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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26384850 times)
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January 27, 2023, 04:02:39 AM
Last edit: January 27, 2023, 06:50:00 AM by Gachapin
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Interesting that you mention this.  Actually, I only registered to this forum to write my opinion on the fork, in 2017.
....guess who was the guy posting right after me.. you  Cheesy

Before that I was just reading the WO, for years.
But in 2017 the times were crazy, and for the first time I felt the urge to share my opinion fwiw.

Well that's a pretty decent first post, even though I might not have had completely agreed with your tone of "let the best fork win," "no BIG deal tone," even though ultimately it is not really incorrect... and there surely were BTC HODLers who were panicking way more then either you or me at the time... .. and some BTC HODLers were betting quite BIG on the other horse.. and some were just nervous... which surely, I am not going to proclaim that I was not nervous, even though I largely did not change too much in what I was doing in terms of my strategy to attempt to continue to prepare myself financially and psychologically for either price direction.

By the way, it can take a while for any of the somewhat potential histories of the various members to kind of form a picture in terms of what was their personal journey, which surely causes me to consider that I am going to have some better ideas regarding who's Island that I might want to request visiting, when my 0.21 BTC is able to buy me a yacht.. hahahaha..

And, by the way, my picture of you in my head is still kind of formulated by some of the seeming panicking that you had been doing from time to time, and even seeming bearish and pessimistic outlook that stuck in my head in regards to "why is that guy whining so much about the BTC price?.. it is what it is.. and why he does he keep 'overly assigning visions' of down that might or might not happen?"  I remember those kind of interactions with you... during some portions of the 2018 correction and maybe even during the corrections that were happening in late 2019, too... just caused me to consider that you might have weak hands, whether you were directly saying otherwise or not.


I just corrected my 1st post to avoid dreams of islands...
Not every early one became a Croesus. Just ask philipma1957 (if we can take his word for granted)

Why should I have panicked about forks?  They are an essential part of the functionality of BTC and a kind of democratic safety mechanism.
Yes, my 1st post comes off very laid back, because I think the community heavily lacked some ease back then, and I felt the need to share some of my relaxed view.

Regarding your "picture of me in your head" and "my" negativity in 2018 or 2019, you are surely confusing me with somebody else, because I wasn't active in the forum in the three years between 2017 and 2021 (apart from one single post about Karpeles)

The small negativity I might have in bear markets, is due to the fact that I'm weak to paper losses.  But I clearly don't have weak hands:  the last time I sold BTC was in 2015.  
After that I merely sold free forks and airdrops.
... I can only hope that dumb people pump forks and airdrops again like back in 2017/18...  nothing more yummy than free money  Grin




It's a common journey for a lot of newbies to get caught up in that kind of a reasoning.  I remember in early 2021, I was talking to this girl/young lady who had a decent job (not really paid the greatest, but what else is new?, she had some decent education and smarts about the world and seemed to be interested in the kinds of bitcoin-related things that I was talking about with her) in her mid-to-late 20s about bitcoin over several months and she seemed to be getting what is bitcoin and understanding the investment thesis and how bitcoin was different from other projects/coins, and then I had not seen her or talked with her for several months.. except maybe superficially sharing some texts.. but nothing too deeply involved or related to bitcoin... and then at some point, maybe something like mid 2021.. she was all of a sudden deeply down the path of Chia mining or something like that... I mean holy shit.. she just went off the deep end fairly quickly, and I kind of lost touch with her somewhere in that process in which she was not hearing/listening to anything that I said because she seemed to have had developed her own decently strong point of view that was not making a lot of sense to me and seemed like she might had gotten involved in somethings related to that.. I am not really sure.. I lost touch.. and sometimes, I cannot bring myself to reach out and check.. and she is not reaching out to me.. so it is hard to know how things play out sometimes with some people that we might meet or talk with within a certain kind of context.. .


maybe just contact her... from what I read she's much younger than you.  
And right after a bear markets carnage it seems to be an appropriate time to check and ask everyone if they are doing ok, no?




