Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

<snip>

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

I have a lot of interest in how LN pool is working as a second/third layer for BTC


Bob what are your thoughts on this?

any idea on your BTC outlays vs your BTC intakes. You have been running one a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

There is an idea I have entertained, but have been too busy to try much of it.  Certain nodes will chew through liquidity like water... WOS for example.  So I can open a king sized channel... set fees to whatever will more than cover the two tx fees.  And then close with a profit, rinse lather, repeat.

But that feels dirty.  Not because of fees, but because of settling on the main chain over and over.  Defeats the purpose somewhat.  I think the protpcpl is where the channel balancing problems may be best addressed...  but I am not sure exactly how.  There is no reason though that we should not be able to see channels be drained and filled over and over.  Still thinking about it.

[cAPSLOCK]

Since you had been talking out of both sides of your mouth in regards to whether models are good are bad, I doubt that I am saying much of anything different from you except maybe some of my matters end up getting framed differently from you in terms of my desire to assert that the models are still quite useful, even if they end up playing out wrongedly.

I am a man of the grey, of nuance, of complexity.  I think the models are interesting, and useful.  And all of them end up wrong because you cannot simplify the chaotic nature of this market into a terse formula.

I STILL do not think S2F is necessarily completely busted yet.  PROBABLY at this point... but. And I would love to see it come roaring back particularly with the overshoot needed to balance this deviation.

But I am not betting on that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

There are more and more indicators that Bitcoin is bottoming for this cycle. I’m starting to think the market might be on its way back up before the mtgox coins are distributed. I think it would be wise to be buying the dips here and hanging onto the coins you have.

Mtgox i'm hearing this news from the July still there is no any announced date yet but as you said indicators are bottoming so here i would like to say i'm standing with you after the month of September. for now September seems and opportunity to grab up some of decent amount. Point is How it comes out with October as a quite Bullish month in history and i can at least expect the come back to 30k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

The classic Dyson sphere with 100% efficiency would only be detectable by observing objects orbiting the star. Basically like a black hole. Inefficient sphere would radiate heat (infrared) and be detectable by JWST.

My thoughts too. Though there would surely be diminishing returns and you'd have some emissions at a very low frequency.

But a Dyson sphere can also be built as a ring or rings around a star. Let's say a strip with solar panels going around the star. This could be detectable because the ring could cause fluctuations in the light emitted by the star.

No one mentioning Larry Niven's Ringworld?

Only those with 100% efficiency would be undetectable in infrared, but 95% efficient would still be visible, apparently.
Dyson himself thought that it would radiate, but there is a lot of discussion back and forth.
See discussion of params here:
https://canmom.art/physics/dyson-spheres
and/or
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/
and
https://www.quora.com/If-a-star-were-fully-enclosed-in-a-Dyson-sphere-would-the-ambient-temperature-inside-increase-significantly-over-time
https://www.quora.com/Why-wouldnt-a-Dyson-sphere-eventually-just-melt-from-the-trapped-heat-of-the-star

Re ringworld-awesome sci-fi, not sure it could be detected with JWST, though...if it exists.
Generally, no systems are 100% efficient and heat radiation occurs.

It detected these concentric rings around a distant star, whatever they are.

https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-odd-ripples-image

The James Webb Space Telescope captured mysterious concentric rings around a distant star that astronomers are still working to explain.

The image, taken in July, was released on Twitter by citizen scientist Judy Schmidt, prompting a torrent of comments and head-scratching. It shows a star known as WR140 surrounded by regular ripple-like circles that gradually fade away. The circles, however, are not perfectly round, but have a somewhat square-like feel to them, prompting speculations about possible alien origins.

"I think it's just nature doing something that is simple, but when we look at it from only one viewpoint it seems impossible, at first, to understand that it is a natural phenomenon," Schmidt told Space.com in an email. "Why is it shaped the way it is? Why is it so regular?"

Mark McCaughrean, an interdisciplinary scientist in the James Webb Space Telescope Science Working Group and a science advisor to the European Space Agency, called the feature "bonkers" in a Twitter thread.

"The six-pointed blue structure is an artifact due to optical diffraction from the bright star WR140 in this #JWST MIRI image," he wrote. "But red curvy-yet-boxy stuff is real, a series of shells around WR140. Actually in space. Around a star."

He noted that WR140 is what astronomers call a Wolf-Rayet star, which have spat much of their hydrogen into space. These objects are also surrounded by dust, he added, which a companion star is sculpting into the strange shells.

Astronomers will know more soon thanks to a scientific paper currently under review about this mysterious phenomenon.

"Yes, those nested 'squircular' rings are real," Ryan Lau, an astronomer at NOIRLab and principal investigator of the project that acquired the observations, replied to the Twitter thread. "Our paper on this has been submitted so please stay tuned for the full story."

[Hueristic]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

Probably swamp gas.

[BobLawblaw]

Bob what are your thoughts on this?

#LNMETA

Didn't see the JJG question because fuck him, that's why.

My thoughts on this are "meh. I'll deal with it when I close the node eventually."

This goes back to my issue with the seeming "quantum state" of multisig stuff relating to Lightning that I am not clear on how it unwinds...

IOW, AFAIK, when I close everything down, I should get back all my liquidity, minus on-chain costs.

In theory.

I'm not going to be able to test that theory for a while as I'm committing to keeping this node up for as long as I have available liquidity on the node, without needing to add more.

Here's a current snapshot of my P&L display going back from when I started the node. It's only very recently that I became aggressive with fees.

[Morningstarr]

=178336.msg60873480#msg60873480 date=1662165194]
like I already said, it seems to me that you are all over the place and I question whether you are trying to trade your seemingly flip flopping ideas? or are you just dabbling for the mere sake of sharing information?

Right Because I don't have any specific information so I am straying from the point and mixing up things.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The classic Dyson sphere with 100% efficiency would only be detectable by observing objects orbiting the star. Basically like a black hole. Inefficient sphere would radiate heat (infrared) and be detectable by JWST.

My thoughts too. Though there would surely be diminishing returns and you'd have some emissions at a very low frequency.

But a Dyson sphere can also be built as a ring or rings around a star. Let's say a strip with solar panels going around the star. This could be detectable because the ring could cause fluctuations in the light emitted by the star.

No one mentioning Larry Niven's Ringworld?

Only those with 100% efficiency would be undetectable in infrared, but 95% efficient would still be visible, apparently.
Dyson himself thought that it would radiate, but there is a lot of discussion back and forth.
See discussion of params here:
https://canmom.art/physics/dyson-spheres
and/or
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/
and
https://www.quora.com/If-a-star-were-fully-enclosed-in-a-Dyson-sphere-would-the-ambient-temperature-inside-increase-significantly-over-time
https://www.quora.com/Why-wouldnt-a-Dyson-sphere-eventually-just-melt-from-the-trapped-heat-of-the-star

Re ringworld-awesome sci-fi, not sure it could be detected with JWST, though...if it exists.
Generally, no systems are 100% efficient and heat radiation occurs.

It detected these concentric rings around a distant star, whatever they are.

https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-odd-ripples-image

The James Webb Space Telescope captured mysterious concentric rings around a distant star that astronomers are still working to explain.

The image, taken in July, was released on Twitter by citizen scientist Judy Schmidt, prompting a torrent of comments and head-scratching. It shows a star known as WR140 surrounded by regular ripple-like circles that gradually fade away. The circles, however, are not perfectly round, but have a somewhat square-like feel to them, prompting speculations about possible alien origins.

"I think it's just nature doing something that is simple, but when we look at it from only one viewpoint it seems impossible, at first, to understand that it is a natural phenomenon," Schmidt told Space.com in an email. "Why is it shaped the way it is? Why is it so regular?"

Mark McCaughrean, an interdisciplinary scientist in the James Webb Space Telescope Science Working Group and a science advisor to the European Space Agency, called the feature "bonkers" in a Twitter thread.

"The six-pointed blue structure is an artifact due to optical diffraction from the bright star WR140 in this #JWST MIRI image," he wrote. "But red curvy-yet-boxy stuff is real, a series of shells around WR140. Actually in space. Around a star."

He noted that WR140 is what astronomers call a Wolf-Rayet star, which have spat much of their hydrogen into space. These objects are also surrounded by dust, he added, which a companion star is sculpting into the strange shells.

Astronomers will know more soon thanks to a scientific paper currently under review about this mysterious phenomenon.

"Yes, those nested 'squircular' rings are real," Ryan Lau, an astronomer at NOIRLab and principal investigator of the project that acquired the observations, replied to the Twitter thread. "Our paper on this has been submitted so please stay tuned for the full story."

To me, the 'squircular' form of these rings (and they are probably rings, not half-rings due to simply less bright second half (of the ring)) is the most puzzling part.
Looking forward to the explanation of a strange form.

[sirazimuth]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

Probably swamp gas.

No and no... obviously it was the extraterrestrial alien Charlotte the Spider, making herself a nice outer space (James) web home on the lens rim....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation