I just hope that someone buys Celsius for $1+ resuming obligations so we can start a "real" recovery to @dragonvslinux target (which I concur with) of 47-49K.
Pronto, please.
No matter what some of you say, the bear markets are no fun.
I'm still very dubious of any "real" recovery happening anytime soon however, before getting quoted too heavily for any future price targets
$47K to $49K is merely a fib-based bear market target for a 2016/2019 style bounce, whether it be a dead cat (2019) or not (2016), whether it happens this year or not, whether price get's to $12K, or not.
I do think it's been 13 months since the bear market begun, but realise it's only been 7 months since ATH, so fuck knows what's going on in that respect. I do think price has corrected more than enough (75% / 20% below 200 WMA), but despite how you paint it, price action looks terrible. First ever Monthly close below the 50 Month MA with one of the worst ever Monthly candle in Bitcoin's history not seen since 2011? Yikes. At least someone bought up the last hour to make it sure it didn't become the
worst ever month for Bitcoin I guess. I otherwise think my cat has a better clue where price is going right now as I remain neutral.
The only hopium in the immediate future is that price hasn't made a new low since closing below the 200 WMA, but that can change quite quickly. Back above $23K I'd be short-term bullish, but without a good 3-6 months of consolidation between $20K and $30K, price risks getting heavily rejected from $30K and falling lower at a later date, to the "dreaded" $10K to $14K levels. Think I'd be a bear with my trading account around $30K at this point in time, even if price does eventually form support around 200WMA or $25K levels. It'd totally be worth the risk/reward as long as I keep my stash
well away from a trade. Especially shorting with satoshis as opposed to fiat currency. The fact I still have my trading account in satoshis from shitcoin trading is starting to feel somewhat degenerate unless I do something useful with it.
By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):
In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.
Seems to me that there is something fundamentally wrong (or off) with using gold as a comparison when we are talking about an emergent asset class versus a 2,000 year old asset class..
This is one of the major fundamental flaws (contradictions) of this analysis for sure, despite wanting to avoid such a comparison. As you put it, Gold is a relic, it's rise wasn't during a period of emergence.
This isn't intended to compare Gold to Bitcoin today, of really their prices in the past, as I think they are too dissimilar. But arguably comparing the de-pegging of the dollar to Gold in the 70s and the rally that occurred that decade to the creation of a mathematically regulated monetary policy such as Bitcoin a decade ago, could be something to consider here.
The only real comparison is Bitcoin's 1 year bull markets end with 2 year bear markets, so there has been a reliable time ratio of 1:2 (bull:bear). So what happens if a 10 year bull market ends is the real question.
On another note, Gold looks like it's officially failing as an inflation hedge. If it looks like a bear flag, smells like a bear flag, it's probably a bear flag.
Can't hold the 50 Week MA to save itself. Put a fork in it I say, it's done. Also, looks like double top syndrome
I only reference this as were going through the "sell everything" phase, similar to March 2020 imo. Bitcoin dropped, stocks dropped, gold dropped. It's what emerged from it that really matters.
I do wonder if Mr Schiff will point out to his disciples that price can now return to $1700 support, and if that fails, the target is $1500. Probably not.
Poll
