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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367622 times)
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December 16, 2022, 05:11:30 PM

Hello gang,
Observing 16,964@stamp.

I just wanted to post an analysis by @Plutosky, a fierce contributor to the Italian board, who is reluctant to post in English.
As I think he produces excellent content, I used a little force on him and translated one of his posts.
Do you think it is worthy material? If so, drop son love merit on him!

This graph is beautiful: it shows how the probability that a UTXO will be spent in the following X days from its creation (where X, according to the curve, is equal at 7,14,30,60,90 and 120 days) is a function (decreasing) of the age of the UTXO.



In other words, when some BTC is spent, there is a high probability that it will be quickly spent again. If they don't, the likelihood of them being spent drops quickly over time.

The very interesting thing is that regardless of the time interval considered and, therefore, of the curve represented on the graph, the lines all tend to "become horizontal" after about six months (vertical dashed line).

On average, after six months, the probability that bitcoins will be re-spent in the following X days (where X ranges from 7 to 120 days) stabilises and becomes almost constant.

We can therefore define the six months of UTXO immobilisation as the watershed that separates the Short Term Holders (i.e. speculators or those who use BTC for purchases, remittances and, in general, any type of "dynamic" use) from the real Long Term Holders).

The next step is to ask yourself: how do UTXOs that have been idle for at least 6 months change over time?

Here we go:



Beyond momentary declines associated with the phases of euphoria of the bullish markets, the amount of BTC has been hodled for at least 6 months, it always grows in the long run, especially during bear markets

The curious thing is that this greater general immobilisation of bitcoins is associated with the more frenetic activity of younger bitcoins. The UTXOs spent are close to their all-time highs:



this is mainly explained by the fact that the volume of BTC spent with less than 6 months of seniority is at very high levels from a bull market



For me, the conclusions that can be drawn from this set of information are the following:

1- The share of BTC that go from dynamic use (Hodl< 6 months) to outright hodl (last movement > 6 months). This growth is slow but constant, and increases in bear markets

2- The dynamic uses of BTC are increasing both as utxo spent (at the maximum despite the doom and gloom atmosphere) and as volumes spent.

3- the first two statements, which seem to contradict each other, can be explained by an increase in the dynamics of the most recently spent BTC.

In a nutshell, the separation between immobilised and dynamic BTCs is increasingly clear-cut: the former are increasingly "stationary" (and grow over time) the latter are increasingly "moved" (and decrease over time).

The two souls of BTC (SoV and MoE+speculation) seem alive and kicking, despite the period we are experiencing.  


this is a good post. gives me a lot to think about.

his analysis justifies my idea in this thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5427871.msg61436890#msg61436890


if only new coins recirculating like mad we could lose btc circulation by 2056

my idea of streching the time from 4 to 8 years would likely help continue that new coin circulation action

well past 2056
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December 16, 2022, 05:29:26 PM
Last edit: December 16, 2022, 05:43:59 PM by Gachapin

I fear the best we could get is a double bottom scenario by end of December or January...

If not next station might be 13k-14k .. which I hope can be avoided



However, I also recognize that I turned a bit pessimistic, which usually happens around bottoms or thereafter
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December 16, 2022, 05:48:50 PM

I fear the best we could get is a double bottom scenario by end of December or January...

If not next station might be 13k-14k .. which I hope can be avoided



However, I also recognize that I turned a bit pessimistic, which usually happens around bottoms or thereafter

yeah...Is it going to be more like 2018 or more like early 2015?
One thing, though...next ATH would probably be 10-11X of that bottom IF the pattern holds.
btw, stonks are now bent on forcing fed's hands earlier than expected.
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December 16, 2022, 06:01:21 PM


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December 16, 2022, 06:09:21 PM

I fear the best we could get is a double bottom scenario by end of December or January...

If not next station might be 13k-14k .. which I hope can be avoided



However, I also recognize that I turned a bit pessimistic, which usually happens around bottoms or thereafter

yeah...Is it going to be more like 2018 or more like early 2015?
One thing, though...next ATH would probably be 10-11X of that bottom IF the pattern holds.
btw, stonks are now bent on forcing fed's hands earlier than expected.

