Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

In the old days I would face temptation to sell during BTC crashes. Now, I am faced with a new type of temptation: Wanting to borrow fiat to buy more BTC.

What a familiar feeling. Have this feeling for the last 10 years at least.  

That’s what I said at $35k–$38k.  That is why, in addition to BTC-collateralized debt taken for other purposes, I made significant leveraged buys in the range of $35,000 to about $38,800.  I felt smug and superior to all of the n00bs who got rekt buying BTC on margin at $67k.  By that logic, if there is any time to open such a position, it is in a bear market.  Instead of getting FOMO for green candlesticks like a n00b, I got excited at red candlesticks.  Cheap discount bitcoins!

When I had already exhausted my resources to buy BTC for cash, I attempted timing the bottom on leverage.

Welcome to my dollhouse.

For months, it felt like a smart bet that the bottom was already in at $32k—right?  Anyway, I felt sufficiently non-stupid as long as I could keep my liquidation price below 200 WMA.  (Which I did, far below—before some other things went wrong.  The best-laid plans of mice and men...)

The friend who advised me to cover later at $35k warned me that unpredictable black-swan events could crash BTC to any arbitrarily low level.  He told me so.  When I said, “What about 200 WMA,” his response was one of patient condescension.  He was right.  My condescension towards the psychotics who still cling to the myth of the 200 WMA “cycle bottom” is now impatient, and outright contumelious.

Oh, you mean to borrow against other assets in other asset classes?  Like maybe your home, if you own one?  I may have lost my BTC, but even I am not dumb enough ever even to imagine trying that—not even in the hypothetical—no way, never.  Food and shelter come first.  You don’t take that for granted, if you have ever lacked for them.

The 2008 global financial meltdown was partly caused by a housing market bubble.  It led to mass-foreclosures, i.e. liquidations of homes bought long on excessive leverage—including some who were not “subprime”.  It was the proximate cause of “The Times 03/Jan/2009”.

Now, in 2022, I have been musing on the possibility that there may be regional, perhaps even some national housing market bubbles, as capital fleeing inflation has ballooned housing prices.  It will be fun when those pop.  Well, not fun for those who wind up homeless.

Maybe leverage your stocks to buy BTC?  The stock market has been only a casino for most of the past century—ever since (a) the managerial revolution resulted in irresponsible executives, and (b) the market transitioned from a place to buy and hold for income from dividends, to a near-Ponzi-tier market for mere price speculation.  Anyone who owns stocks is a degenerate gambler, masquerading as an “investor”.  So, have at it!

Or are you actually Michael Saylor?  He does have enough assets to survive a BTC drop all the way to zero.  He is probably not feeling very good about his debt-backed BTC purchases.  But at least, he will be fine.

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[Biodom]

Damn bear markets are long & boring. The only positive is these are the times that anybody with a brain lays the foundations for massive future success & wealth by buying. It’s quite surreal isn’t it, the way that most of us think compared to the average pleb in life. In a raging bull market lots of us are selling, confirming a comfortable life for us & our families, putting cash aside to buy back at a big discount when the bear market comes.
So many idiots buy during the bullish times & sell during times like this. It must be part of the brain where we are wired differently, our way of thinking. What kind of a moron is selling at these prices? Seemingly quite a lot judging by the price. Some people are just ngmi.

Any way, looking forward to 2024 & 2025, all the memes & happiness in this thread. {insert Ghana’s dancing pallbearer's gif).

Keep buying brothers of the wall. I do not want to see any mindrusting here, that’s an order!

I like the spirit, but timing is an issue re "in a raging bull market lots of us are selling". It's a pure guess on when you want to sell once it goes over previous ATH, I assume.
Immediately? Upon 2X from prior ATH? 3X?....not an easy answer. You sold and won (this time), but if it went to, say, 180K, the decision to sell at 60 wouldn't be so smart, right? Or maybe one shoud activate a steady small sell orders upon reaching some number and stick to it?
All I am saying is that the NEXT time it could be quite different (or not).
Now, when is a good time to buy? many bought at 50, 40, 30, now 20K. Was it a good buy at, say, 30K? Very well may be....in 2-4 years or so.
Personally, I did not sell any bitcoin at 60 to current, perhaps foolishly, albeit I took heavy profits in something else, so the cycle was not without profits.
I did take some profits in btc too early in 2017, so, maybe this affected my hesitation of selling above 60K, perhaps.

