EOL, buddy
I could throw you a bone, Biodom - even though we may well be making similar points in regards towards difficult aspects of the short term success of any BTC accumulation theory, and so in that regard, it seems that both the DCA'ers and the lump summers could have well gotten themselves into pickles in terms of their BTC accumulation strategies over the past two to three years.
Surely, there would not been as many problems for guys/gals who had done most of their BTC accumulation prior to September 2020.. and maybe they could have even gotten away with a certain amount of success to have had done the vast majority of their accumulation prior to January 2021.. even though we had already reached new ATH (supra $20k the first time around in December 2020).
A lump summer would have been advantaged to buy prior to January 2021, but could have felt fucked to have had bought after that time... at least until we get back into June 2022 or so, then lump summers might have felt good, but still way too little time to allow for the whole matter to play out.. since we still seem to be in our current price doldrums - presuming that at some point we will get out of such current price doldrums (and get back above the 100-week moving average would be a good feeling... although the 100-week moving average is currently dropping - at a somewhat slow pace, so will we get back above the 100-week moving average, or will it come down to meet us? .. hahahaha
$36,726 currently as I type this post).
Of course, one of the disadvantages of DCA over the past couple of years (even going back to September 2020-ish) would have been that on average the BTC price would have (overall) been higher than it is now.. so a DCA'er would have been disadvantaged by that and even caught into a kind of dilemma regarding whether to get in to BTC, even though the BTC price was going up for that whole time.. so a DCA'er might have had felt that s/he did not have much of a choice, especially if they do not even have a lump sum that is available to them, unless they did do something like Saylor and borrow in September 2020 in order to frontload their BTC and also frontload the fact that they did not have cash while anticipating that they did have a cashflow.
Part of Saylor's own strategic blunder in which he got into bitcoin in July 2020 personally and in August 2020 for his company is that his first investments into bitcoin were sufficiently aggressive (around the $10k price range) with quite high portions of his own and his company's personal treasury (something like 75% or more), but then he did not really start getting into the leveraging up of BTC purchases until the BTC price was way higher which caused his average price per BTC to shoot up into the $30k territory, even though he started out with a decently low average cost per BTC and many folks would have had considered that he had already bought enough BTC when he had already bought 75%-ish of is personal/company treasury into BTC, so why buy more, but instead Saylor had to "one-up" in terms of his financial creativity to use various forms of fairly creative leveraging opportunities to cause his BTC stash to go up by more than 4x the original amounts bought, but buying those BTC at quite higher prices too... but still he is likely going to be fine because the vast majority (if not all) of his various financial instruments were structured in such a way that they were quite well serviceable with existing cashflow and even out into a time line of due dates that were quite far out into the future (5 years or more) for when he entered into the various relations, and some of those "creative" financial instruments were not even borrowing, but instead disclosing that company shares would be used as collateral to buy BTC - meaning that that money does not need to be paid back, but would have the potential of diluting company shares (or at least leverage company shares into bitcoin more than the whole company had already been leveraged into bitcoin).
My point is that there are various ways to play these getting into bitcoin strategies, and even if I might be throwing you a wee little bit of a bone, I am not going to concede that lump summing is anything to necessarily do lightly, and as you likely may be realizing
(if anything might be able to be sunk into your thick skull?) is that I have never suggested that DCA is the ONLY strategy, but I stick to my guns to suggest that it is way more the more basic entry-level strategy, even though likely many normies are tempted to lump sum, just like many normies are tempted to gamble and just like many normies have difficulties thinking in terms of increments so normies tend to have natural inclinations to think in terms of all or nothing, and lump summing plays into their tendencies, even though it is likely NOT the better starting approach, even if there may well be times in which lump summing could work better to replace or to supplement DCA.. and sure, maybe I would be hesitant to suggest that lump summing should ever completely replace DCA.. but there are scenarios in which any of us might get into an asset.. even BTC in such a way that we are front-loaded into it (a kind of lump summing) that would then justify the potential that DCAing would not be justified or necessary since we had already bought a lot and if the price ended up going up from our
(lump-summing) buying point(s).
Edit: By the way, the more I think about it, the more I consider that my own approach into bitcoin has quite a bit of lump summing elements in it, and even though I claim myself to be a DCA advocate, my own self-descriptions of what I did during my main (first) year of getting into bitcoin in 2014 was a kind of front-loading of my investment into BTC, but I did it in a DCA'ing kind of a way while attempting to reserve cash throughout the whole first year because I was not so dumb as to not be able to see that the charts showed that BTC prices had gone up 100x in 2013, so I bought initially to have some stake, and reserved money but continued to buy through the whole year. Sure maybe you would suggest that I should have known better blah blah blah ( I heard it the whole fucking year in 2014.. everyone saying you should have known and you should have waited and blah blah blah.. but I continued to buy.. the BTC price went lower.. buy more.. and went lower buy more).. and waited the whole year so that I could have had pulled the trigger at any time in 2015 and would have had been better off.. but how the fuck is anyone really going to know with confidence?. maybe that was part of the reason that I continued to buy in 2015 and 2016, even though by the end of 2014, I had pretty high levels of confidence that I already had enough BTC. .but I kept buying with cashflow.. so 2015 and 2016 ended up playing out as a kind of ongoing DCA.. even though 2014 was a kind of DCA with frontloading intentions.. which was DCAing and lump summing.. and for myself, I really never felt any need to lump sum anymore after 2014.. because like I said, I already felt that I had enough... .. so there does seem to be some balancing of which approach might be more suitable based on how much BTC that you already have.. and the more you have, you may end up just strategically holding back, too.
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