I am sure that I have influences over people too.. but surely there is variance in terms of what kind of influences, and sometimes where any of us might be in our lives in terms of our situation and if our audience might be able to relate their situation to our situation.  I have a lot of folks telling me how great I am in regards to bitcoin, and they should have listened to me at various points in history... and then I tell them, well get the fuck started now,  bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker now as compared to when we spoke earlier (several years ago or whatever), and so many people are just talk...in terms of saying "I should have listened to you," and there have been several times that I cannot even remember the conversation, so we spend a decent amount of time to pinpoint memories as to when I would have said the thing about bitcoin to them that they remember... so yeah, I had an influence upon them remembering that they should have listened to me, but whatever I had said did not cause them to act in the direction that I had suggested which largely has not changed over the years.. which largely can be summarized as: "get the fuck started, sooner rather than later."... of course, some nuances, but that's the general punchline.. also "The choice and the way you go about it is ultimately yours and don't come crying to me if you lose money...". hahahahahaha


Most people interested into Bitcoin I dealt with already had the feeling of needing BTC in one way or the other.  I think that helps big time.
Also when talking to peeps I learned not to tell them "you can (still) buy", or something similar.  It's seems to be very important not to give many hints or even ideas on what they should do with their money.  Such ideas have to come entirely from them.
Much on the contrary, it is sometimes even accelerates the conversion, if you try to talk them out of investing in BTC   Grin

 


Let's just face it.   The punchline is that either you are just more successful in converting peeps than this here cat, or you have different perspective of the world and the receptivities of the normies (including your supposed success rate) as compared to my perspective...

I am not suggesting that I am giving up merely because I hardly seem to have any success rate, and a bunch of folks diverge off into shitcoins or do dumb shit that is no where even close to what I had been suggesting that they do or how they approach lillie fiends... and ultimately I know that there are some folks in the real world who are more receptive than others in terms of sometimes they might already be inclined towards bitcoin when I meet them or find out about their interests in bitcoin, so I am not going to necessarily rule out the fact that some folks might end up tipping into bitcoin because of some interactions that they had with me in the real world.

That reminds me that I bumped into this guy in the street a couple of days ago, and I did not know him prior to that, but he surely was talkative.  He was probably in his late 60s and did not seem to be very rich or anything (so maybe a kind of early pensioner? or living off of social security? I did not ask).. and he was saying somethings that I did not completely agree with, but I was not finding him offensive or anything, and mostly I listened to a variety of his gripes, and I probably ended up talking with the guy for an hour or so.  The topic of bitcoin did not come up, and I was thinking that there could have been various places in our back and forth about living, family relations, politics, how expensive things were, government bureaucrats... blah blah blah..  that I might have mentioned bitcoin to him and then took the conversation in that direction to at least find out if he had ever heard of bitcoin and how it relates (or fixes) some of his concerns... but then I did not raise the topic.. and so in that sense, I was not influential in the bitcoin sense.. except for the fact that the guy started asking me a whole lot of somewhat personal questions, which caused me to believe that he liked me and he was being influenced by the way that I was responding to some of his ways of presenting topics... Towards the end of our conversation when I said I better get going because the sun is going down, he even asked me what kind of car he should buy (as a replacement to his current car).. hahahahaha?.. so we had a bit of back and forth about that topic, as a kind of bonus conversation topper part of our seemingly influential-potential discussion.


Maybe you are just not so vocal about you owning BTC  ....which is not the worst idea security-wise, depending on where you live and who is around you.
I only talk to people I feel secure around to talk to.  Principally I don't interact much with people with whom I sense the need for being cautious, as that's very exhausting energy-wise.
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January 27, 2023, 04:16:08 AM

...

* psycodad ... celebrating the great advance we make in fighting climate change...


Don't forget to recycle your piss.






that reminded me of this awful classic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUtc4vcPfMk
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January 27, 2023, 04:23:07 AM
Last edit: January 27, 2023, 04:44:06 AM by Gachapin

Morning WOers!

Speaking of nocoiner --> coiner conversions, y'day I was having dinner with an old friend (nocoiner). He asked me about the B-word and I jumped at the opportunity to educate him. I knew I had a chance when we got past the "too expensive" barrier. I think a new coiner is in the making--probably for the wrong reasons (i.e., trusting me, instead of understanding the beast), but he said he will work on that (ordered one of Antonopoulos' books right there in front of me). He is tech-literate, so he can do code and algorithms and stuff.

