Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Invester]

Last year I was expecting bitcoin to drop below $15k but maybe it happens next year. But what happened in Ukraine bring inconsistencies in the world's giant economies and bitcoin becomes a safety hedge. The only untouched superpower is China and is benefitting the war in Ukraine. But at present, China is now having issues with Taiwan. Nothing would be safe soon in fiat.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/01/asia/taiwan-shoots-down-civilian-drone-kinmen-intl-hnk/index.html

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

There are more and more indicators that Bitcoin is bottoming for this cycle. I’m starting to think the market might be on its way back up before the mtgox coins are distributed. I think it would be wise to be buying the dips here and hanging onto the coins you have.

yes.. one of the indicators is so many noobs being 100% sure that we are going to see 15k, 12k, <10k....

They will probably miss the train ....and then buy shitcoins trying to make up for it....  hfsp

[Morningstarr]

I still think that when the market reaches around $17k and people open long positions, So this time we will see one last unexpected dump which will cause BTC to reach $15k or $12k. During the journey of bitcoin from $18k to $25k, everyone thought that the market would go comfortably to $30k but during that time the rising wedge broke and according to this pattern it is not possible to return before $17k when BTC reaches $17k or $18k, it will be a better idea what is the mood of the market.

Your posts are starting to turn into dweeb posts, including strawman ascribing moon-boy status to members here who have been talking about upward BTC price movements that have likely similar odds of happening as your wishful-thinking DOWNity scenario that cannot even stop in terms of wishing for $17k and cannot resist including $12k to $15k in your propositions of inevitability.

It's not my wish, after looking at the chart, drawing a few lines, and looking at some news, I'm just stating things my little brain perceives. All of us say things by looking at the possibilities and if I have to say something now, I see bitcoin going to $22k because it has successfully retested the trendline by breaking it. The 200-4H moving average is currently at $22400. If BTC successfully breaks this, we could see Bitcoin at $25k and then even $30k.

You are pretty sporadic, no?

Maybe yes

One minute you see that $17k is inevitable - and even high chances of $12k or $15k, and then a day or two later, you are all of a sudden talking about UPpity?  

The reduction in prices from $25K to $17K that I talked about was due to rising wedge and that happened quite a bit. The trend line that we have been seeing small dumps continuously was broken by Bitcoin after reaching $19500 and retested it twice and moved upwards. Yesterday when I replied to you saying that we could see Bitcoin at $22K, $25K, and maybe $30K after that, the 4H-50 MA which was at $20400 which couldn't be crossed, a small dump was seen but still, Bitcoin is above the trend line so it means there are still chances this is short term while in long term it still looks like more dump is possible.

Do you consider it helpful to be flip flopping so easily?

Price action works like this

Are you a betting man?

No, I don't like it.

Yeah, maybe I am just policing your language, but if you really do not mean that it is going down to $17k or to $15k or to $12k, then why are you saying it in this thread?

As DXY's monthly candle closes near 109, strong resistance at 107 has been broken and the weekly candle is also seen closing above 109. If this continues for the next couple of weeks and the Fed also announces an interest rate hike, the pump we'll see in the DXY after that I think Bitcoin will fall further, at least in September, nothing good is expected.

Just to let you know (or would that be Protip? there is no inevitable in bitcoin especially related to 15% more down merely because you and a bunch of reddit dweeb-twats are wishing for such down.

Likely one of the ONLY things inevitable in bitcoin is its volatility, and the inevitable aspect of bitcoin's volatility does not have a directional component - even if you are asserting such doom and gloom DOWNity BTC price matters as if they were certain when they might not even have odds that are much higher than 50%, especially since we have already been bouncing largely below the 200-Week moving average for more than 2.5 months..

The price has been above the 200-weekly moving average for almost two weeks but we saw a small dump when the daily candle broke below the 20 and 50 moving averages. Due to this, The BTC price could not maintain the support of the 200-weekly moving average so by the end of this week, it would be clearer what we should think about going forward as the support at $19K looks quite strong.

I really have doubts whether getting caught up with short-term BTC price moves is really going to be very helpful regarding figuring out if we are going to stay in our consolidation range for a while or if we are going to break in one direction or another..and you also seem to recognize that the BTC price had gotten up into the $25ks and then crashed back down to the $19ks, and sure that's about a 25% change in price, but given the whole context of where we are at, it seems that we are still just largely staying sufficiently close to our $17,593 local bottom in order that we are not yet ready to generate confidence about how likely it is that the bottom is in.. and o course, we remain still close to the bottom.. whether we are in the $19ks or even if we had gotten up to the $25ks, especially given the overall context of having such a severe correction below the 200-week moving average, and it still remains relevant that we are spending quite a bit of time below the 200-week moving average, even if you want to carve out some time in which we were not below the 200-week moving average, it comes off as a BIG SO WHAT? to me.

