Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon! 

[Biodom]

IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-140K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.

EDIT: re ending the bear market..there are two schools of thought about it...one says that once the market is +20%, the bear market is over..another says that bear market continues until you are over prior ATH (I like this one more)...therefore, 30-40K would not be the bear market end, but an intermittent rally (just like in 2019 when we went to about 70% of prior ATH). I would welcome the rally to 68.9X0.7=48.23K anytime, though.

[serveria.com]

IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-130K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.

Halving suggests that the price should at least double so $69k x2  = ~$140k. That would be fair price for the miners and all but we know that Bitcoin doesn't give a damn... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-130K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.

Halving suggests that the price should at least double so $69k x2  = ~$140k. That would be fair price for the miners and all but we know that Bitcoin doesn't give a damn... 

why would it? it's a halving of reward, not doubling of the price. The bulk of btc is already issued and the breakeven for miners is about 15-16K (this one will be doubling, sure).

[AlcoHoDL]

Why FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried is Right

Watch until the end  N  Y  K  N  Y  C  

An interesting take, I agree. Especially the part where he says that CZ should similarly destroy Binance....calls is an act of effective altruism, lol.
I don't think people calling it fraud is defamation, though, since Mr. Ray (new CEO) already said that there were inappropriate actions.
At least one Dem senator (Durbin) said pretty much the same (albeit I disagree with his generalizations).
That guy doesn't know s-t about volatility. If he has concern about bitcoin volatility, how about META and NFLX, lol?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmwLkjQl-vY

One word about paying lawyers...I was a part of Enron unsecured creditors list (basically, stupidly bought a bit at a "bargain" $2-3).
The recovery there was pretty good-around 30-32%, so Mr. Ray achieved something.
Typically, stock holders receive something that is close to nothing and getting those funds at or close to the end of 2002-2003 recession allowed me to reinvest the proceeds close to the bottom.

[...]

Why FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried is Right

Watch until the end  N  Y  K  N  Y  C  

I can see that the guy is making some decent points.. but I have difficulties giving any benefit of the doubt to SBF (including that the presentation of SBF recognizing that SBF is talking out of both sides of his mouth.. and sure maybe SBF wants us to hate him.. the psychotic, flabby vegan and purported ethical altruist wannabe),

...and I also have some trouble with the Defi is fine talking point... , even though there is likely truth to the fact that SBF and even Alameda were paying back Defi loans while they were failing/refusing to pay back real world people and while they have so far been running off with the money..

and another thing that I have not been seeing too much is how various political donors are actually donating out their money rather than giving that money back to the (rightful owners) through the bankruptcy proceedings (for the creditors.. and the attorneys as was pointed out.. yeah attorneys make a lot and probably too much to sort through these kinds of quagmires of trying to get back money that can be gotten back, in theory.. or hopefully through the difficulties of the current system.. in which there are a lot of ways to criticize the current system.. but a siding with the criminal seems kind of strange.. even though yeah his attorney will need to do that at some point.. if the guy gets locked up or maybe he will choose to represent himself.. since SBF seems to think that he is so smart about presenting his issues (I mean lies) in the court of public opinion)... I know my last paragraph is rambling.. but fuck that guy SBF.. even though the video presentation does make some decent theoretical, factual and for the sake of argument points.

@Biodom, @JJG:

I was a bit reluctant to post the link to that video by TechLead, because of the inclusion of his DeFi/crypto business promotion. I think the video is more (probably only?) satirical than it is informative, although he does make some valid points in a general sense. I don't think this guy actually likes SBF. He's just making fun of him and at the same time stressing the all-importance of NYKNYC.

I believe SBF knew exactly what he was doing. For context, here are some of his private messages that were leaked to the press. Effective altruism...

[JayJuanGee]

Many many many @CryptoTea_

We gots our lil selfies (not royal) a CryptoTea_ fanboi going on here... .. and without any nohomo... too..  

Look at the cornfield
A Sunday in December
Making placid waves

#haiku

As far as I can determine, placid is better than flaccid, no?