Guys and gals. We are all blessed. There's no need for toxicity and bitterness in WO. Enjoy you corn, do your DCA/BTFD, have fun, have lots of sex, spread the love (but always be OPSEC-aware).

Back to the Matrix...


nothing to blame though.. it can, and often will, take years to understand the "beast" ... not everyone is a M. Saylor
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that reminded me of this awful classic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUtc4vcPfMk

Priceless! Lol
That dude looked about as dumb as a bag of hammers,
but he gave me my therapeutic chuckle for the day, so there is that.
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[edited out]
I just corrected my 1st post to avoid dreams of islands...
Not every early one became a Croesus. Just ask philipma1957 (if we can take his word for granted)

It's pretty rare that I read my old posts, unless for some reason I stumble across it or someone points out specifically to me or maybe there is some specific kind of reason that something that I might have said seems relevant.. which not too often and perhaps part of the reason that I created a reference thread for some of my core ideas related to investment that might come up from time to time and I can just easily reference at this thread. 

I haven't been inspired to edit any of my posts - except usually within about an hour of their being drafted or occasionally, I will go back within less than 24 hours to fix it up - especially if I read it and then I am finding some confusion with the points that I am trying to make... so yeah, maybe there could be some reason that someone points out that might inspire me to edit a post or two .. and we know some things might seem kind of amorphous or vague but then if we go back it does not seem as amorphous or vague as we might have preferred (upon reflection).

Why should I have panicked about forks?  They are an essential part of the functionality of BTC and a kind of democratic safety mechanism.
Yes, my 1st post comes off very laid back, because I think the community heavily lacked some ease back then, and I felt the need to share some of my relaxed view.

Sometimes if we witness a kind of reaction, we might naturally consider that the reactions are overreacting or that the people are getting too worked up about something that they cannot change anyhow... so I can relate to that kind of a response.... and sometimes members will go through a public meltdown, so for whatever reason, we might end up reacting to their public meltdown in a way in which we might want to contrast our own "non-meltdown" status.

Regarding your "picture of me in your head" and "my" negativity in 2018 or 2019, you are surely confusing me with somebody else, because I wasn't active in the forum in the three years between 2017 and 2021 (apart from one single post about Karpeles)

Sure, it could be that I am mixing you up in my head.. perhaps?  I am too lazy to look back for potential proof (or clarification attempts), if any exists.

The small negativity I might have in bear markets, is due to the fact that I'm weak to paper losses.  But I clearly don't have weak hands:

I personally don't relate negativity with selling, but just having negative views of the market and the BTC price direction.. so if I conclude that you are overreacting or assigning too high of a value to downity, then I might jump on your case, even though you might end up being correct in the longer run, but I am not going to necessarily admit that I was wrong to jump on your case... it depends on if you might have just been generally negative or if you had been presenting yourself as a BTC price sorcerer, so I cannot recall you going down that sorcerer route.. and there surely are some members  who take it personally when you accuse them of trying to present themselves as a bitcoin price sorcerer wannabe... .. but surely, any of us can slip into that kind of language and that kind of thinking that we know what is going to happen, whether we can back it up or not beyond merely having "a gut feeling."

the last time I sold BTC was in 2015.  

Yeah, you likely deal with your finances and psychology different from me..... and I am likely closer to a Jimbo status in that regard, but surely not exactly the same as him either.. but not really opposed to selling at least some BTC on right around at least an annual basis.. I am not sure if there might not be any years in the future in which I don't sell some... even in 2022. .I had some sales, even though you might think that I would not have had since the BTC price started out at $50k-ish, and then just went down hill the whole damned year... but still there was some in there. and I still have to figure out my details in terms of how 2022 played out for my 0.63 BTC stash.. or whatever it is at in regards to our great largely negative price performance year of 2022.

After that I merely sold free forks and airdrops.
... I can only hope that dumb people pump forks and airdrops again like back in 2017/18...  nothing more yummy than free money  Grin

Gosh?  Did we have enough of that?  You never know.  It seems that in 2017/18 every mother and her brother were forking or planning to fork bitcoin, and some of them did not play out very well..

