Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

@JJG








Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG








Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.

Yeah.. but you still failed/refused to either stick with the actual hypothetical or to change it with some kinds of specifics.

Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014?  

I am not saying that you won't do better because you are smarter than the normal normie.. however, we not talking about smart fucks like uie-pooie..  We are attempting to refer to a potential application of some kind of a principle that can generally be applicable to normies that would be better than DCA..

Come on.  Go ahead.  


Do it.

Do it


Do it!!!!




Give us some guidelines beyond vaguely suggesting that it could be possible to beat DCA if you happen to have 100hours per week to dedicate to study the matter.. blah blah blah.. so fucking what.. you beat DCA and you got 22 BTC rather than 20 BTC (with the same amount of dollar value put into it) but you spent 100 hours per week doing it.  Do normies have that amount of time and abilities and are they smart enough?  


I say:























NOT!!!!!!!    






That's why start with DCA first as the default mode.. and then.. if you got's ur lil selfie some "special skills, abilities and circumstances" then you can start to branch out while keeping the basics, the foundations and the starting principles in mind... stay humble and stack sats.. blah blah blah.. matt odell

[bitebits]

@JJG





Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new?

Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum..

[...]

There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is.

[philipma1957]

Do you want always be high?  

yes

nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Do you want always be high? 

yes

nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs.

youre right

so leave it to professionals like us, we are all over that

[xhomerx10]

Today is Random Acts of Kindness Day (in the USA at least) and there's still plenty of time in the day to be spontaneously kind towards someone (other than yourself).

edit: I'd better clarify that there's nothing wrong in being kind to yourself - you might need it.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG



Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new?

Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum..

[...]

There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is.

Nothing wrong with figuring out how to employ your strategies and deploy your capital in ways to supplement DCA.. If you read my earlier responsive post, you should see that I am not unfriendly to either lump summing and buying on dips to supplement DCA, but you cannot forget about the power of DCA.. even if you have a lump sum at your disposal.

Let's say that you are somewhat new to BTC, and you have a $100k investment portfolio that you already established.  So you have become convinced that some kind of a medium appropriation into bitcoin would be warranted, and so you saw JJG's (or whoever's) suggestion to consider anywhere between 1% and 25% as your starting point, so you decided (you are responsible for your own decision) to allocate 12.5% to BTC.. So if you do it right away, that 12.5% is $12,500, and if you reallocate and lump sum into bitcoin right away, then you are taking that $12,500 from some other areas of your portfolio that might have tax consequences and even other consequences that might concern you in regards to financial and psychological difficulties in terms of doing it all at once.

Instead, you figured out a way that you could be more aggressive and establish your stake into bitcoin over 6 months or over 12 months.. and frankly you are much more comfortable in your ability to achieve such reallocation target in 12 months without having to suffer as much financially and/or psychologically.  Think about it.  There are a variety of factors, and sure you might have various assets that are allocated in such a way that you are not going to have tax consequences and you might even be able to liquidate some of your various assets, but the more that you try to create lump sums that are "available to uie pooie, the more that you are fucking with the hypothetical, because they hypothetical ONLY gives you $100 per week of cashflow that is coming in that would be available.. in order to attempt to figure out matters.. and yeah, maybe you inherited some money and you got a bonus, you closed a deal blah blah blah.   

So yeah, just like you said, there are ways that not only do you have a lump sum that has come available, it also is available in cash right now... yet even if you read my previous post and had understood what I was saying (which seems that you did not), you would still see that I had already suggested that a presumption would be to divide your surprise $12k lump sum that became available to you into three parts which would be 1/3 in DCA, 1/3 lump sum right away buying and 1/3 into buying on dips.  Sure, as an adult with full discretion, you could choose to allocate differently with that $12k that comes available to you, and you read the study and you decide that it is best to put it all in right away without delay.. and surely, I am not unsympathetic to those kinds of leanings, because for sure currently, we are in a situation in which BTC prices are just barely testing the 200-week moving average, but they had been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average (even 35% below the 200-week moving average) for more than 8 months, so you are speaking to the choir to some extent when you are telling me that we are at historical low price point and that lump sum might well perform way the fuck better than DCA during times like this... but still even though I consider myself to be a normie in several ways, I am not any kind of normal normie when it comes to bitcoin since I have had my eyes glued to charts for more than 9 years and reading (and battling) on the topic for more than 9 years too... but is a newbie normie going to feel confident enough to put 100% of their purported $12k of surprise new cash into lump sum rather than allocating some of that value to DCA and buying on dips?  I question those kinds of presumptions regarding what is a "newbie" normie.. .. that's for sure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.

