Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shahzadafzal]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

I completely agree with you!

It is also true that space tourism is advancing at a faster pace compared to space exploration.

[philipma1957]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

I completely agree with you!

It is also true that space tourism is advancing at a faster pace compared to space exploration.

Why is that? Maybe "men in black" is real.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[pixie85]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

I've read they had a safety mechanism in form of a timer that drops ballast automatically and makes the vessel go to surface.
They also had an inflatable balloon thing that they could use to resurface if there was no power or there was engine damage.

There's a chance they have resurfaced and are drifting somewhere waiting to be found but even if that's the case will die from lack of oxygen tomorrow because they can't open the hatch from the inside.

[Hueristic]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

I've read they had a safety mechanism in form of a timer that drops ballast automatically and makes the vessel go to surface.
They also had an inflatable balloon thing that they could use to resurface if there was no power or there was engine damage.

There's a chance they have resurfaced and are drifting somewhere waiting to be found but even if that's the case will die from lack of oxygen tomorrow because they can't open the hatch from the inside.

"can't open the hatch from the inside."

What??? really?

Thats retarded if true.

If nothing else a small acetylene torch can cut a hull hole.

[pixie85]

That's what I've read in at least 2 separate articles. Once the crew is inside the hatch is screwed on top and they cannot get out unless someone unscrews it. This means if they resurface and aren't found they'll die anyway.

Another strange thing is they don't have any electrical or air wire connecting them to the ship on the surface. They cannot be pulled out and they cannot be powered if they lose power.

[sirazimuth]

OT:

The survival chances for Tinan's passengers are a mere 1%, and even if they are located, the likelihood increases only to 15%.

We currently lack the capability to rescue anyone in such a scenario.

That makes me wonder are we ready for the space exploration? How can we venture into the vast unknown when we haven't fully explored our own backyard?

Don't mix up exploration and tourism.

Tourist….”I want to get locked inside a metal cylinder and plopped to the ocean floor 12000 feet deep under immense pressure with virtually no communication and a limited oxygen supply.”
OceanGate Expeditions …”Sure, that will be $250,000 please. Sign these waivers because you might die. Why do you want to do it anyway?”
Tourist….”I want to desecrate the Titanic gravesite and take pictures for my Instagram so I can get lots of likes. What could possibly go wrong?”

[DireWolfM14]

That's what I've read in at least 2 separate articles. Once the crew is inside the hatch is screwed on top and they cannot get out unless someone unscrews it. This means if they resurface and aren't found they'll die anyway.

Another strange thing is they don't have any electrical or air wire connecting them to the ship on the surface. They cannot be pulled out and they cannot be powered if they lose power.

The whole thing is scary as fuck, especially for those of us who are claustrophobic.  It must be nightmarish for those folks, if they are still alive.  Imagine 96 hours of impending doom...  I'm still hopeful they'll be found alive and well, but time is getting short at this point.

In regards to space exploration, if I was stuck in a small space capsule adrift in space I think that would be less scary than being stuck in a submarine at the bottom of the ocean.  I never said claustrophobia was a rational fear...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

To go down to the Titanic wreck in a simple submersible that has a depth rating close to 100% of what it is maximum designed for is just idiotic.
The cylinder shell that holds the "crew" was woven carbon fibre with titanium rings using epoxy, so no bolts to hold anything critical together.
That doesn't sound good enough going by what sub experts are saying.
To paint the top white is stupid also. Why not a bright yellow or orange colour so that it is easily spotted if it did surface?

I think the men are by now long gone, they probably died instantly on Sunday or the latest by Monday/early Tuesday due to hypothermia and/or suffocation/asphyxiation.

I don't buy the 96 hour life support thing at all as everything OceanGate says appears to be embellished. Maybe 2-3 days tops was possible.

Could the tapping that was heard today still be them? Hmmm, maybe. I'd give it a 0.1% chance.

There is a chance the vessel will eventually be recovered if it at least is on the ocean floor near the Titanic wreck in one piece.
But if it imploded there might be not much left of it except debris and there could be nothing necessarily obvious to spot after a while with currents.
It could just be like MH370 where eventually a piece is found next year washed ashore somewhere and that's it.