It's a common journey for a lot of newbies to get caught up in that kind of a reasoning.  I remember in early 2021, I was talking to this girl/young lady who had a decent job (not really paid the greatest, but what else is new?, she had some decent education and smarts about the world and seemed to be interested in the kinds of bitcoin-related things that I was talking about with her) in her mid-to-late 20s about bitcoin over several months and she seemed to be getting what is bitcoin and understanding the investment thesis and how bitcoin was different from other projects/coins, and then I had not seen her or talked with her for several months.. except maybe superficially sharing some texts.. but nothing too deeply involved or related to bitcoin... and then at some point, maybe something like mid 2021.. she was all of a sudden deeply down the path of Chia mining or something like that... I mean holy shit.. she just went off the deep end fairly quickly, and I kind of lost touch with her somewhere in that process in which she was not hearing/listening to anything that I said because she seemed to have had developed her own decently strong point of view that was not making a lot of sense to me and seemed like she might had gotten involved in somethings related to that.. I am not really sure.. I lost touch.. and sometimes, I cannot bring myself to reach out and check.. and she is not reaching out to me.. so it is hard to know how things play out sometimes with some people that we might meet or talk with within a certain kind of context.. .
maybe just contact her... from what I read she's much younger than you.  
And right after a bear markets carnage it seems to be an appropriate time to check and ask everyone if they are doing ok, no?

Don't you have people in your life in which you kind of have a going your own separate ways, and there is not really any hostility or anything like that, and you would not even be hostile if they contacted you or if you bumped into them at some kind of a gathering or in a bar or wherever, but you are not going to make the first move.  That's how I feel about this particular one.. at the moment.  There are several people I feel like that about... even though some of the falling out of contact has been longer in some cases than in others, but nonetheless, merely because you know how to contact the person does not necessarily mean that you want to... and even if there had been BTC discussions involved does not really change the motivation or tip the balance towards getting in contact.

I am sure that I have influences over people too.. but surely there is variance in terms of what kind of influences, and sometimes where any of us might be in our lives in terms of our situation and if our audience might be able to relate their situation to our situation.  I have a lot of folks telling me how great I am in regards to bitcoin, and they should have listened to me at various points in history... and then I tell them, well get the fuck started now,  bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker now as compared to when we spoke earlier (several years ago or whatever), and so many people are just talk...in terms of saying "I should have listened to you," and there have been several times that I cannot even remember the conversation, so we spend a decent amount of time to pinpoint memories as to when I would have said the thing about bitcoin to them that they remember... so yeah, I had an influence upon them remembering that they should have listened to me, but whatever I had said did not cause them to act in the direction that I had suggested which largely has not changed over the years.. which largely can be summarized as: "get the fuck started, sooner rather than later."... of course, some nuances, but that's the general punchline.. also "The choice and the way you go about it is ultimately yours and don't come crying to me if you lose money...". hahahahahaha
Most people interested into Bitcoin I dealt with already had the feeling of needing BTC in one way or the other.  I think that helps big time.
Also when talking to peeps I learned not to tell them "you can (still) buy", or something similar.  It's seems to be very important not to give many hints or even ideas on what they should do with their money.  Such ideas have to come entirely from them.
Much on the contrary, it is sometimes even accelerates the conversion, if you try to talk them out of investing in BTC   Grin

Yeah.. I am not really sure if generally, there is anything that I want to say differently than I already tend to do.  Of course, any of us can learn from any conversation that if we say something weird or awkward, we might realize that we might want to present the information differently. 

For example, I remember in 2017 talking with someone closely related about a dead relative about a somewhat negative memory that I had within a certain context, and then after I ended up sharing a negative memory that I had, I realized that I had overly-shared such negative memory, and I probably should not have said that..or maybe I could have made my point in a less negative way.. but after I said it, it was too late to take back, so I regretted saying it.. and every once in a while I think about that thing that I said.. and sometimes there could be ways to rectify.. but it was not a one on one conversation, and there were likely three other people involved in the conversation, and it is not even very usually that I would talk to all three of them at once, and even each of the three might or might not have remembered what I had said or how I had said it, even though I still regret it more than 5 years later.. that is if I think about it.. but usually I don't.. but ever once in a while if for some reason I think about that dead relative or any of the close survivors, I think about my bad way of saying something that I could have probably said better..