@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:

"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term.
The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."

You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.

Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct.
"Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump sum.
I did it myself a couple times in the oughts.
In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.

@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:

"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term.
The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."

You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.

Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct.
"Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump some.
I did it myself a couple times in the oughts.
In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.

I stand by my points.

You are not making any new points, and you are also refusing to actually either work with the actual hypothetical that's in front of us (which is the $100 per week income starting from January 2014) or to provide specifics regarding at which point in time extra lump sum dollar amounts would be available (at the beginning of the investment period or at various points in the middle).

You are also failing/refusing to deal with my already concession that the more sophisticated that you are (or the more time that you have to study the matter), then the more likely you can tweak to improve upon a strict DCA approach by employing lump sum buying and or buying on dips.

In other words, you seem to be making up your own bullshit, attributing false issues to me and then saying:  "lookie, lookie, I am the winner" blah blah blah.. It's not that I don't even like you, but you surely are not grappling with the actual employment of a system or attempting to make fair, reasonable and practical comparative applications with anything more than vague innuendos.. with some kind of seeming maniacal obsession of wanting to be right no matter what.. .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToHo29kD9Go


A Light That Never Comes




Only the IQ above 300 get it




Nah, you don't know me
Lightning above and a fire below me
You cannot catch me, cannot hold me
You cannot stop, much less control me
When it rains, it pours
When the floodgates open, brace your shores
That pressure don't care when it breaks your doors
Say it's all you can take, better take some more




almost there

[OgNasty]

Dollar cost averaging is obviously a good thing.

If you’re a chartist you probably think that this is a setup for a double top scenario, which might lead to shorting here since that is a bearish sign. However, I think a triple top is more likely, and that will probably the last bear trap before we see a jump up. So beware the double top and buy the dip of any triple top if such a pattern develops as we attempt to smash through $25K.

[cygan]

[Hamza2424]

BTC can do anything as a boyfriend in love but check what happens next to it.
Haha On your side price dropping ohh noo but look at it here i am sure its quite hard to bear but there is no other option.
its like
Price vs Girlfriend but situation is same



 

[Gachapin]

BTC can do anything as a boyfriend...

Hamza, so you must have had a lot of boyfriends !  How is it to live as a gay in Pakistan ?  Do you guys get beaten by Muslims, when you kiss in the open?

[goldkingcoiner]

If you change the DCA strategy to one which buys the dip at seemingly steadying-out bearish market conditions instead of at fixed time intervals, one might see completely different results.


HODl seems to prove the best strategy only when assuming 5000%+ future prices. And what chance does a normie trader have to spot Bitcoin's potential in the early days?

So I see that study as fundamentally flawed. You simply cannot take into account pre-mainstream prices just as you cannot account for ICO/IPO investments turning out to be unicorns.

This is why DCA>LS

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

BTC can do anything as a boyfriend...

Hamza, so you have had a lot of boyfriends!  How is it to live as a gay in Pakistan?  Do you guys get beaten by Muslims, when you kiss in the open?

Hahaha, Dear Alhamdulillah First of I am Muslim, and I am the Man by strength and by words. I remember the unusual and rough talk on this Gay topic if I'm not forgetting it was at some Event I am not sure if was it Christmas or Eid. Anyway, hopefully this time things are going to be better than previous times..