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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26401136 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 01, 2023, 06:12:54 AM
Merited by AverageGlabella (8), AlcoHoDL (1), YOSHIE (1), hisslyness (1)

@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

You really think so?


I deny that I am "awfully sensitive" about such topic, and I likely sufficiently stated my concerns in regards to our price location dynamics...

and by the way, we go by Stamp around here, which is $19,666... a minor point but not $19,798 and not $20k neither -  the last time I checked.  Tongue


BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?

First of all, it seems that you missed quite a bit of the essence of my point regarding how it flawed to begin your measurement from the Decemberr 2017 high..

But, o.k... I will play.. let's start from December 1, 2017 like you would like to do, then how are you measuring the average price of BTC between then and now?

I don't have an exact way to measure, but I am pretty sure that any DCA approach that is more than 3 years old would be in profits currently, and the DCAbtc.com website is not exactly accurate, but it shows that if I bought $100 per week from December 1, 2017 until present, I would have bout right around 2.4 BTC, and I would have spent $27k.. So at current BTC prices ($23,100), 2.4 BTC is $55,440.. so I would be about 2x in profits if I had followed a strict DCA for those 5 years and 2 months.. (62 months).

I don't even want to concede to your framework, but even your framework of trying to figure out the average price per BTC from December 2017 until present seems flawed in terms of your wanting to whine about something like not being profitable enough.. Is that your whining point?.


I think that it would be better to zoom out a bit further.. and let's go with your forum registration date, which is pretty damned close to the same as mine.. even though I proclaim that I started to buy bitcoin at the end of November 2013, but anyhow, you are a little over 9 years on your forum registration, so congratulations on that... so let's use 9 years.. just for nice round numbers (you like round numbers, right?.. hahahahaha)...

If we plug 9 years into the DCAbtc website and we stick with $100 per week, what do we have?  $47k invested and we have pretty damned close to 45 BTC. That would be $1,039,500. Is your investment approaching BTC beating those kinds of numbers, either substantively or percentage wise?

Are you going to knock those numbers, especially the longer term persistency and consistency that comes from a strict DCA approach?

Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).

Holy fucking shit!!  From where are you getting your numbers?  You just making them up?  Or you are looking at certain highpoints, and really just guessing about the rest?

Do I have to run through each of the variables on the DCAbtc.com website in order to show you that you begin to become profitable at three years or longer, and hey, even these particular times are not exactly the greatest but still I should not have to run through each of these numbers with you in order for you to be whining about facts that are not true.  It does not take 5 years to start to become profitable with a DCA approach in BTC.

O.k.  you are forcing my hand, I will do it for 3 years and also for 5 years too... even though it is a bit redundant.. but hey, I am nice like that, sometimes.. hahahahaha.. #nohomo

Here you go.  3 years.  $15,700 invested if we had invested $100 per week, and 0.7218 BTC accumulated, and so at today's prices of $23,100 only worth about $16,674.. ONLY slightly profitable.

Five years will be close to the earlier suggestion of 5 years and 2 months, but let's do it anyhow.  5 years.  $26,100 invested if we had invested $100 per week, and 2.3234 BTC accumulated, and so at today's prices of $23,100 only worth about $53,671.. still slightly greater than 2x profitable.

This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".

Is that what you are doing?  And how is that going?  Maybe you can describe when you did those big gulps between early 2014 and present?  how many BIG gulps did you do?  and how well did you perform in terms of timing them?

I am not 100% opposed to what you are saying because as you likely realize, I personally have not followed a strict DCA strategy because I had engaged in a front loading form of DCA, and also buying on dips and some lump sum investing like you mentioned, but still as a general starting out strategy, DCA is still amongst the best of strategies for a variety of reasons that I have argued over and over in terms of normies not having time to figure out if the BTC price is going up or down or to be able to determine in if the DIP is enough or whatever.  I personally have been able to monitor this somewhat in terms of employing my own strategy, but I still tend to error in terms of regular DCA, even though I also like to proclaim that I did most of mine for about the whole of the year in 2014.. but then I ended up kind of lingering in some variation of ongoing DCA for the next couple of years.. 2015 and 2016... .. which was some form of forced (or would it be compulsive DCA) during those two years?