Let's just face it.   The punchline is that either you are just more successful in converting peeps than this here cat, or you have different perspective of the world and the receptivities of the normies (including your supposed success rate) as compared to my perspective...

I am not suggesting that I am giving up merely because I hardly seem to have any success rate, and a bunch of folks diverge off into shitcoins or do dumb shit that is no where even close to what I had been suggesting that they do or how they approach lillie fiends... and ultimately I know that there are some folks in the real world who are more receptive than others in terms of sometimes they might already be inclined towards bitcoin when I meet them or find out about their interests in bitcoin, so I am not going to necessarily rule out the fact that some folks might end up tipping into bitcoin because of some interactions that they had with me in the real world.

That reminds me that I bumped into this guy in the street a couple of days ago, and I did not know him prior to that, but he surely was talkative.  He was probably in his late 60s and did not seem to be very rich or anything (so maybe a kind of early pensioner? or living off of social security? I did not ask).. and he was saying somethings that I did not completely agree with, but I was not finding him offensive or anything, and mostly I listened to a variety of his gripes, and I probably ended up talking with the guy for an hour or so.  The topic of bitcoin did not come up, and I was thinking that there could have been various places in our back and forth about living, family relations, politics, how expensive things were, government bureaucrats... blah blah blah..  that I might have mentioned bitcoin to him and then took the conversation in that direction to at least find out if he had ever heard of bitcoin and how it relates (or fixes) some of his concerns... but then I did not raise the topic.. and so in that sense, I was not influential in the bitcoin sense.. except for the fact that the guy started asking me a whole lot of somewhat personal questions, which caused me to believe that he liked me and he was being influenced by the way that I was responding to some of his ways of presenting topics... Towards the end of our conversation when I said I better get going because the sun is going down, he even asked me what kind of car he should buy (as a replacement to his current car).. hahahahaha?.. so we had a bit of back and forth about that topic, as a kind of bonus conversation topper part of our seemingly influential-potential discussion.
Maybe you are just not so vocal about you owning BTC  ....which is not the worst idea security-wise, depending on where you live and who is around you.
I only talk to people I feel secure around to talk to.  Principally I don't interact much with people with whom I sense the need for being cautious, as that's very exhausting energy-wise.

Who knows?  We might not be that different in our ways of presenting, even though surely, there are going to be differences in personalities, and it is not like we are necessarily going to want to change what we are doing... and sure we might still have differing perceptions of our success rates, which surely might be actually reflected in numbers of people and quantities of BTC that we happen to know that they own.. or however we might be measuring "success." 

that reminded me of this awful classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUtc4vcPfMk

That's how I feel when attempting to figure out (measure) my BTC conversion success rate... like the guy being filmed..

that reminded me of this awful classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUtc4vcPfMk

Priceless! Lol
That dude looked about as dumb as a bag of hammers,
but he gave me my therapeutic chuckle for the day, so there is that.

Of course, you would appreciate it.....  Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry
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January 27, 2023, 08:50:22 AM
Last edit: January 27, 2023, 09:28:32 AM by sirazimuth
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....
It's pretty rare that I read my old posts,.....
.....


Its pretty rare I read your old posts too bro. Come to think of it, its pretty rare I read your new posts too.
Ok I kid... I usually plow through the first 500 words or so and then lil old me gets distracted with other thingenings on the intertoobz.
It’s 2023 after all, phone swipenings, 30 second attention span etc..... You know how it is.... perhaps, perhaps?


........
that reminded me of this awful classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUtc4vcPfMk

Priceless! Lol
That dude looked about as dumb as a bag of hammers,
but he gave me my therapeutic chuckle for the day, so there is that.

Of course, you would appreciate it.....  Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry

Of course I would indeed. You know me well brother.
Now excuse me while I go watch a fart video.

GO BITCOIN

   

...and what's the deal with all those Grumpy Pants emojis anyway?






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January 27, 2023, 10:13:45 AM

In my youtube recommendations this morning. I have no idea why, but I am not complaining...
Makes a change from the Saylor / Microstrategy livestream "Double your BTC" scammers.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nab1f-D7818&ab_channel=BMEVISUALS

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January 27, 2023, 01:13:43 PM

Happy birthday Mr. philipma1957!  Hope it's a good one Smiley
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