Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[1714328746]

1714328746

[1714328746]

1714328746

[1714328746]

1714328746

[1714328746]

1714328746

[1714328746]

1714328746

[Hamza2424]

Btc is above 50% domination even WITH stables...on the way to 70-80%.

very nice rally looking for the 32.2k by days end.

Hmm expecting a healthy correction, days end. Still rather than being greedy Holdddd.. Hollldd... Position.

[Biodom]

We are so back!

Bitcoin to $180,000 minimum within 18 months.

$200k - $300k i guess with a classic soul crushing 50% - 70% drop will land the price nicely under $100k and above last $69k ATH.

Imagine buying back at $80k and witness the awe inspiring pump towards the $500k - $1 million range in 2029.

<snip of gif>

To me, it is risky to assume that 70+% downs will continue. They probably would if we peak at 500K, though.
If the large declines continue-a short calculation: assuming that we underscore the prior peak by the same % as in 2022 means the next LOW (after the ATH) would be 55.42K, making the 2024-2025 ATH at 222K (if decline would be 75% vs last of 77%) or 184.7K if the followup decline would be 70% (most likely scenario as we seem to lose about 7% decline "potential" every cycle: 77 vs 84 the last two.

TL;DR The peak might be $185-222K, then low of 55-60K. This means buy now and don't sell..ever, apart from when you must (or you are @JJG with a buy/sell excel-driven strategy  ).

[MCUKing]

[Unknown Op]

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

Very first efficient Hydrogen Making Machine from Saltwater created. Ffuuck oil by 2040. Let them carpet makers be back at carpet making

[philipma1957]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know if this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

I would be long dead when that inflation hits.  but in

2024 3.125
2028 1.5625
2032 0.78125
2036 0.390625
2040 0.1953125

many that post here will be alive in 2040 that 0.1953 size reward will pose issues yet to be solved as of today. (but there are ways to solve it)

btw a 500000 dollar price or even a 1,000,000 dollar price does not quite fix the issues of that small reward. do the math a block reward today = 195k

at 1 million a block reward in 2040 is 195k but at 1 million the value is 20 trillion vs 600 billion.

protecting 20 trillion with the same amount of money as protecting 600 billion now is not a great idea.

I see a lot happening from now to 2040 .

If I make to that year I would be 83 years old.

If will be fun to see how things are by then.

[Volgastallion]

So we expend a long time talking about not overhype any little bullrun we see, and when it comes we can see here a lot of speculations here to 250.000usd or more... really?

Dont missunderstand i hope BTC to reach 1 million but not being to fool and dont overhype this bullrun thinking in the end of the year we are gonna be on another ATH. Please be more serious.

The world itself its in a very complicated conyuntural trap, so its not the same analisys we can made for 5 years ago.

[Richy_T]

protecting 20 trillion with the same amount of money as protecting 600 billion now is not a great idea.

This is what Core believe they have helped answer with their insistence that a protection against DOS is an essential piece of the code. Some have a difference of opinion.

[shahzadafzal]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[pixie85]

If I make to that year I would be 83 years old.

If will be fun to see how things are by then.

I hope you'll be coming here despite being 83. I know a number of people older than 80, so you have decent chance.

I wasn't expecting bitcoin to launch like that today. It needed some time to digest the blackrock news, I guess.
A lot of resistance above 30k. This candle is going to do some poking before it finally goes through the ceiling.

[philipma1957]

My dad's great line was 80 sounds good til you are 79.

83 does sound decent the oldest male in my family was an uncle that got to 93.

Men in my family tend to do 75-85

Women tend to do 86-93.

1 uncle did the 93
1 aunt did 98

[shahzadafzal]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

[Hueristic]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

[shahzadafzal]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

I completely agree with you!

It is also true that space tourism is advancing at a faster pace compared to space exploration.

[philipma1957]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

I completely agree with you!

It is also true that space tourism is advancing at a faster pace compared to space exploration.

Why is that? Maybe "men in black" is real.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com