($195,312.5 to $390,625) / 0.390625 BTC = $500,000 to $1,000,000 / BTC
I find these prices a bit conservative for 2036. I hope we get there by 2028. Whatever happens, it's still a win for HoDLers.
I would advise any Bitcoin newbie to set their target at reaching 1 whole BTC. They should attain f.u. status within the next 10 years.
I am not suggesting that I necessarily disagree with you, but wouldn't getting to fuck you status depend upon what is their "personal" "subjective" fuck you status?
I am not saying that truth is subjective, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of individual factors that go into determining "what is" fuck you status?
Unless you might be referring to a kind of default entry-level fuck you status for the west that might be something like $2million in today's dollars... .. and surely it seems that there are pretty decent odds that entry-level fuck you status could be achieved with 1 BTC in 10 years from now.. so in 2033.. ..
And, surely we know that there are some folks who are easily able to get to 1 BTC.. in these times or maybe even within the next 2-5 years; however, the next question would be to be able to hang onto at least 1 BTC in the subsequent 5-8 years in which some of these folks might get shaken from their BTC.
Currently many of us consider right around 80 BTC to be default entry-level fuck you status for todays current overall climate (BTC versus USD versus macro dynamics), and just think about how many guys could have accumulated somewhere in the ballpark of 80 BTC in the past 6-9 years?... so we could say that in the past 5-9 years, 80 BTC could have been fairly easily acquired and accumulated between $24k (at $300 per BTC) and/or $240k ($3k per BTC), and perhaps many folks potentially somewhere in the middle of right around $80k (which would be $1k per BTC), so then for sure, it would have had been better to have had been able to get accumulate up to 80 BTC or more for the lower end of that price spectrum of $300 per BTC or $24k BTC, but even paying a bit more than that might not be so bad based on the current value of 80 BTC.. and at the same time, part of the question might have been to be able to hang onto the BTC, for 5-9 years or longer and still be in a position to have those 80BTC, so sometimes it might not hurt to accumulate more BTC (something like 100 BTC at various points in time) but then still end up with 80 BTC in current times.
Similar with the desire to have 1 BTC or more in 2033 or later, then maybe it might be good to accumulate 1.2 BTC to 1.5 BTC to still be able to have at least 1 BTC by the time 2033-ish comes along.
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F.u. status is a relative term for sure. I took your entry-level f.u. status value of $2M as a reference, which I guess is a pretty comfortable amount of wealth for the average someone to be able to live without having to be a wage-slave, assuming one is in a wage-slave-type job -- there are exceptions, where a job can be quite pleasurable, in which case the corn f.u. amount can serve as a backup for when things at work turn sour. Then there's also the issue of medical insurance and other state benefits and societal issues relating to having a job vs. being unemployed. In any case, $2M can provide a sense of freedom and independence, to a greater or lesser extent, depending on country of residence, spending habits, addictions to LHB-type goods and services, etc.
Another important thing to consider is Bitcoin volatility and global events that can potentially add outliers to the overall "it's going up forever, Laura" trend. A local deviation of sufficient magnitude and duration, combined with lack of preparedness for DOWNities and absence of some fiat buffering (when in Rome, do as Romans do) could force one to liquidate more corn than originally planned, thus shortening the f.u. time horizon and weakening one's position in relation to self-sufficiency.
As things currently stand, entry-level f.u. status is attained at a value of 80 BTC (upper fish-level rank). This looks quite bleak for Bitcoin noobs and other low-ranking species such as shrimps and lower (< 1 BTC), but they should not fall into the "too expensive" trap. Crabs and octopuses (1-50 BTC) are in a better position, and should reach f.u. status within the next 5-10 years (conservative estimate). Aiming to own 1 whole BTC is a healthy and realistic target for noobs who are employed and relatively healthy financially. $24k is not a great amount and I urge all such noobs who have this kind of cash in a bank account to buy 1 BTC ASAP, put it in a wallet they control and forget about it (no trading!). In the next 10 years I see whole-coiners entering f.u. status too. Yes, this is Bitcoin, and no, this is not financial advice, but I wish I had that advice when I started in 2015...
tl;dr: Double-digit coiners are already in the rocket, they can either HoDL, or BTFD/DCA. Noobs should immediately start accumulating as much as possible, ideally reaching 1 BTC (or more, of course). Always have a backup plan and always be prepared for DOWNities. Buy when you can, sell when you must.
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