Re 'morons' who are selling....a whole gamut of those: late retail, leveraged a-holes, hedge funds who "have" to sell, etc.
In fact, i think that some major long term holders sold between 20K and 17.5K. Why? because bitcoin NEVER dropped below prior ATH before.
When something new happened, they took notice. Besides, some whale who bought at $20 does not really care of the price difference between 20 and 60K, he still made 1000X (not 3000X, sure).The idea that goes through their head is probably this one: IF btc went below prior ATH and is scraping just below 200 week MA, what else "new" it can do? Not relevant for me because I decided to play this one as long as I can while being mentally prepared for a low probability of even zero. It would be sad, but another experience of the gestalt.

no mindtrusting, sure.

[eXPHorizon]

Incorrect. This is a gay male funhouse.

i aint gay... dont be callin me gay......

[ImThour]

Voyager temporarily suspends trading, deposits, withdrawals, and loyalty rewards.


https://www.investvoyager.com/blog/voyager-update-july-1-2022/

[Biodom]

another one, another one...bites the dust.
dropping like flies...hopefully, we are close the end than to a beginning with those entities.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

In sceen
B
T
C
Holders VS Economy Manipulators

Source: Twitter Related to Finance & Politics

[death_wish]

LTC just got dumped from some exchanges due to the privacy issue.  BTC doesn't have this issue.

If anyone wonders why I quoted Tyler Winklevoss’ vocal support for Zcash when it was hit with a stupid FUD-delisting from Bittrex, or why I point here and in other threads to what Adam Back has said about fungibility:  This is why.

The above-quoted statement is mere FUD, without details.  No time to add details.

We need to get strong privacy in BTC, ASAP.  Those who are thoughtless and shortsighted don’t see how this has been a war of precedents from the start; and they lack any perspective on the big picture, long-term view.

Bitcoin set a bad precedent, just because the needed technology had not yet been developed.  Satoshi himself was interested in ways to make transactions unlinkable and untraceable, but he didn’t know how.  Now, the burden of fixing this problem has fallen on altcoins.

Some excellent precedents have been set for privacy.  Besides privacy coins, I don’t think that any exchange will dare to target Ethereum with a FUD-delisting over Tornado.Cash and Aztec Protocol, which provide much stronger privacy than LTC.  But someday, strong privacy needs to come home to Bitcoin—preferably before BTC fungibility gets so wrecked that it causes irreparable economic damage in Bitcoin.  Lack of fungibility destroys confidence in a currency; that is an old and timeless monetary principle, which BTC defies at its peril.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

“The people will rise”, “the proles will rise”—this is one of the most damaging myths in history.

The people do not rise.  The proles do not rise.  But empty talk about it appeals to the conceits of the masses; it is a mirage of Hopium.  And this type of propaganda helps to paralyze serious-minded activists, if they are so naïve as to buy it.

No revolution in all of history ever resulted from the people rising of their own accord.

If you don’t get it, I don’t have time to explain it to you.

Source: Twitter Related to Finance & Politics

Um, where?  “Source” usually means a link and/or a name, unless it is something private in the manner of “(private correspondence)” or “journalistic anonymous sources”.

[cAPSLOCK]

“The people will rise”, “the proles will rise”—this is one of the most damaging myths in history.

I think you are right about this, but to play devil's advocate the "it's different this time" angle is the one world communication system.

But back to the other side... the rulers have not only access to that, but seemingly control over it.

[348Judah]

No revolution in all of history ever resulted from the people rising of their own accord.

I think i understand this as a personal fight for a freedom amd not collective one could give a rising, the so called manipulators will never gibe room for rising on every individual, but he that finds that opportunity for an escape through bitcoin is free indeed, this is what the government and the so called economy manipulators feast on, our wealth, profits interests, rights, and strength, that's why freedom isn't given but taken, soon bitcoin will rise to end their feast on us but only those that take courage in rising together with it will have the benefits thereof.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Went for the more Upscale Biltema food today.

There's still a 2.5 Mb limit 



 Looks delicious!

