If I had a chunk of cash at the end of 2022 and wanted to eventually convert it in bitcoin, then I would have invested 1/3 right away (based on prior halving timing, yada, yada), and 2/3 later (within the next 10 mo).
If you don't have a "chunk" and instead invest a part of your cashflow, then, sure, DCA your heart out, but if you had that "chunk", then dcaing=mostly wasting your time.
What's wrong with bulk-buying btc with a >70% discount from the ATH instead of just tipping your toes in?
I haven't said anything about TRADING, well, maybe @dragogonlinux did, and it is for those with certain skills;
I am mostly focused on buying and less on selling.
Having three big "gulps" instead of just one allows for sudden macro situations a la March 2020.
This should work and I have a 'feeling' that some WO regs with extra fiat money are doing exactly this while being quiet until after they are satisfied with their new buying and content with their improved positions.
which is why in Nov 2022
I made 4x + 4x + 4x = 12x buy the dip
And I did a dca.
they hedge each other.
as it turns out the 12x buy the dip move has done better than the first 12 x dca I ended that dca at 12 x buys because it is a perfect match.
and it clear shows that buy the dip won out over that dca.
I am now doing another dca lets see if it can beat the 12x buy the dip I did.
Hint we need to drop to 15k very quickly for it to happen.
and basically these moves for me are for idle fun as they are no where near my gear purchases. which are over 200x fiat since sept 1.
in fact 522x in gear since sept 1
522X...I would dare to assume that it is four way split (or just "your" part)?...
That's one serious capital allocation..now btc would have to cooperate,
220x not me . the warehouse owner and his son.
302x me and buysolar
the buy the dips and dcas are all me.
so I am going
151x gear
12x first dca
12x buy the dip
4x second dca
I plan to do the second dca for six weeks total 12x
then decide what to do after it.
Of course, investing in a business adds additional dynamics that leverage bitcoin and likely even have some longer term implications that can lead to either direction, so like you mentioned your actual personal share is around 151x and there could be a lot of complications in terms of whether you are able to outperform or underperform BTC, and even if you might believe that I am dissing on mining, I have no problem with guys making those kinds of choices - even though the involvement of mining complicates the input variables and likely complicates the output variables - including figuring out various ways that they business is run in terms of potentially capitalizing on efficiencies or how well risk management might be employed - including that it is quite likely that others are involved in decision-making and even if you were to have complete dictatorial discretion, you still are somewhat forced to account for the interests and concerns of the others involved in the business.
You have way more discretion over your own DCA.. even though surely you have said that there might be some ways in which you might need to consider your wife.
I have one question about JayJuanGee, how you write so much ? Im thingking about you are a native speaker or i dont know beacuse its seems like you can spend a lot of time writing the post.
Imagine i felling tired only of read, so you are full of energy man. This its not a criticism its more like a congratulation.
Yes.. I type, and I hope to believe that some of my ideas related to bitcoin have evolved (or gotten better, hopefully?) over the past 9 years that I have been involved in bitcoin and a member of the forum.
Its seems of most of the people dont understand some things in the world. You never know when you are gonna need the money from an emergency.
So in that moment its when all your "masterplan" can fall.
Each of us has a responsibility to try to protect our own financial and mental situation, and to figure out bitcoin accumulation strategies that do not necessarily put us in a position in which we either get completely reckt or we are not advantaging ourselves from our investment choices.
So of course, it is best for each of us to attempt to figure how much we are able to invest into bitcoin based on our own individual financial and mental circumstances, so we could end up putting ourselves into a pretty bad situation if we do not sufficiently and adequately make sure that our cashflow covers our various expenses, and we should also attempt to make sure that we are prepared for potential extreme BTC price movements that could go in either direction. The longer that we are in bitcoin the longer that we should be able to prepare ourselves for great price moves in either direction, but even sometimes longer term bitcoiners end up getting reckt or significantly reduced in their bitcoin holdings due to mistakes (or choices that they make) along the way.
I am surely not even going to proclaim that I know the solutions for anyone else because sometimes forum members are going to make their choices in individually particularized ways, and sometimes people might not be exactly sure why they are balancing their choices the way that they are, yet spending some time to assess the various individual financial and psychological factors can be very helpful towards attempting to reach some kind of workable, sustainable and hopefully profitable balance that gives each of us more options (rather than fewer) because of our choice to get involved in bitcoin and to act in terms of BTC accumulation and figuring out target accumulations that likely change over time and with some changing individual circumstances, too.
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