Another thing is that normies do not necessarily have a lump sum that they are ready, willing and able to invest all at once, so even if they have enough money that they could end up lump sum investing, they tend to be reluctant to move assets around and to trigger potential tax consequences, so even those peeps who might want to aggressively want to establish a BTC will likely tend towards some variation of DCAing within a certain timeframe in order to reach their target position and then maybe continue to DCA for a while after having had reached their target level.  There will be some people who might be able to free up lump sums at various points in order to potentially be more aggressive in establishing their BTC target position, but I am not even sure if that justifies trying to figure out how to strategically figure out when dips are enough of a dip and that the dips might not go lower.. so in that regard, perhaps some variation of DCA will still end up kind of being the default position that is pretty fucking good without trying to anticipate or act like an BTC price sorcerer wannabe that ends up screwing it up..

Maybe you are smarter than average Biodom, so you did not screw any of yours up, right?  You got your 20 BTC.. and perhaps you got some more at one point or another since 2015, to the extent that you even were able to figure out that 2015 was a time to be aggressive, and I would hardly proclaim that 20 BTC would have been aggressive if the average cost per BTC was ONLY around $250 around then, so don't tell me you got your 20 BTC for $5k... and you timed the bottom, and you have been able to time a few more bottoms since then?  And you did not end up being overly whimpy because you were so busy trying to time the bottom when you could have invested $47k over the past 9 years and would have gotten about 45 BTC for that price... accumulating 45 BTC for $47k over 9 years does not seem bad at all, does it?  Sure there could be some other variations of that DCA approach to accumulating BTC, but have you beaten those kinds of numbers with your BTC accumulation strategies over 9 years?   

Yes or no?.. and if yes, please 'splain ur lil selfie. 

Do you think that average folks would have been able to beat that DCA strategy over 9 years? Yes or no? and if so, how could they do it? beyond just "having feelings" that there has been enough of a bottom.. blah blah blah .. bullshit.  We cannot know when there is enough of a bottom unless we are looking at this shit all the time, and even then.. what percent can figure it out?  less than 5% of the expert traders, if that.. we are talking about normies.  By definition, Normies are not expert traders.  That's why some variation of DCA works best.. for an overwhelmingly vast number of regular peeps.. especially once they figure out that bitcoin has upside possibilities that are decently good, relatively speaking.. which was true 9 years ago and same is true between 9 years ago and today.. the investment thesis of bitcoin is at least as strong as it was 9 years ago, and mabye even better than what it was 9 years ago, perhaps?

By the way.. are you just trolling me?  Do you really believe your nonsense is generally applicable to normies?  or are you just trying to appeal to a narrow audience of people who are insightful about where the BTC price is going because of "reasons?".. which likely you are merely appealing to the bitcoin price sorcerer actuals. .who are not wannabe sorcerers, but they actually know where the BTC price is going to go, which surely is a rare beast, even if you happen to be one.. .and want to presume everyone else can be just like you... Go on.. give some variation of your numbers. Have you beat DCA or not? Yeah, for personal privacy reasons, you do not have to give actual numbers, but give a kind of framework for what you have done over the past 9 years. that you believe is generally applicable and better than DCA and tell us at what points we should have deployed our lump sums (aka "BIG gulps") and how are we going to know that those price points are good and that we might not have been able to have been more aggressive if we would have DCA'd the whole time instead of investing.. $5k one time in 2015?  Hey if my budget is $47k, then that is a budget of about $5,222 per year (presuming that you kept steady DCA rather than regularly increasing it).. but anyhow when would you have deployed the $5,222 per year over the last 9 years between 2014 and now?  and how is that going to work to know in advance?  go on.
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February 01, 2023, 07:01:18 AM


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February 01, 2023, 07:30:29 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?
Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).
This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".