I'd say 2015. The bear back then was rather strong. I mean really long and exhausting. I feel this one might also be strong, maybe not by lengths but rather by downward movement... we went way lower (200wma & 2017 ATH) than most people expected. And maybe we still have some way to go. (fuck me, I hope not)

10x makes sense
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December 16, 2022, 06:12:51 PM

Waiting on Friday 1x DCA to hit.

With price drifting lower and almost at 16.5k I May do a 4x buy the dip
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You believe that your examples are the same?  You've got logical fallacy (or would it be called analogy-choosing deficiencies?) issues.  No?
No I don’t, I just don’t appreciate your uie pooie jumping onto any kind of SOMA prediction, and trying to make it look extra silly.
It’s silly by default, even if it turns out true.

Great.  We are making progress here.

I'm saying that you are no fun, and you are saying that I am no fun.

Why get so emotional?
Because I’m a Bitcoiner, and you called me a no coiner. Makes sense? No?

We are not going to actually know the status of any other member, and why does it even matter if I believe that you might be a low coiner or a no coiner or accuse you of such?  I might be wrong, I might be trolling or I might even be exaggerating such position in order to get an emotional response out of you.. or maybe I am negotiating?

Each of us is able to proceed to characterize the words and seeming actions of other members based on categories that we might believe such words and actions appear to fit...

What's wrong with that?  

For the record, I doubt that you are a complete no coiner, even when you have had your moments of being even a BIGGER jerk than anyone else... and trying to one-upsman jerkmanship....

And again level of low-coiner is a relative concept... in which any of us could be wrong in terms of making those kinds of accusations to make a point or for whatever reason that we might be wanting to make such accusations.  

From the perspective of this here cat, I still have difficulties knowing why it really matters... the label is a bit of a distraction... even if such labels might sometimes help other forum members to figure out from where a member is coming from in terms of how s/he frames issues and what observations are being made or which arguments are being presented.

Go ahead... Stay excited about low prices.. whatever.. that's up to you, and it is not like my mood is exactly locked in, anyhow (to the extent that I have moods).  Surely I sometimes will get excited about negative BTC prices because it weeds out certain kinds of degenerates.. and sometimes I wish for more crash in order to weed out some of the shitcoins too.. but sometimes it NOT healthy to focus on negative aspects, even if some of the purging of froth serves as a kind of unwanted necessity... or seemingly so..

Can you imagine if FTX would have been able to keep going with that level of bullshit fake money that they were slushing around?  So yeah there can be some glee but at the same time some sadness with some of the innocent folks that had been pulled into such messes.. and even from various angles that we would not have expected.. questioning the solvency of GBTC. etc..

I cannot really know for sure, but maybe if you have less than what you should have in BTC in accordance with your finances and psychology measurements that you have to make.  I tend to recommend an investment portfolio that is between 1% and 25% for newbies starting out, yet each person has to figure out his her proper balance.. so a low coiner would be someone who is being overly whimpy whether intentionally or accidentally.
My investment portfolio is 99% Bitcoin. [and a little of that other shitcoin I won’t mention]
I’ve also made efforts to sell some RE in the last couple of years, only to enhance my position on Bitcoin even further, and tip the scale between Bitcoin and my net worth.

I am not necessarily asking you to reveal anything.. but hey do whatever you want.  You know that we sometimes do talk about these kinds of allocation concepts because they can help us to figure out if we are in a right kind of balance on a personal level, and then surely other forum members can attempt to figure out their own balance and sometimes compare themselves to other member.. dos and don't dos..

Surely some practices of allocation seem better than others, and frequently we can talk about how we might be allocated prior to getting into bitcoin and then changing that allocation while we are accumulating a bitcoin position and reaching a target, and then maybe various ways to engage in BTC maintenance.

That seems a bit much to say that you are 99% bitcoin, unless you are just referring to your "crypto" holdings..., and within your crypto holdings you are 99% bitcoin..

Anyhow some folks have more variety in their overall investment portfolio, and we need not necessarily get into those kinds of details, even though I have made quite a few post on the topic and even described how my BTC allocations changed partially due to BTC price changes and then also there is some management attempts in there too.. and also some preferences NOT to sell too much of my BTC.. even though for sure, we have BTC valuations that have tended to experience a lot of volatility over the 9 years that I have been into bitcoin... overall to the upside, even though considerable periods of downside, too.

