Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[_Hiloveua_]

Happy Valentine's Day



Beware!!!

Be careful sisters this Valentine's Day is the result of getting extra love.

still a beautiful day for WO on 14th February

Keep

your

mind

clear
....

will be so.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

We likely realize that if there are various CBDCs, in the beginning they might not have very many restrictions on them to make them seem cool and enticing; however, even normies don't seem to be that dumb.. even though sure, some of the folks are going to consider that CBDCs are part of the modern payment system, and surely there would be some ways to attempt to make them attractive, even though they have been saying some dumb things too in regards to the various ways that the CBDCs would be controllable.

So then some questions might be how are we already holding our value and do we have options, because if we already have BTC, then we likely will have more options, even though maybe we are going to be able to buy BTC with our CBDCs, but it is not guaranteed..

Maybe we presume that OLDer folks have already established their investment portfolio, and that might be part of the explanation why they are less flexible, but younger people are still building their investment portfolio and hoping to get to fuck you status at some time prior to their keeling over from old age.

So maybe instead of getting into details, we might presume that younger people can generate cashflow through labor, but then question how much that they are able to put into bitcoin ($100 per week?  Some other amount?)  and whether CBDCs are restricting their abilities to get into bitcoin versus "acceptable" investments.  Yes, it likely helps if you accumulate BTC prior to CBDCs coming, but it still seems that CBDCs are quite a ways off in the west - even though there are actual ongoing experiments with them.. and it seems that in Nigeria there are some current battles in regards to the current implementation efforts, so learning can go on from both ends.. from the ones who are trying to implement CBDCs and from the ones trying to figure out ways to resist CBDCs, or at least hedge against them by having some other options, such as bitcoin and perhaps some other hard asset options that might work... to the extent that we can figure out how to hold our value and how to retain aspects of our sovereignty to the extent to which our sovereignty is ongoingly threatened with various restrictions in our abilities to transfer value and/or communicate with one another.

I recently had to open a new bank account on a different bank, just to be able to send fiat to an exchange, because my old bank has blocked all wire transfers to most exchanges!

You can bet CBDCs will be fully controllable by banks, and payments deemed "questionable" (by whom?) could and surely would be blocked. In fact, I don't think CBDCs could ever be classified as 'cash', in the sense of being able to use them to pay someone without any intermediary and without having to disclose personal details of the parties involved.

They know who we are.
They know where we are.
They know who we talk to.
They know what we talk about.
They can hear and even see us.
CBDCs are just another tool in their monitoring machine.

No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BountyProgram]

Well Observer

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Still eyeing up a move to around $21K. Wouldn't be surprised to see back test of $22.8K local resistance before it plays out later in the week. This could then lead to a close back above $23K for a strong weekly close with bullish wick. With short-term death cross on 4hr, looks like a good opportunity to liquidate some more bears followed by trapping some bulls, then repeating the opposite at lower levels.



Either that or market is ready to break $25K in very near future. Reclaiming $23K levels would likely invalidate the $21K target, which would be an uber bullish scenario imo. Previous local volume support range is between $20.7K and $21.4K, meaning price re-tested only $34 into support before rebounding to the upside for continuation if it occurs. Just my two satoshis on short-term price action.

[Gachapin]

Still eyeing up a move to around $21K. Wouldn't be surprised to see back test of $22.8K local resistance before it plays out later in the week. This could then lead to a close back above $23K for a strong weekly close with bullish wick. With short-term death cross on 4hr, looks like a good opportunity to liquidate some more bears followed by trapping some bulls, then repeating the opposite at lower levels.



Either that or market is ready to break $25K in very near future. Reclaiming $23K levels would likely invalidate the $21K target, which would be an uber bullish scenario imo. Previous local volume support range is between $20.7K and $21.4K, meaning price re-tested only $34 into support before rebounding to the upside for continuation if it occurs. Just my two satoshis on short-term price action.

Thanks.
Every satoshi counts. But your two are especially welcome  

[HI-TEC99]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/naiivememe/status/1625448269202731009?s=46&t=pqRZfW2lkGlz5ZOIRmuwPQ

 

[OgNasty]

The market feels a lot like the correction we saw might be over already. Another sign that the market is much stronger than it appears. Those who were waiting for new lows to get in have missed the boat and it looks like the big buyers aren’t slowing down at all. I think $30K in the next sixty days is a definite possibility and in my opinion more likely than falling to $15K.

[BitcoinBunny]

Well Observer

[Gachapin]

well put


https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1625236690951368707

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/14/fca-and-west-yorkshire-police-raid-crypto-operators-in-uk-first



"While the FCA does not regulate cryptoassets, it does require all firms dealing in crypto to register and prove they have effective anti-money laundering and terrorist financing controls.