That's a terrible strategy for the average joe!!...Especially when most will shy away from assets that have fallen 60%-70%.

I got a friend, who is my most accurate indicator for the ATH cycle. Perfect 2 from 2 so far! 2017 bought 2 weeks out from the ATH. Tried to convince him to invest throughout 2018/19. Didn't speak about it again, because i sense he was angry at me for letting him buy at the peak of the market. Fast forward to October 2021, he asked me to help, i got him a significant amount (asked him why he didn't listen, price was going down, too scared etc etc), we all know how this played out! now we are back to square one! maybe negative square one (his wife told him not too....)!

Just re-enforces the fact that the average person will buy on the way up, or closer to the top and not down, let alone the bottom!

DCA with extra cash to #BTFD is the best strategy to accumulate Bitcoin!

EDIT: Some will get lucky, other will consult the stars, some may look at lines on a graph, but, most likely, you are never going to pick the top of the cycle or the bottom of the cycle!
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February 01, 2023, 07:51:04 AM




ahhahaha!.. Seriously, we can just devote a thread, just for all your memes! Someone a few hundred pages back, said your memes are on another level! 100% agree!
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February 01, 2023, 09:06:22 AM

"Uber is a bad idea." - Taxis

"Airbnb is a bad idea." - Hotels

"Computers are a bad idea." - Newspapers

"#Bitcoin    is a bad idea." - Banks

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1620554061560025088?t=fWr5FD0M_QUA56e9-pl3PA&s=19
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February 01, 2023, 10:34:01 AM
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February 01, 2023, 10:53:53 AM

JUST IN: 🇭🇰 Hong Kong working to become Asia's #Bitcoin    and crypto capital - Bloomberg 👀

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1620423558525771785?t=efn9iJ5TfeRsRMVpga6spw&s=19
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February 01, 2023, 11:33:49 AM

This AI / learning stuff is getting pretty interesting.

Voice resynthesis is getting unbelievably compelling. I fed it about 10 minutes of a Trump speech for learning.

Here is Trump reading some absolutely scatalogical 4chan copypasta.

*** ABSOLUTELY NOT SAFE FOR WORK ***

Triggers: Shit / Ass Eating

https://vocaroo.com/1hlHHz56W9HV
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February 01, 2023, 12:16:45 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

I am not going to confirm nor deny, unless you can tell me what more than 0.63 BTC means under these scenarios?

Very skeptical question but since you asked (I don't know what you mean by current scenario) but still answering to "what more than 0.63 BTC means" 0.63 BTC itself means a lot and stage 2. is guaranteed keeping the current scenario where the median bank account balance is $5,300 (according to google).


I am pretty sure that some of your number assignments for these folks is not correct (just like HI-TEC99 confirmed), but hey, I am not going to so directly make my assessments..

Well I know of course how would I guess someone's stage specially from an Avatar or a few posts here on WO... that assessment was just a satire...

and HI-TEC99 I gave him stage 3 but did not meant to be a day trader it was just mashup of his Avatar + his last post

Oh?  My opinion is different.  Even though we have guys and gal in the WO who are likely overall more informed about bitcoin than the regular person on the street and also more informed about bitcoin than the average forum user, for sure, we also have WO members who fit within every single category of person that is in the population, including those who are misinformed and including those who are continuously bordering upon having weak hands. 

Anyone of us could mindrust, but we might not admit it.. .I still am not sure why mindrust is so mad at us, and he did say that he would not be coming back to the WO thread... but still.. we are not as mean as he seems to be making us out to be (through his ongoing and seemingly intentional refusal to post in these here parts... pride can be a powerful thing... and I am not even proclaiming to be above such weaknesses).

I agree on this one... If I add something more I would say we can be on multiple stages at the same time... and there must be one mindrust stage keeping the bitcoin rise and fall in check. It's not bad to be honest and it's part of the learning curve and remember what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger!!!


That's Jimbo.  Can't you see him inside the avatar?  duh.    get off my lawn

hahaha or it could be philipma1957 minus the grumpy get off my lawn thing.


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