I became interested in the Titanic after watching the Titanica documentary in the early 90s in a domed Omnimax theatre (now simply called Imax). I reckon that documentary inspired James Cameron tremendously in the side story (the non Romeo & Juliet parts) for his movie, as they also went down in the Mirs with the Kaldysh as support vessel.

What always stayed with me was the argument in the submersible about opening a suitcase on the ocean floor or not. I've read many books on Titanic, even about the hearings that followed.

I never minded the exploration of the Titanic wreck, I have nothing against James Cameron or Robert Ballard. They both provided great insights into what happened.
But anyone trying to build a tourist attraction out of this dangerous activity is just unhinged. I guess I see it the same as climbing Mount Everest in some ways.
And you could thus debate if there even should be a rescue or recovery attempt, often for Mount Everest this is deemed as impossible and bodies (estimated 200) are just left up there.

I'm sure (sponsored for scientific reasons) exploration of the Titanic wreck will continue eventually, it may be a decade or so before someone does it again but it won't be tourism ever again I suspect.

History will probably conclude that OceanGate was more reckless than The White Star Line itself.

I feel sorry for the 19 year old kid.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way,..... I would like to mention:
....[edited out]

It is difficult to conclude without knowing the amount of Bitcoin, but i do hope it was significant amount for you! I mean we do see flash crashes every now and then, why not the opposite...

I kind of have a figure in my head regarding how much it is (was), and I consider it as a very significant amount, even though probably it is only a few percentage of my overall BTC holdings - since I have moved a lot of my BTC holdings off of exchanges and never had any kind of policy to sell large amounts of my BTC on the way up.. even if the BTC price were to stay up.

Many here might recall (since I repeat my lil selfie so frequently) that I have a policy and practice of ONLY selling a relatively small percentage of BTC on the way up.. so there is a kind of built in presumption that is built into the way that I attempt to engage in BTC portfolio management, regarding what if the BTC price were to go shooting up without any kind of meaningful/significant correction that would allow me to by back while the BTC price were to be shooting up, and would I have to question myself about whether I still would be happy that I had sold the amount of BTC that I end up selling on the way up without having regrets about it.  

In some sense this little mistake that happened yesterday provided an opportunity for a variation of that vision to play out.. but the ONLY thing ended up being that it was a mistake, so the BTC price ended up coming back down to where the price was prior to the mistake... So it is almost like getting the benefits of both worlds.. the BTC price going shooting up, but then correcting back down almost immediately.

Another crazy angle, is what to do?  what to do?  Do I just buy back everything and increase my BTC stash by a pretty good sized chunk.. or do I kind of divide up the whole chuck of "extra money (BTC and USDT) that was not expected.. in other words the extra money (value) is like icing on the cake.. it was not anything that I expected or even needed - but in some sense, at the same time, since it was a pretty good sized free gift, then I largely just decided to plug aspects of it back in, and also to just keep what I am doing - but maybe just increase some of my budget in the coming year or so (merely based on this happening), even though we might get some more windfall that allows for more increasing of some of the budget that applies to many of us longer term HODLers who might already be mostly shaving off BTC from time to time, and a kind of mistake that just happens, helps to resolve some of my dilemma regarding how to possible shave off some value from time to time, my dilemma (to the extent that I had a dilemma) has been resolved for me.. including quite a bit of windfall (bonus value).

Since Binance is getting quite a bit of heat recently (even in the courts), I did move a bit of the extra BTC that I had bought back off of the exchange, and I probably will just continue to move BTC off of that exchange as some of my currently adjusted BTC buy orders are likely going to continue to get filled (and the various ways that I will likely continue to convert that extra USDT into BTC - or otherwise maybe spend it in the coming months/or maybe year.. and then also there are chances that BinanceUS assets could get frozen too.. yet it is difficult to know how likely that is .. including the ongoing petitions from the US Govt. currently including the SEC, but could end up involving the DOJ at some point in the future.. since the US Govt. seems to have such a hard-on against Binance (and BinanceUS) in recent times).

