ok ok one nano teeny-tiny green dildo there somethere). Last dildo looks particularly frightening. Will $20k stand?  

[OutOfMemory]

...plenty of rusty, tubular metal parts.

Hodler's finest 
Gotta run, see you at $16k 

[somac.]

Just a quick look at the graphs - OMG last 12 weeks in red (ok ok one nano teeny-tiny green dildo there somethere). Last dildo looks particularly frightening. Will $20k stand?  

It can't hold, expect 18k in the near term I reckon.

[death_wish]

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

gambling addiction

Question or judgment?

I intended to correct something I told Jay (need to catch up with his posts):  Technically, I do have a gambling habit.  I have profited before from investing BTC in casino bankrolls, and I wish to do so again.  Technically, it is gambling:  The house takes the EV+ side of the EV- bet offered to players.  The truism that “the house always wins” is incorrect:  The house often loses bets, but its average converges on profit for the same mathematical reason that winning players eventually fall into losses.  I said that I never gambled, and I didn’t even think of it in this context, because investing in a casino bankroll is not what most people mean by “gambling”.

I have never gambled even one satoshi of my own BTC on the EV- side.

[somac.]

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

gambling addiction

Question or judgment?

I intended to correct something I told Jay (need to catch up with his posts):  Technically, I do have a gambling habit.  I have profited before from investing BTC in casino bankrolls, and I wish to do so again.  Technically, it is gambling:  The house takes the EV+ side of the EV- bet offered to players.  The truism that “the house always wins” is incorrect:  The house often loses bets, but its average converges on profit for the same mathematical reason that winning players eventually fall into losses.  I said that I never gambled, and I didn’t even think of it in this context, because investing in a casino bankroll is not what most people mean by “gambling”.

I have never gambled even one satoshi of my own BTC on the EV- side.

Question. No offence, I didn't mean anything by it.

[pakhitheboss]

Where will it go? Already 20k and counting backwards. I am not expecting it to go below 20k. I think some institutional investor might come to its rescue at that level.

[somac.]

Where will it go? Already 20k and counting backwards. I am not expecting it to go below 20k. I think some institutional investor might come to its rescue at that level.

Expect the unexpected, you'll feel better that way when/if it happens.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

~35% portfolio = BTC

I'm not sure how I took the extremely bold step, but now I'm 80% in BTC.

40% long-term stash and 40% short-term (for a bounce to $30k or something).

After a few years of hodling you will realize you are 99.99% in Btc because the value just keeps climbing

[death_wish]

Hold onto your Mcdonald's hats 20k is about to go.

At least we have decoupled from the Nasdaq, lol.

Nah, all those "i am waiting for $20k to buy bitcorn" nocoiners will finally save us. probably [NOT. —D.W.]

FTFY.

I called one of those yesterday, and told him to get ready to buy ASAP if it’s not already too late to get set up in time.  Reminded him of what he said before about $20k.  Reply:  It may go lower.

This same nocoiner got into an argument with me in 2018 at $3k.  “It will go to zero.”  He still refuses to admit that he was mistaken not to buy at $3k.

“I will buy at $20k” nocoiners are nocoiners for a reason.

Edit:  I know you were being sarcastic, but I replied seriously to that little “probably”.

[somac.]

https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1536956979847090176?cxt=HHwWgMC-rdyOr9QqAAAA



https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1496638663572271106

[ivomm]

There are some signs the bottom is 20K-ish. At least for now. Who knows what company will be liquidated next and crash the market. Although this is not directly related to BTCitcoin, the fact that any collapsing shitcoin can trigger such a crash is creating additional FUD than usual. It will take time for the people to forget about these events and restore their trust. But people have short memory. I guess after 3 years we will see the same story repeating: Because of the supply shock and mass adoption BTCitcoin will rise to new heights. Meanwhile the new defi, doge, nft, etc. will emerge attracting many n00bs who think getting rich is very easy and you don't need BTCitcoin for that. And then again the ponzis will blow up causing billions of losses, tears and tragedies. So, knowing this we should continue our silent accumulation of precious BTCitcoins. Now almost everyone may get a whole coin. This is not a chance to be missed. The whales and institutions won't miss it. So, if the price falls below 20K it will be for a very short period.

[buwaytress]

@ImThour Sobs despairingly at good-old-loyal-boi 200MA. It's not over yet but agree, Fed news will move something big. Everyone's expecting up to a full point, majority 0.75 so anything more than that and we'll definitely visit 16k. I'm hoping Powell does a silly and we get half point instead, then we find some 30k respite.

Doesn't matter in the long run, but I'd really like to be not-so-stressed right now heh.

[empowering]

If 20k falls, 14K could be max pain 



(or in a crazy zany world max torture point 11.5k ish....)

[somac.]

@ImThour Sobs despairingly at good-old-loyal-boi 200MA. It's not over yet but agree, Fed news will move something big. Everyone's expecting up to a full point, majority 0.75 so anything more than that and we'll definitely visit 16k. I'm hoping Powell does a silly and we get half point instead, then we find some 30k respite.

Doesn't matter in the long run, but I'd really like to be not-so-stressed right now heh.

I don't think the basis point increase matters, it's more what the Fed says. With the ECB having a emergency meeting, the Fed would have to be considering this very carefully.