I don't think BTC is in some kind of consolidation movement but with each passing day we are getting closer to $17K and if it continues like this So we can see a nice move to either side as the 20 and 50 moving averages get closer to the daily candle.

Have you heard about bitcoin-related factors, or do you believe bitcoin merely jumps whenever macro-factors bark such orders at it?  

Are you completely out of bitcoin at this time, Morningstarr?  Have you retained any cornz in case the price does not go in the direction nor to the degree that you expect it to go?

Hopefully the BTC portion of your portfolio is NOT reflective of the nonsense that you are spewing... Hey.. you might being correct in your prediction, but your confidence comes off as a wee bit out of touch with reality.

Supply and demand; yes I think that things like these affects prices for either short or long term. If it doesn't, I will have to change my mind, but it doesn't matter if I am proven right or wrong, either way, I will be satisfied that more dump is not possible from here and the good days of market have come.

It seems to me that one of the most inevitable matters in regards to bitcoin's short to medium-term price performance is that it is going to continue to be volatile, so yeah for sure, it is going to feel good when we can get out of these bottom areas, and then the question still will remain about how much distance from the bottom is enough in order to start to feel confident that the bottom is in and that we are likely to be moving up from here on out..

This will only be assessed when we have missed the bottom and Bitcoin has broken at least one major resistance. For example, if $17K is the bottom, then Bitcoin needs to cross at least $26K to regain confidence of people and new money comes into the market, otherwise, if good news about the global economy starts coming, then Bitcoin is the bottom wherever it is.

Surely, I don't claim to know how to know exactly when the bottom is in, but it would seem that getting above $30k and maybe even above $35k (or wherever the 100-week moving average will be at that time), would be helpful to buil confidence, but we even know that BTC price movements are a product of both quantity of movement but also we have to account for how much time it took to get there which also likely will reflect in how much volume was traded to get the price there, too.  I guess I am thinking that we do not really have much of a proper framework to be considering how much UPPity BTC price movement we are going to need before we have confidence that the bottom is in, since we are largely still floating in BTC price territories that are close to our current bottom so the bottom still seems to be the more relevant and immediate question rather than when we might be out of it.

True, crossing the 100-week moving average would be good news and a confidence booster for everyone. However, the important point is that we do not have enough information on it.

[xhomerx10]

the world is fucked up.... nothing has ever been more clear.
magic internet money?

 No, it's not the world; it's the people.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[In the silence]

The below is EXTREMELY merit worthy.  Therefore I have extremely merited it.

Of course we are the literal choir here...  I mean seriously. If there was a choir for the Church of the Corn it would NOT be twitter.  I would not be the devs, or the miners, or El Salvador, or the podcasters.

It would be bitcointalk.org, and more specifically this thread.

Can I get a witness?

Amen, brother! 

song that rhyme Losing my religion, amen.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

[birr]

Jesus fucking Christ!

Just got another one TODAY!

WTF are these piece of Shit companies doing with their fucking stalking databases?

SAMSUNG
 

Dear Valued Customer,

At Samsung, security is a top priority. We are reaching out to inform you that Samsung recently discovered a cybersecurity incident that affected some of your information.

In late July 2022, an unauthorized third party acquired information from some of Samsung's U.S. systems. On or around August 4, 2022, we determined through our ongoing investigation that personal information of certain customers was affected.

We have taken actions to secure the affected systems, and have engaged a leading outside cybersecurity firm and are coordinating with law enforcement. We want to assure our customers that the issue did not impact Social Security numbers or credit and debit card numbers, but in some cases, may have affected information such as name, contact and demographic information, date of birth, and product registration information. The information affected for each relevant customer may vary.

At Samsung, we value the trust our customers place in our products and services ‑ trust that we have built up over many years. By working with industry ‑ leading experts, we will further enhance the security of our systems ‑ and your personal information ‑ and work to maintain the trust you have put into the Samsung brand for more than 40 years.

We regret any inconvenience this may cause you and appreciate your trust in us. We have set up an FAQ page on our website for additional questions and answers along with recommended actions.