Thanks for fixing it, I don't know how to do these things, especially on a phone.

[Arriemoller]

Went for the more Upscale Biltema food today.

That DOES look fairly tasty!  Did you need some spark plugs?  Or just going for the grub?

I needed a new tap and a USB stick, they where out of the tap but I got the stick, and a burger.

The burger did look delicious, but it was pretty tasteless, it had all the right ingredients, good size meat, bacon, cheese, onion, that green stuff, tomatoes, dressing, but it all lacked in taste except for the tomato slices, I don't know how you manage to make bacon taste bland but they did it.

[xhomerx10]

LTC just got dumped from some exchanges due to the privacy issue.  BTC doesn't have this issue.

If anyone wonders why I quoted Tyler Winklevoss’ vocal support for Zcash when it was hit with a stupid FUD-delisting from Bittrex, or why I point here and in other threads to what Adam Back has said about fungibility:  This is why.

The above-quoted statement is mere FUD, without details.  No time to add details.

We need to get strong privacy in BTC, ASAP.  Those who are thoughtless and shortsighted don’t see how this has been a war of precedents from the start; and they lack any perspective on the big picture, long-term view.

Bitcoin set a bad precedent, just because the needed technology had not yet been developed.  Satoshi himself was interested in ways to make transactions unlinkable and untraceable, but he didn’t know how.  Now, the burden of fixing this problem has fallen on altcoins.

Some excellent precedents have been set for privacy.  Besides privacy coins, I don’t think that any exchange will dare to target Ethereum with a FUD-delisting over Tornado.Cash and Aztec Protocol, which provide much stronger privacy than LTC.  But someday, strong privacy needs to come home to Bitcoin—preferably before BTC fungibility gets so wrecked that it causes irreparable economic damage in Bitcoin.  Lack of fungibility destroys confidence in a currency; that is an old and timeless monetary principle, which BTC defies at its peril.

 That's a bat slap.

  I put as much effort into my reply to ImThour as he put into his analysis of a situation he thought required investigation.  I brought the matter relating the the drop in value of LTC to his attention and I assumed he could take it from there.  The perils of sending your LTC to exchanges are best left to another thread.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

OT
hmmm...
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/mystery-rocket-NASA-moon-crash-country-origin-17273903.php
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3543757-nasa-calls-mystery-rocket-crash-on-moon-highly-unusual/

Not making any connections, but if something like the ref. below occurred now, we would have a full blown panic:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1561_celestial_phenomenon_over_Nuremberg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1566_celestial_phenomenon_over_Basel

Apparently, somewhere between 1561 and 1648 many such phenomena were observed and recorded.
Do I think that all of them were just 'sun dogs'? Unlikely, but to think that someone would come to Earth's vicinity for a space fight is also quite strange.

[Torque]

another one, another one...bites the dust.
dropping like flies...hopefully, we are close the end than to a beginning with those entities.

Michael Saylor keeps stressing the importance of backtesting the collateral against the loans like Microstrategy did.

Did all these fly-by-night VC-funded crypto shitcoin derivative companies not backtest anything?

Are they all fucking stupid, or what?

Like, "Hey let's go over-leverage loans against all of our bitcoin collateral we bought at $40K-50K/btc. What could possibly go wrong?"  

It's no wonder no one should trust them with anything.

Personally, I think all these shitty crypto companies were set up to cause a crash. Because they always magically show up during bull runs, only to get margin called, liquidate and go bankrupt literally every single bear market. They are designed to distract Average Joe away from bitcoin and steal noobs money. Just like the ICOs did.

[xhomerx10]

OT
hmmm...
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/mystery-rocket-NASA-moon-crash-country-origin-17273903.php
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3543757-nasa-calls-mystery-rocket-crash-on-moon-highly-unusual/

Not making any connections, but if something like the ref. below occurred now, we would have a full blown panic:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1561_celestial_phenomenon_over_Nuremberg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1566_celestial_phenomenon_over_Basel

Apparently, somewhere between 1561 and 1648 many such phenomena were observed and recorded.
Do I think that all of them were just 'sun dogs'? Unlikely, but to think that someone would come to Earth's vicinity for a space fight is also quite strange.

Maybe the accidental discovery of psychoactive mushrooms in the Holy Roman Empire?