It's not always easy to know if one strategy is better than another, and if you were to compare yourself to what you did versus what you might have done better, then frequently, I like to use the DCA as a kind of measure to figure out if you might have been able to beat a DCA strategy with your chosen allocation approach.

I am not really sure about your circumstances, but if we go by your forum registration date (of November 4, 2018) as a kind of BTC entry point, then maybe we can consider a hypothetical person and his performance as compared to how your performance is doing.. and you are the one who should judge yourself and your particulars in terms of comparing yourself to such hypothetical person...

Let me extrapolate, and suggest that if you were to have had a total quasi-liquid investment portfolio of $100k in November 2018, and then there could have been a variety of ways that you could have entered into bitcoin, even assuming that you were aggressive (assertive) in your bitcoin approach instead of whimpy.  So maybe you could have done a fairly rapid allocation of 10% into bitcoin $10k-ish (let's say getting somewhere around 1.6 BTC) and then after that started to invest $50 per week which would have doubled your investment amount with about another $10,750 and the accumulation of another 0.9 BTC... so then the total number of BTC would have been about 2.5 based on around a $21k investment.

Of course, you are suggesting that you sold some of your BTC on the way up (50% ish) and then purportedly you are buying back or you have already mostly bought back.. Whatever, there are all kinds of ways that these matters could play out in terms of how long that you might spend accumulating BTC and then maybe if you had overallocated in the beginning, such as buying $20k worth of BTC rather than $10k, then you might have felt that you had an additional 1.6 BTC that you could have sold because you overallocated in the beginning of your investment.  There are ways to engage in these kinds of risk management and portfolio management that are more prudent and reasonable (and don't necessarily rise to the level of gambling), and there are ways to be degenerate about it..   You have the ability to make your choices based on your individual factors... and to learn from your mistakes (to the extent that you might have had any) and then to attempt to incorporate better practices (to the extent that you care about money - which you emotionally blurted that you do not.. hahahahaha.. go figure?  or don't.).

Stop enjoying it... whether pleasantly or otherwise.   Angry Angry Angry
Come on Jay, get a grip.
Bitcoin is going to do Bitcoin, regardless.

Sure.  Bitcoin gives no shits about whether you are enjoying these times or not.  I probably already said enough on the topic... which kind of revolves around taking advantage of the situation as much as possible.. but I still have troubles enjoying these kinds of times.. .. and I don't even regret that I did not sell very much on the way up... not really getting into too many details, but I did likely sell 2x to 3x the amount that I had initially invested.. but then used that money to buy back on the way down and mostly used it up by the time that we got down to $19k or so.... but the way that I do my systems, it is not really easy to trace exactly what is new money or what is just used up from previous sales on the way up.. even though I can see that quite a bit of my additional money is coming into bitcoin that I had considered was completely off of the table.. so I prefer NOT to be injecting new money into bitcoin, but there has already been quite a bit of new money coming in..  .. for me, it is not enjoyable, but I am not exactly in pain, either.. .. How is anyone going to complain when clearly and unambiguously being able to proclaim that s/he is at least in 16x profits (as I type this post)..

Wow.  That's a lot.  Selling that much might well 'splain some of your good mood, currently.
Actually dismissed 75% and 100% because … I love Bitcoin, AND I’m not that greedy.

Oh.  How sweet of you.  

Are you trying to suggest that you are on a higher plane than everyone else here?
No.
Have you realized that we are in a thread in which we are talking about bitcoin.. which is a form of money?.. sure it has other characteristics too, but bitcoin is the topic of this thread.
Sure, Bitcoin is sound money.
I only want what I think I need in my bubble though, nothing more, nothing less.

If you had not noticed, Bitcoin is so volatile that it might be worthy of having a cushion.. and also it might be worthy of having some ways to plan your finances in order to make sure that your plan is psychologically comfortable.  Isn't that part of the reason that you sold 50% of your BTC when the prices were higher?  Because presumptively you were trying to employ a strategy that you believed would be sufficiently balanced to your circumstances in which you would have to worry the least.  Whether it worked out somewhere in the ball park as planned might be another story.  So perhaps learning along the way is done in order to attempt to figure out whether to continue with the same kinds of plans and practices, or whether to make some tweaks to the plans in order to maximize comfort.  

Sure, maybe you can assert that whatever you did was perfect, and sure that might be true, and maybe in that whole process you were able to minimize the amount of time that you ended up thinking about "money matters," and good for uie pooie if you were able to achieve such objectives... and suppose part of my point would be that there are a lot of reasons why it is not easy to divorce your lil selfie from "money matters" including ongoingly trying to figure out how to even value and evaluate something like bitcoin - even if you might already have had reached fuck you status with it.. then if fuck you status had been valuated based on possible bottoms, including perhaps considering that the 200-week moving average was the bottom, now there may well be some needs to evaluate and valuate bitcoin holdings by using other standards, and I am not sure how any of us can completely remove our lil selfies from those kinds of considerations, especially if we choose to have decently high allocations into bitcoin... and even if we might have reached fuck you status and/or multiple levels of fuck you status, it might become easier when we might have larger cushions, but when the BTC price is moving so much, there can also be questions for guys/gals who previously concluded that their financial/psychological cushions were "large enough."

1) do you believe that it is beneficial or even desirable to delegate all things?
I believe humour is essential.

So, you won't be delegating your "wonderful" sense of humor, then?

2) have we established that this cat happens to be a higher coiner than any other cat, including you?
Don’t get cocky now, or I’ll have to bat slap you back into your senses.

Sounds like you are avoiding the question.  We have not established coiner levels, to the extent that it matters.

In theory, that would be great.
Errr, gosh, whatever!

We're making progress.. A stalemate.

For what am I choosing?  Are you trying to undermine OPsec of a peep?  Shame on uie-pooie.
Grip, grip it, get a grip.

Ok.  I will try, Mr. Emotional.

That's pretty specific.
Indeed it is, didn’t you just love it?

Not really.
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December 16, 2022, 07:39:56 PM
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Not touching my long bitcoin...but, sometimes you get a home-run and sometimes just a single/double...
Got a bunch of cap gains this year and took small losses to partially offset those gains. A bit more to take in a week or so.

A safe (in comparison to others) Treasury money market fund gives 4% divvy/interest, soon will be 5%-will have a bunch of cash coming in monthly next year-would allow a major DCA if I would go this route. Imho, money market is preferable to i-bonds philip touts because money there is liquid-I can switch out and into stocks or bitcoin within 24Hr (stocks) and maybe 48hr for bitcoin en masse, if conditions would warrant. Once we get to 5% short term rates, I might switch to maybe 2 year Treasuries because of a price appreciation possibility.

A. Hayes uses Treasuries...read his "PEMDAS" blog entry.
https://blog.bitmex.com/pemdas/
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December 16, 2022, 08:15:30 PM

I fear the best we could get is a double bottom scenario by end of December or January...

If not next station might be 13k-14k .. which I hope can be avoided



However, I also recognize that I turned a bit pessimistic, which usually happens around bottoms or thereafter

yeah...Is it going to be more like 2018 or more like early 2015?
One thing, though...next ATH would probably be 10-11X of that bottom IF the pattern holds.
btw, stonks are now bent on forcing fed's hands earlier than expected.

I'd say 2015. The bear back then was rather strong. I mean really long and exhausting. I feel this one might also be strong, maybe not by lengths but rather by downward movement... we went way lower (200wma & 2017 ATH) than most people expected. And maybe we still have some way to go. (fuck me, I hope not)

10x makes sense

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December 16, 2022, 08:33:35 PM
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Not touching my long bitcoin...but, sometimes you get a home-run and sometimes just a single/double...
Got a bunch of cap gains this year and took small losses to partially offset those gains. A bit more to take in a week or so.

A safe (in comparison to others) Treasury money market fund gives 4% divvy/interest, soon will be 5%-will have a bunch of cash coming in monthly next year-would allow a major DCA if I would go this route. Imho, money market is preferable to i-bonds philip touts because money there is liquid-I can switch out and into stocks or bitcoin within 24Hr (stocks) and maybe 48hr for bitcoin en masse, if conditions would warrant. Once we get to 5% short term rates, I might switch to maybe 2 year Treasuries because of a price appreciation possibility.

A. Hayes uses Treasuries...read his "PEMDAS" blog entry.
https://blog.bitmex.com/pemdas/

I-bonds need to be staggered for liquid purposes. Once you have a 12 month ladder in place they are in effect liquid.