If you'd like to check your credit report, you are entitled under U.S. law to one free credit report annually from each of the three major nationwide credit reporting agencies. More information can be found below.

If you have any questions regarding this issue, please visit our website at www.samsung.com/us/support/securityresponsecenter.
 
 

To order your free credit report, visit www.annualcreditreport.com or call toll-free at 1 877 322 8228.

  Me too.   
They force you to sign up in order to properly use the product you purchased with good money and then they don't protect your personal information.   You don't have to sign up but then you get a gimped experience and I resisted for the longest time but I needed the Galaxy Store for something...  Motherfuckers!
  Meh.  Who needs a good credit rating?  We have bitcoin.

I've had a lot of these notifications about database breaches.  My credit rating is 835.

[Renampun]

the world is fucked up.... nothing has ever been more clear.
magic internet money?

 No, it's not the world; it's the people.

hufftt, the majority of the sadness that happens in this world is because of the people themselves (who fucked up themselves)...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

A DigitalMonk

[WatChe]

There are more and more indicators that Bitcoin is bottoming for this cycle. I’m starting to think the market might be on its way back up before the mtgox coins are distributed. I think it would be wise to be buying the dips here and hanging onto the coins you have.

This is not the first nor the last bitcoin dip. There is much less risk involved in buying bitcoin at current price of 20k the at 69k.
There was too much buying without any second thought at 69k while too many questions while buying under 20k.
If you see historic data of bitcoin then it's normal for bitcoin to go 80% down from its maximum value of year.
Bitcoin is approximately 70% down from its ATH value of 69k to 20k. So this is very much normal not something never happened before.




Image source

[JayJuanGee]

Jay, try the de-caf? just a suggestion.

ok - smartie panties

Anyone going to give option to buy sub 10K  

cant fucking wait. 

If you are expecting sub $10k, you might be waiting for a while, and you might not even achieve such a thing in your lifetime.

If you feel that you don't have enough cornz in order to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, then you may well want to consider sub $19,800 (as I type) as a bargain?

There might be something wrong with you since you seem to want more of a bargain, even though you already have a bargain staring you in the face.

I still think that when the market reaches around $17k and people open long positions, So this time we will see one last unexpected dump which will cause BTC to reach $15k or $12k. During the journey of bitcoin from $18k to $25k, everyone thought that the market would go comfortably to $30k but during that time the rising wedge broke and according to this pattern it is not possible to return before $17k when BTC reaches $17k or $18k, it will be a better idea what is the mood of the market.

Your posts are starting to turn into dweeb posts, including strawman ascribing moon-boy status to members here who have been talking about upward BTC price movements that have likely similar odds of happening as your wishful-thinking DOWNity scenario that cannot even stop in terms of wishing for $17k and cannot resist including $12k to $15k in your propositions of inevitability.

It's not my wish, after looking at the chart, drawing a few lines, and looking at some news, I'm just stating things my little brain perceives. All of us say things by looking at the possibilities and if I have to say something now, I see bitcoin going to $22k because it has successfully retested the trendline by breaking it. The 200-4H moving average is currently at $22400. If BTC successfully breaks this, we could see Bitcoin at $25k and then even $30k.

You are pretty sporadic, no?

Maybe yes

One minute you see that $17k is inevitable - and even high chances of $12k or $15k, and then a day or two later, you are all of a sudden talking about UPpity?  

The reduction in prices from $25K to $17K that I talked about was due to rising wedge and that happened quite a bit. The trend line that we have been seeing small dumps continuously was broken by Bitcoin after reaching $19500 and retested it twice and moved upwards. Yesterday when I replied to you saying that we could see Bitcoin at $22K, $25K, and maybe $30K after that, the 4H-50 MA which was at $20400 which couldn't be crossed, a small dump was seen but still, Bitcoin is above the trend line so it means there are still chances this is short term while in long term it still looks like more dump is possible.

Do you consider it helpful to be flip flopping so easily?

Price action works like this

Are you a betting man?

No, I don't like it.

Yeah, maybe I am just policing your language, but if you really do not mean that it is going down to $17k or to $15k or to $12k, then why are you saying it in this thread?

As DXY's monthly candle closes near 109, strong resistance at 107 has been broken and the weekly candle is also seen closing above 109. If this continues for the next couple of weeks and the Fed also announces an interest rate hike, the pump we'll see in the DXY after that I think Bitcoin will fall further, at least in September, nothing good is expected.