There are no crypto ATMs registered with the FCA, meaning any crypto ATM operating in the UK is doing so illegally."




The war on freedom

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I have never really liked the 2x per year claims because it just does not seem accurate or even representative in regards to how the portfolios of many longer term bitcoiners seems to play out... and we also know that it is much easier to 2x a small number as compared to a larger number... ..

I do not think it is easier or harder to x2 if the price doubles then you are going to get a 2x return if you have a $1 or $1000 invested but I think that there is more pressure the more money you have invested especially when you have invested a large % of your net worth. I think there is a risk to this because a lot of people cannot stop themselves from taking money out when they see a profit so they might see a x0.3 increase and take it out even if their target was x2 because that pressure and fear of missing the top is real. I think that is the only thing that makes it harder is the pressure but some people can turn that off.

Yes, but I think that I am disliking 2x per year because it is seemingly overly optimistic, so from my point of view it is not a very accurate depiction of reality, even though we can find examples of some folks who invested in bitcoin in early days and perhaps their average cost per BTC is quite low, and each year if we double the price, their returns or "on track"..

...  If I would have gotten into bitcoin at $100 in mid 2013, then even 2x per year becomes difficult to sustain because it looks like this:
2014 $200
2015 $400
2016 $800
2017 $1,600
2018 $3,200
2019 $6,400
2020 $12,800
2021 $25,600
2022 $51,200
2023 $102,400

So those dumbass claims are wanting us to start back in 2010 (at below $1), 2011 (at $2) or 2012 (at below $10) to make the 2x per year to be sustainable up until now, but it is not likely going to be sustainable into the future, and also it is not fucking ridiculous even if it is true on paper for those people who got in at those earlier bitcoin hardly has a price prices.

2010: $0.26
2011: $2.80
2012: $13.76
2013: $786
2014: $373
2015: $389
2016: $712
2017: $8,753
2018: $4,132
2019: $7,326
2020: $20,676
2021: $69,020
2022: $15,554
2023: $ 21,841

Bitcoin history starts at 0.26 when counting from 2010.  The price of Bitcoin has often increased by 12x in 2011.  In 2013, the price of Bitcoin rose again, but in 2014 it fell in half again.  And lastly in 2021 the price of Bitcoin reached the highest price of 69.020 dollars which encouraged the investors a lot.  But by 2023 Bitcoin price had dumped 3x.

So I think 2x per year doesn't count.  Because investors will be disappointed because once invested he will think that he will get double the wealth.  So it is better to analyze the complete market without disappointing the investors.

I guess we mostly agree Popkon6 - even though I doubt that your BTC prices for each of those years are really representative - unless you can describe what is the methodology in terms of establishing the price that you list for each year... nonetheless, I am not going to argue that the BTC prices that you list are not somewhat representative in terms of being in the ballpark of where the BTC price was at (or could have been) at various points in each of those years.

So in that sense we are making a similar point in terms of the impracticality of making claims that there has been an average of 2x per year increase and to suggest that such a mythical representation is realistic.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/14/fca-and-west-yorkshire-police-raid-crypto-operators-in-uk-first
"While the FCA does not regulate cryptoassets, it does require all firms dealing in crypto to register and prove they have effective anti-money laundering and terrorist financing controls.

There are no crypto ATMs registered with the FCA, meaning any crypto ATM operating in the UK is doing so illegally."

The war on freedom

I had to click on the link in order to see that the FCA stands for Financial Control Authority, and of course, we are likely going to see all kinds of variations on the kinds of "authority" that various government agencies might have and/or how they might interpret their mandate to "serve the public interest," which frequently they will also be contradicting themselves in the various ways that they attempt to describe what they are doing and why they are doing it.

I am not personally against the ideas that motivate government to exist, but of course, many of us bitcoiners are going to be aggravated when we can see that bitcoin is being defined as contrary to the public interest (to even exist) or that the various "crypto" scams are lumped in with bitcoin as if they were all the same thing... just like individuals and the press are going to learn how to use their terms more accurately so we can attempt to understand if they are talking about bitcoin or something else, government agencies (and officials) are going to need to learn the same things about language in order that we can understand if they are even trying to act within the public interest.. which is how they have any authority to carry out mandates and to interpret them.. but if they lose confidence of the public that they are just engaging in bullshit witch hunts that merely disempower or try to control people, then that surely does not seem (from my perspective) to be within the interest of the public, even if that is what the government authorities/agencies claim that is what they are doing.