[...]
@CryptoTea_
Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles:

Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months

And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025

Note: Historical data does not predict the future

https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497
[...]
I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this).

Yes.... "We" need a spiraling update from our very own WO spiral analyst #nohomo... within the next 2-4 years, no rush.  

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

That's not true.  It seems like almost always while we are "in the doldrums," it just feels like everything is going bad and bitcoin is dying.. that's how being "in the doldrums" is supposed to feel... otherwise weak hands, snot nosed 14-year olds and degenerate gamblers will not get shooken from their cornz.

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go to $100k, and there were also no guarantees that bitcoin would make it to $69k, but it did.

Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did

So what?

Shit happens.  There were no guarantees that bitcoin would go below 200-week moving average.... and there also are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to stay above $15,479, but so far it has.

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

Bitcoin might go up from here and screw the bears.  That's possible... and you are right it could go down to $9-$10k or even lower.  I would not rule out either one, even if neither one is guaranteed.

Furthermore, bitcoin has a pretty long history of screwing bears.. and it is quite satisfying when it does happen to have happen.. even though it is possible that the bears will never get screwed again, ever.. and even though historically it has seemed unlikely that the bears are going to get screwed right before it ends up happening, and sometimes we do not even realize how badly bears are getting screwed while such screwing of the bears is happening... I could give some examples.. but you know enough to be able to find your own examples if you weren't being such a party-pooping negative-nancy at the moment.  

Toughen up, soldier.  #nohomo.  

 

re ending the bear market..there are two schools of thought about it...one says that once the market is +20%, the bear market is over..another says that bear market continues until you are over prior ATH (I like this one more)...therefore, 30-40K would not be the bear market end, but an intermittent rally (just like in 2019 when we went to about 70% of prior ATH). I would welcome the rally to 68.9X0.7=48.23K anytime, though.

Those two scenarios for being considered as "being" out of a bear market seem too restrictive.  

You must try harder Boxer.    

 

[JimboToronto]

Twitter

Same old same old.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

England/France should be interesting.

December's World Cup
the football spirit flies high
bitcoin's on the mend

#haiku

[sirazimuth]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon! 

Well  since its early, I'll start with a tame one....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hyperjacked]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

[HI-TEC99]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon!  

Well  since its early, I'll start with a tame one....

[redacted]

Times are tough, (and a mod deleted them all).

[Gachapin]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

technically you are right, but I think November is close enough..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

[Gachapin]

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon! 

it seems they are forbidden in the WO this year.  A few months ago they got deleted by some thought police mod...

But I'm gonna post them again soon, nevertheless 

[HI-TEC99]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

mmh technically you are right, but I think November is still acceptably accurate..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

Maybe it was some of these.

[Gachapin]

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles

This years candle looks like such an obvious bear trap. We could spring back to 30k+ before the end of the year. Unless we end the year on a fat red candle, I am staying optimistic.

The longer we hold the line at 17k and trade sideways the more powerful the upside move going into the 2024 halving…of course I was wrong on the last halving and the most bullish according to the poll… who knew! 400K target for 2025… 😎 cheers hodlers

Disclaimer: Holdin my keys wit an iron grip

I'd say the last ATH was on the lower side of the expectations (...at least of mine, as 70k was my worst case scenario).  

So it could well be that the next run makes up for the weakness of the last one and gives us more uppity than the 3.5x from 20k (2017) to 70k (2021).  

400k is in the cards, but imo that level will not be sustainable, because of the mining costs being much much lower.  It could be sustainable, if we got some rare event like a big chunk of international trade happened via BTC, or if western central banks started buying - or why not both  .

[eXPHorizon]

Everything this guy touches turns to GOLD


Just like ME hahahah

[Gachapin]

BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope

mmh technically you are right, but I think November is still acceptably accurate..

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

...maybe because it got "tamed" by some assholes.  
Actually a 3x parabolic pre-halving run shouldn't be any problem for Bitcoin

Maybe it was some of these.

thanks for the laugh...

but nah..  shitcoins we had in 2017 as well and we still had a nice 17x from the last ATH