Just to let you know (or would that be Protip? there is no inevitable in bitcoin especially related to 15% more down merely because you and a bunch of reddit dweeb-twats are wishing for such down.

Likely one of the ONLY things inevitable in bitcoin is its volatility, and the inevitable aspect of bitcoin's volatility does not have a directional component - even if you are asserting such doom and gloom DOWNity BTC price matters as if they were certain when they might not even have odds that are much higher than 50%, especially since we have already been bouncing largely below the 200-Week moving average for more than 2.5 months..

The price has been above the 200-weekly moving average for almost two weeks but we saw a small dump when the daily candle broke below the 20 and 50 moving averages. Due to this, The BTC price could not maintain the support of the 200-weekly moving average so by the end of this week, it would be clearer what we should think about going forward as the support at $19K looks quite strong.

I really have doubts whether getting caught up with short-term BTC price moves is really going to be very helpful regarding figuring out if we are going to stay in our consolidation range for a while or if we are going to break in one direction or another..and you also seem to recognize that the BTC price had gotten up into the $25ks and then crashed back down to the $19ks, and sure that's about a 25% change in price, but given the whole context of where we are at, it seems that we are still just largely staying sufficiently close to our $17,593 local bottom in order that we are not yet ready to generate confidence about how likely it is that the bottom is in.. and o course, we remain still close to the bottom.. whether we are in the $19ks or even if we had gotten up to the $25ks, especially given the overall context of having such a severe correction below the 200-week moving average, and it still remains relevant that we are spending quite a bit of time below the 200-week moving average, even if you want to carve out some time in which we were not below the 200-week moving average, it comes off as a BIG SO WHAT? to me.

I don't think BTC is in some kind of consolidation movement but with each passing day we are getting closer to $17K and if it continues like this So we can see a nice move to either side as the 20 and 50 moving averages get closer to the daily candle.

Have you heard about bitcoin-related factors, or do you believe bitcoin merely jumps whenever macro-factors bark such orders at it?  

Are you completely out of bitcoin at this time, Morningstarr?  Have you retained any cornz in case the price does not go in the direction nor to the degree that you expect it to go?

Hopefully the BTC portion of your portfolio is NOT reflective of the nonsense that you are spewing... Hey.. you might being correct in your prediction, but your confidence comes off as a wee bit out of touch with reality.

Supply and demand; yes I think that things like these affects prices for either short or long term. If it doesn't, I will have to change my mind, but it doesn't matter if I am proven right or wrong, either way, I will be satisfied that more dump is not possible from here and the good days of market have come.

It seems to me that one of the most inevitable matters in regards to bitcoin's short to medium-term price performance is that it is going to continue to be volatile, so yeah for sure, it is going to feel good when we can get out of these bottom areas, and then the question still will remain about how much distance from the bottom is enough in order to start to feel confident that the bottom is in and that we are likely to be moving up from here on out..

This will only be assessed when we have missed the bottom and Bitcoin has broken at least one major resistance. For example, if $17K is the bottom, then Bitcoin needs to cross at least $26K to regain confidence of people and new money comes into the market, otherwise, if good news about the global economy starts coming, then Bitcoin is the bottom wherever it is.

Surely, I don't claim to know how to know exactly when the bottom is in, but it would seem that getting above $30k and maybe even above $35k (or wherever the 100-week moving average will be at that time), would be helpful to buil confidence, but we even know that BTC price movements are a product of both quantity of movement but also we have to account for how much time it took to get there which also likely will reflect in how much volume was traded to get the price there, too.  I guess I am thinking that we do not really have much of a proper framework to be considering how much UPPity BTC price movement we are going to need before we have confidence that the bottom is in, since we are largely still floating in BTC price territories that are close to our current bottom so the bottom still seems to be the more relevant and immediate question rather than when we might be out of it.

True, crossing the 100-week moving average would be good news and a confidence booster for everyone. However, the important point is that we do not have enough information on it.

Maybe one of the differences between the way that you seem to be attempting to assess the BTC price and the way that I try to do it is that I am not getting very caught up on trying to figure out shorter-term moves, and like I already said, it seems to me that you are all over the place and I question whether you are trying to trade your seemingly flip flopping ideas? or are you just dabbling for the mere sake of sharing information?

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

<snip>

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

I have a lot of interest in how LN pool is working as a second/third layer for BTC


Bob what are your thoughts on this?

any idea on your BTC outlays vs your BTC intakes. You have been running one a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation