Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

Casualties of this bear so far:

1. Terra/Luna
2. Celsius
3. 3AC
4. ?

no Lehman size yet and might not be.
See more about 3AC:
https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536902115540742144
I also don't care for the actual entities, but this DID affect bitcoin, you are right about that.

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[Wilhelm]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

It's easy running a shitty crypto company when the value is always going up.
These liquidations are a good warning to investors and shitcoin creators.

First we had the shitty exchanges phase, it has forced exchanges to take security very very serious...
This will mature the world of crypto even more...

[somac.]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

It's easy running a shitty crypto company when the value is always going up.
These liquidations are a good warning to investors and shitcoin creators.

First we had the shitty exchanges phase, it has forced exchanges to take security very very serious...
This will mature the world of crypto even more...

You're right, but the pain in the meantime sucks.

[Wilhelm]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

Casualties of this bear so far:

1. Terra/Luna
2. Celsius
3. 3AC
4. ?

no Lehman size yet and might not be.
I also don't care for the actual entities, but this DID affect bitcoin, you are right about that.

USDD is unpegging

[Wilhelm]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

It's easy running a shitty crypto company when the value is always going up.
These liquidations are a good warning to investors and shitcoin creators.

First we had the shitty exchanges phase, it has forced exchanges to take security very very serious...
This will mature the world of crypto even more...

You're right, but the pain in the meantime sucks.

No pain, no gain 

[Franctoshi]

Here is an 'interesting" suggestion re new poll on WO:

How much are you currently losing "on paper" from the ATH in your current bitcoin position (not counting the profit/loss from earlier sells)

1. less than $1K
2. between $1k and $10K
3. between $10K and 100K
3. between $100K and $1 mil
4. between $1mil and $10mil
5. between $10mil and $100mil
6. Above $100mil

Not sure if people would be honest in their answers, but am curious to see the spread anyway.
EDIT I also think that it is more interesting to measure from the ATH instead of the profit/loss since every individual buy price is different, but ATH is the same for everyone.

Bitcoin is superior, doesn't makes anymore to me pricing it in dollar (fiat)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

This push at the lows must be due to the latest leverage shitcoin industry collapse. 3ac https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104?cxt=HHwWgMDSjYu5itQqAAAA


Bunch of cowboys, the lot of them. I don't care that they are failing but I do care that BTC is dragged down with them.

Casualties of this bear so far:

1. Terra/Luna
2. Celsius
3. 3AC
4. ?

no Lehman size yet and might not be.
I also don't care for the actual entities, but this DID affect bitcoin, you are right about that.

USDD is unpegging

Was thinking exactly that.



https://twitter.com/ByzGeneral/status/1536814320134365188?cxt=HHwWiIC91eqe7tMqAAAA

[becoin]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

[somac.]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

[ImThour]

Bitcoin Summary by CryptoQuant -

1. Higher Selling Pressure on Exchanges
2. Low Buying Pressure on ETFs
3. Miners selling moderately to cover costs
4. Possible Trend Reversal


https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/summary

[death_wish]

ImThour’s TA is to astrology as quantitative finance is to astronomy.

Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.

I am accustomed to receiving such complaints from low-IQ illiterate anthropoids, ImThour.  So as for you.  Nevertheless, I am amused at your terrifically eloquent allegation that I “don't know shit about Trading”.

Folks, compare the timestamp on ImThour’s whine with the timestamp on this:

Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology

I want to make it very clear, I am not encouraging any kind of TA or day-trading strategies!

TA is astrology.  (And doubt that anyone could accuse me of low IQ—not that I care.  Cheers to ImThour for his savvy buy, but his forum account personal text is nonsense.)

[...]

I am not worried about newbies getting burned experimenting with what I meant by “Real Quant(TM)” stuff—because they can’t.  For instance, here is a screenshot from a tiny part of one page of one academic research paper in the vast field of mathematical finance—I found this some time ago, when I first got curious about how professional market maker bots work:



LOL, I am not worried about newbies getting burned messing with that!

If I could get wrecked playing with margin, then moon-eyed newbies have no hope whatsoever!


So, how the bloody hell did I, of all people, get into this mess?

It did not all happen at once.  I started with little risks, which blew up into huge risks.  I made a very few bad decisions, which I could have easily avoided; those in turn necessitated other bad decisions, when I was caught in a perpetual entanglement of dilemmas with no good options, no way out.  Trapped.  Desperate.  Under pressure.

If it could happen to me, then newbies are lambs to the slaughter.

—This was 2/2 written earlier.  It got split out from my other post, where it did not properly belong.  Now pulled up and posted, because ImThour is citing sources that abuse the word “quant”:

Bitcoin Summary by CryptoQuant -

1. Higher Selling Pressure on Exchanges
2. Low Buying Pressure on ETFs
3. Miners selling moderately to cover costs
4. Possible Trend Reversal


https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/summary

That is not quantitative finance, you ill-educated doofus.

Nice index of sentiment, though.  So quantitative of people’s feelings.

On the face of that graphic, it is evident that “CryptoQuant” knows as much about quantitative finance as it does about cryptography—or even cryptocurrency, for that matter.

[somac.]

Bitcoin Summary by CryptoQuant -

1. Higher Selling Pressure on Exchanges
2. Low Buying Pressure on ETFs
3. Miners selling moderately to cover costs
4. Possible Trend Reversal


https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/summary

Why possible trend reversal? is it just because there has already been lots of selling? Low buying pressure is not a good look.

IMO everything depends on the upcoming Fed meeting. If the Fed gets this wrong I reckon we'll have a credit crisis in a very short timeframe. The credit crisis won't just be banks/corporations/mortgages this time either, it will be developed countries, Japan and the EU. If Powel is overly hawkish, the Yen is going to collapse causing a tonne of fallout, and the PIIGS credit markets will be cactus.

I would be surprised if the USA, EU and Japan's central bank haven't been having secret meetings together the last few days. But then again these guys think so highly of themselves they probably think they are just going to pull through without a scratch.

[becoin]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

[somac.]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

Yes, but they still affect sentiment to a massive degree. When they reverse sentiment will go nuts and assets will skyrocket. If they don't ever reverse, many countries will end up like Sri Lanka and lending will cease as there will be no worthwhile collateral anymore. When the emperor has no clothes sentiment is everything.

I would also not say structural changes either, but rather political. Rate of inflation right now is decresing in everything except energy and food. Reverse what was done to Russia and end the ESG bullshit so we can pump fossil fuels again and inflation will vanish. At least for a while anyway.

[death_wish]

Bitcoin Summary by CryptoQuant -

1. Higher Selling Pressure on Exchanges
2. Low Buying Pressure on ETFs
3. Miners selling moderately to cover costs
4. Possible Trend Reversal


https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/summary

Why possible trend reversal? is it just because there has already been lots of selling? Low buying pressure is not a good look.

Because astrologers make a generally probable call every time they say something specific and objectively testable.  People remember the good predictions, and forget the bad predictions.  (Otherwise, they stick to vague predictions that can be retroactively adapted and reinterpreted to match reality.)

Bitcoin has previously hit 200 WMA in 4-year cycles.  Predict that we hit 200 WMA, find some face-in-the-clouds trendlines that seem to indicate we’re heading in that direction, then proclaim an accurate prediction if it hits.  If not, never mention it.

For some (non)reason, people generally expect that Bitcoin will turn around fast when it hits 200 WMA.  Besides “past performance does not guarantee future results”, there is a precedent to the contrary:  The month-long scrape along and under the 200 WMA line in August–September 2015.  However, most people expect it to bounce off 200 WMA.

Therefore, predict a “possible trend reversal”.  Duh.  Of course, many people may expect a trend reversal; and anyway, a trend reversal is always possible!  I can make that call right now, without consulting any data other than “we are now below 200 WMA”.  If it comes true, does that make me a market-forecasting genius?

If it happens, proclaim an accurate prediction.  If it doesn’t, who cares?

This is how non-metaphorical astrologers and professional “psychics” always work.

[death_wish]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

Yes, but they still affect sentiment to a massive degree. When they reverse sentiment will go nuts and assets will skyrocket. If they don't ever reverse, many countries will end up like Sri Lanka and lending will cease as there will be no worthwhile collateral anymore. When the emperor has no clothes sentiment is everything.

I would also not say structural changes either, but rather political. Rate of inflation right now is decresing in everything except energy and food. Reverse what was done to Russia and end the ESG bullshit so we can pump fossil fuels again and inflation will vanish. At least for a while anyway.

I have no idea what you are talking about.  Energy?  Politics?  Wha?

To edumacate myself, I will ask Hunter Biden his opinion.  I hear that he knows things about energy politics in that region.

[somac.]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

Yes, but they still affect sentiment to a massive degree. When they reverse sentiment will go nuts and assets will skyrocket. If they don't ever reverse, many countries will end up like Sri Lanka and lending will cease as there will be no worthwhile collateral anymore. When the emperor has no clothes sentiment is everything.

I would also not say structural changes either, but rather political. Rate of inflation right now is decresing in everything except energy and food. Reverse what was done to Russia and end the ESG bullshit so we can pump fossil fuels again and inflation will vanish. At least for a while anyway.

I have no idea what you are talking about.  Energy?  Politics?  Wha?

To edumacate myself, I will ask Hunter Biden his opinion.  I hear that he knows things about energy politics in that region.

He sure does. Also, be sure to get 10% of your education from the big guy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[becoin]

Blood on the streets is STRONG BUY. Avoid margin trading!

Absolutely, don't blow all your dollars though as things can still go lower. And if it doesn't go lower, that means the Fed has reversed course and you can buy the beginning of a major multi year uptrend.

What will the Fed do doesn't matter since they don't fight inflation anymore. All they do is trying to manage your expectations about inflation. And this time it is not enough, because this inflation is caused by structural changes in the economy.

Yes, but they still affect sentiment to a massive degree. When they reverse sentiment will go nuts and assets will skyrocket. If they don't ever reverse, many countries will end up like Sri Lanka and lending will cease as there will be no worthwhile collateral anymore. When the emperor has no clothes sentiment is everything.

I would also not say structural changes either, but rather political. Rate of inflation right now is decresing in everything except energy and food. Reverse what was done to Russia and end the ESG bullshit so we can pump fossil fuels again and inflation will vanish. At least for a while anyway.

Rate of inflation decreasing in everything except energy and food is exactly the sign of a structural change in economy. From now on industrial sector will be more important than financial sector. Production of food and energy will be more important than printing money and allocating them in a way so that the prices of food and energy be suppressed and artificially high standard of living be demonstrated to people.

Russia will never go back where it was. Now they know what are the benefits of being independent from the dollar and dollar derivatives like the euro, pound, yen etc.