I wonder if my little windfall was as good as Goldkingcoiner's 80x mistake?  Who knows?  Could be a question/answer that is relative?  relative to our own circumstances.  how long was goldkingcoiner able to live off of his 80x mistake?  Sometimes the ramifications are quite extensive because it allows for potentially long term rippling benefits.. that are not always easy to quantify.. just like some of my decisions in 2014/2105/2016 had long term rippling effects in terms of having more bitcoin to work with rather than someone who might have taken  a more conservative (or whimpy approach) to their BTC accumulation during those times.

[edited out]

Nice one JJG

Thanks.  It's like being in the right place at the right time.

I know someone who recently got a lot of his/her BTC caught up in various bankruptcy situations.. and other ways of losing his/her BTC due to sloppy management of the holdings.. and in some sense I feel bad because the totality of my gains from this mistake seems to be worth close to the amount that the other person has lost (or otherwise got tied up), and so there can be some value in terms of staying alive and having some BTC to play with during these kinds of weird but sometimes fortuitous times.

[Gachapin]

congrats JJG, tremendous trade!

happy for bob's newly found farm felicity..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[darkangel11]

I think the men are by now long gone, they probably died instantly on Sunday or the latest by Monday/early Tuesday due to hypothermia and/or suffocation.

I also think that's the case because if they had power they would've used the engines to push themselves to the surface. With no power there's no heating and it's freezing down there.

Could the tapping that was heard today still be them? Hmmm, maybe. I'd give it a 0.1% chance.

The tapping could be the sound of parts of the sub dropping onto the Titanic.
Bad joke, I know.

[BitcoinBunny]

Come on man, stay above 30K. 

[JayJuanGee]

By the way,..... I would like to mention:

Some of you may know that a bit over a week ago, Binance US had stated that it may lose its banking services, so it suggested that either people withdraw their USD or convert them over to USDT.

I converted all mine over to USDT and then re-established my buy/sell orders on Binance US as part of the BTC/USDT pair, and so it was a bit strange that about 3.5 hours ago (calculated from the time of this post), I was waiting for my sell order at $28,900 to fill, and then all of a sudden all of my orders filled from $28,900 all the way up to $129,400... .. and there was some kind of a fat finger or something, and then the price moved back down to $28,800-ish... so I bought back all the BTC that I had sold (plus a little extra), and reset my BTC sell orders and also ended up with some extra USDT out of the deal, too.. ..  I don't really want to disclose the amounts, but it surely adds up... and I have not exactly added it up.. I suppose that I could do some math at some point.

Are you still using Binance US?
I mean knowing the risk that there might be a problem anytime soon (might not be) and still using it. I won't say it is too smart to continue using Binance now.

Apparently, I am still using Binance US, otherwise I would not have this personal experience story to tell you about.

You got smartness figured out, apparently.

Over the years, I have used quite a few different exchanges, and it seems that I have figured out some ways to not hold large amounts on any exchanges, even though surely some might consider my amounts to be large and the risk NOT to be worth it, and yes, each of us needs to figure out our own risk tolerance and even if we understand the risks.  I did not have any money on Terra luna, Celsius, Gemini earn, GBTC, Voyager, Blockfi, or FTX.. so maybe I am just lucky?  And my time is going to come.  By the way, I did lose some money on BTC-e.. so maybe I am just too stubborn?  And I have been hacked previously (through sim swap techniques), so maybe I am just too willing to lose money? 

I do have some back up ways of various kinds of bitcoin wallets that I use.. and I don't use Ledger... and I hardly have very many shitcoins, though I do have some (but don't really talk about them too much since they are not really much of my focus.. likely less than 1% of all of my "crypto" holdings is in shitcoins.. and sometimes I do have to do some managing (or moving) of those coins too... though again, I don't really talk about that not very important stuff very much... Oh yeah, I have some BNB.. since 2016. that I bought as a kind of fluke to use as a kind of way to get trading discounts on Binance.. I still hold around 2/3 of those coins that I bought in 2016 -  they are worth about 13.5x more than what I paid for them in 2016.. and I don't really care if they go to zero or not.. I just have them.. same thing with some of my other shitcoins, I don't really look at them very much, even though I hold some of them.