I have some at 7.1 some at 9.6 some at 6.8

My Friday dca hit at 16.9 x corn is in.

7x buys so far.

I am clocking a 4x buy if we drop under 16.5

I am cashing all my doge this month.

I want to increase my btc and my btc miners hoping fed keeps us sideways til April or may.

With luck all old btc gear will be retired and stored by then.

Plus we will have 2x our mining of btc.
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December 16, 2022, 08:37:13 PM

Great.  We are making progress here.




For the record, I doubt that you are a complete no coiner, even when you have had your moments of being even a BIGGER jerk than anyone else... and trying to one-upsman jerkmanship....




That seems a bit much to say that you are 99% bitcoin, unless you are just referring to your "crypto" holdings..., and within your crypto holdings you are 99% bitcoin..




If you had not noticed, Bitcoin is so volatile that it might be worthy of having a cushion..




Sounds like you are avoiding the question.  We have not established coiner levels, to the extent that it matters.




Ok.  I will try, Mr. Emotional.




Not really.

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December 16, 2022, 08:50:15 PM

Great.  We are making progress here.

For the record, I doubt that you are a complete no coiner, even when you have had your moments of being even a BIGGER jerk than anyone else... and trying to one-upsman jerkmanship....

That seems a bit much to say that you are 99% bitcoin, unless you are just referring to your "crypto" holdings..., and within your crypto holdings you are 99% bitcoin..

If you had not noticed, Bitcoin is so volatile that it might be worthy of having a cushion..

Sounds like you are avoiding the question.  We have not established coiner levels, to the extent that it matters.

Ok.  I will try, Mr. Emotional.

Not really.


Cat's got your tongue?



Jojo?  Is that you?  Speaking 100% in pics.

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December 16, 2022, 09:03:21 PM

Cat's got your tongue?

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December 16, 2022, 09:08:51 PM

AT this particular moment, it is hard to argue with that kind of a scenario... .. but now that you wrote it down, it is NOT likely to happen..

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
You shouldn't have said anything.

I am considering that we might well be in a period that might be close to bottom for fiat-related bullshit.. .. so in essence fiat is largely sideways. and bitcoin does not necessarily do bad in "fiat sideways" kinds of scenarios... so "fiat sideways" bitcoin trickling up and trickling up.. and if bitcoin trickles up too much, then that becomes problematic for no coiners, low coiners and bitcoin naysayers.. because value ends up gravitating in bitcoin's direction.. so higher levels of desperation, attacks and battles against bitcoin could be part of the messy short term.. .. but the word is still getting out.. seems to me... trickle, trickle trickle.. starts to add up after a while.. no?
We can agree on this above.

Thus A new era for BTC could be its: a boring sideways asset linked to silver, gold and stocks.

Yeah, but we do not agree.. especially the way that you phrased the matter.

Merely if something (such as bitcoin) happens to go sideways and/or perform the same as the various other asset classes does not cause them to be correlated (or linked), even if they might have a short period of doing the same thing... and furthermore, there is nuance in terms of looking at why they might be performing similarly on a short term basis, but might not even capture any kind of essence of what is going on or even any kind of ability to predict what they might do, even if we might consider that the odds are good (or maybe the most likely scenario.. not even sure about that) that they all could possibly go sideways together and at the same time and even for several months.

Yet another toy for the wealthy to play with as they make their pile of wealth get bigger.

I agree with you on this part.  There are going to be ways in which bitcoin is manipulated and even tried to be manipulated, and some wealthy people will figure it out better than others, and at the same time, some not very wealthy people are likely going to prosper from bitcoin too.. just like a lot of normies have already profited from bitcoin as the largest wealth transfer in history continues to take place, whether some people recognize it or not.. and whether some people figure out how to allocate for themselves in profitable ways or not.  Wealth transfer is not going to come without any battles and without casualties... and some of those casualties will come from folks that we might not have expected.. .. surely some of the "rich folks" had gotten caught up in the FTX shenanigans (pension plans, right?), and likely in the future, some governments are going to get caught on the wrong side of some of the future battles, too.

Well, that's a shame.

what fellow bot?

I will bite.

What is the referred-to "shame"?


I don't believe that uie-pooie will be giving up so easily.

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes







Edit - PS.. by the way, who are these "beloving" peeps of whom you refer?  

Are they in the room with us now?
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