Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Biodom]

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor


You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

Using your bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly?
Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be.
Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom.

[philipma1957]

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor


You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

No not quite correct.

The wait adjustment for drinks in your example is close to instant.  In mining btc it is as long as 17 days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Gachapin]

SEC Asked Coinbase to Halt Trading of All Cryptos, Except Bitcoin.
....

this one is from Reuters:

SEC asked Coinbase to trade only in bitcoin before suing crypto exchange
https://www.reuters.com/technology/sec-asked-coinbase-stop-trading-cryptocurrencies-other-than-bitcoin-prior-suing-2023-07-31/

with this obvious stand of the SEC on crypto security tokens, Bitcoin should double against these scams within an eye blink...  if the market was rational ... but well...

Don't be like that....if bitcoin is strong it does not matter if there are other 'tokens'.
Besides, there are other tokens that are similar to bitcoin in the way they are issued with some of them mentioned here from time to time.
Think about it: if they "cancel" everything else, bitcoin would certainly be next in US, probably for decades...just like trading in gold was.

afaik nobody wants to cancel anything there.  But if you issue or sell a security, you have to follow the law in this day and age.
And the Howey Test is clear & easy to understand. If you choose to ignore it, accept the consequences.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the wild west times of this market, and made money.  But I'm not too sad that these days come to an end, and that scammers cannot fleece newbs left and right by selling lies and shit anymore.

Sure there are coins that are obviously no securities. But I don't expect much from a federal agency. And I think it takes time for them to work through thousands of coins in order to decide what they are.  Luckily everyone know Bitcoin quite well nowadays.

 

[philipma1957]

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor


You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

Using you bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly?
Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be.
Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom.

Yeah I think we range 10 to 17 or 18 days a jump.
Most are between 12 and 16.

His example is kind of poor.

As being an alcoholic drinker is not being a profitable miner.

I make profits consistently since 2018 every month I made some coin above expenses.

Calling miners alcoholics is saying miners lose consistently. The reality is we don't.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

<snip>

Using you bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly?
Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be.
Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom.
[/quote]


The caveat is that the current fee structure won't work in 2080 or even 2056 or even 2052.

There will be changes or BTC will not fair well. As LTC/DOGE is structured to last better than BTC.

Obviously I am not the only one that sees these issues. I only wish I could stick around to see how it shakes out.

[Greyhats]

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor


You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

Using you  bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly?
Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be.
Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom.

Yeah I think we range 10 to 17 or 18 days a jump.
Most are between 12 and 16.

His example is kind of poor.

As being an alcoholic drinker is not being a profitable miner.

I make profits consistently since 2018 every month I made some coin above expenses.

Calling miners alcoholics is saying miners lose consistently. The reality is we don't.

Hold your horses there cowboy  I think am getting closer to an understanding.

In my analogy the alcoholics left at the bar are miners who don’t leave,  the core, like when massive amounts of hash rate turned off there so far seems to be a core of miners who keep mining or a % of hash rate. If core stay then block reward share increases  for them because the difficulty goes down(less miners competing ) I can’t comment if they are profitable or not but would assume they are or they would be part of the group who turned their gear off. The losers are people who have left then though right? They stopped receiving their share of reward.

In the analogy the bar tender is the blocks, the evening is the epoch. The drinkers are the miners. The drinks are the reward.

Also apologies if this a trigger to any recovering alcoholics it’s just where my mind went when thinking about mining difficulty.

Edit: spelling

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BitcoinPak]

Hi, This 2022-2025 Bitcoin cycle is behaving so much like the 2014-2017 Bitcoin cycle.  Prepare yourselves.
The next time the bitcoin spiral clock is at 7:30, will be at block count 971,250. Source

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BitcoinBunny]

Rest in peace Paul Reubens (Pee-wee Herman).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

... seemingly dumb question.

... I resemble that remark.

.... "artistic interpretation."

dfuk is that?

Well anyway, here's my Sunday haiku....

    

(translation of above "invisible" haiku)
space space space space space
space space space space space space space
space space space space space*

*bear in mind for this particular artistic interpretation, space return carriage= one syllable

Here's my first responsive haiku... responding to your invisible one:







Here is my second responsive haiku, responding to your conflation of the ideas of space and return carriage:















Please note that each of my responsive haikus are artistically expressed in an invisible kind of a way.  Also note:  I have more spaces (return carriages) in the second responsive haiku as contrasted with the first one.  For reasons.

[Torque]

Sure there are coins that are obviously not securities.

Just a clarification, because I think these kind of vague notions are exactly the problem with the "crypto" scam industry.

On CMC there are currently 1.8M+ "cryptocurrencies" listed, and out of all of those I can count the number that are NOT securities on half a hand. Like maybe with 3 or 4 fingers max. Maybe 6 if I squint sideways.

So half a dozen out of 1.8 Million and counting. It's such a disparity that it's not even worth debating.

So...yeah. That.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

sorry you got that wrong
it is

blank blank blank blank blank
blank blank blank blank blank blank blank
blank blank blank blank blank

as we all know JJG makes up 🆙 for shooting blanks with lots of volume.
 😄
Just kidding JJG

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee








eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!



eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!


eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

 

[edited out

I am glad

you are

finally

starting

to become

a degenerate.      

Hahahahahaha


We can relate.... even though 4 SURE you have years and years and years of a headstart on me. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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