Especially Binance US. Imagine you were swapping your coins, and suddenly it went down. You will blame yourself,

Why would I blame myself?  I already know that Binance and Binance US has been on the hotseat for quite a while.. and what about Coinbase, should people stop using Coinbase too?  Oh no the Binance situation (level of scary) is much moar worser, right? 

 I know that binance (and binance US) are not even close to the same kind of shame as FTX, even though a lot of dumb and ill-informed people talk about Binance and FTX as if Binance were the same as FTX.

and it will remain the dumbest decision for you to use Binance US, knowing there is a problem going on.

There are probably dumber decisions that people can make in life...  so by definition, whatever I am doing could not be "the dumbest".. if you even know the meaning of the words that you choose to use, and I am thinking that it can be quite dumb to assume too much about the situation of another person.. of course, you are just trying to help, right? Especially since I likely suggested that you were not as smart as you are presenting yourself as being.

I hope nothing will happen like this. But nobody knows.

That's right no one knows the future, including knowing whether it is too risky to use Binance US as a service.  It was pretty fucking risky to use FTX, but a lot of people lost a lot of money by using that crap and they did not even perceive using FTX was much if any risk.  I didn't lose any money by using FTX.

So pray tell.. what kind of advice are you giving?  Do you know enough about anything to be giving advice in regards to which exchanges to use or not use or the various ways to get bitcoin or to participate in various aspects of the bitcoin economy?  How about other ways that people hold their coins?  Do you have any further advice that you would like to give?   People need to know... and to learn from learn bitcoin.

[edited out]

Congrats Mr. JJG!  You must have been a boy scout as seems you were adequately peepared for uppity

Seems like a kind of weird luck, but surely there is some value in terms of being prepared, like you say.. to be in the right place at the right time...and to have the sell orders active and in place.

I recall one time in around 2016 when Gemini was still pretty new, Gemini had reversed buy orders connected with one of the extreme DOWNity candles that I thought that I had benefited from (and then had all of those "lucky" buy orders reversed).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It is difficult to conclude without knowing the amount of Bitcoin, but i do hope it was significant amount for you! I mean we do see flash crashes every now and then, why not the opposite...

Hopefully it is enough to mitigate the risk of not holding your own keys.
@ JJG

I doubt that the balancing is exactly clear in regards to the way that I have chosen to engaging in BTC maintenance over the years - rather than just stocking everything away into cold storage, I have found some utility towards attempting to participate in various aspects of the bitcoin economy.. even if there are a lot of risks of losing your coins, like you mentioned.. but I doubt that I would have been able to coldly hold as many coins as I have, over the years if I had not been participating in the ways that I had been doing.

So I have mentioned in other posts, that I believe that I am able to be more aggressive in my holdings and to otherwise off set psychological issues related to holding coin by some of the ways that I have chosen to participate.. so I am not exactly clear, if I would have more coins by not participating and just stocking (stacking) them away.. as some holders seem to do (or try to do... are they more or less aggressive due to their seemingly lower levels of participation in aspects of bitcoin centralized/quasi-centralized financialized/speculation layers?  I don't claim to know.

What about a re-launch of the vroom chopper starting from 30k ?

That would be cheating.

You must suffer more.

You must suffer until moral improves.. .which is $69k.. .helrow?...

I will admit that it could take a while. 








Patience you must have young grasshopper.

We are so back!

Bitcoin to $180,000 minimum within 18 months.

I am starting to think that the odds are getting pretty good that the bottom is in... but gosh.. I am not sure if that means that we are ready to go up, just yet...


......and $180k in 18 months.. that's pretty specific... - even for a Nostradamus wanna be like ur lil selfie.


 

[philipma1957]

or is this  the 2019 June July rally?

8500 June 1
7998 June 7
12900 June 26
13200 July 1
12500 July 9
10082 July 31


I guess we find out in July.

[HI-TEC99]

...

It is also true that space tourism is advancing at a faster pace compared to space exploration.

Why is that? Maybe "men in black" is real.