Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

[ihaveaquestion]

If Miners are smart and big enough they should (and probably are) creating a futures contract with buyers. This would protect everyone involved.

With such a low price, selling a futures does not seem a great idea to me. Miners already took many risks : the evolution of the hashrate, of the protocol, etc. You take great risks for great rewards, not to cut your opportunity to make great rewards because whatever fear of making money you have. To me, selling a part of your mined stash to keep mining makes sense, but not to sell futures or to try to keep the price low or to sell everything immediately. But many miners have bad strategies, and those ones are going to be out of the market and replaced by professionals. Already happening.

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

I was bullish last week when I saw how the trend had appeared to be weakened and running out of steam. However, that did not mean that we were immediately breaking past $540 into higher levels without another high volume retest of lower levels. The key is volume. There needs to be a big red candle with a lot of volume which does not affect the new upward trend - and price continues to climb back up all the way to where the  candle originated.  So far this has not happened. I had high hopes of it happening last week but it hasn't so, the downtrend is back on until otherwise proven broken.

I don't think there is one bear in control of all of this or someone who has a malicious intent to bring the price down. Rather it is a collection of competing and opposing forces. It is a market - and right now one side is stronger than the other.

[windjc]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over. The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this.  Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so.  These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do.  They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.

I was bullish last week when I saw how the trend had appeared to be weakened and running out of steam. However, that did not mean that we were immediately breaking past $540 into higher levels without another high volume retest of lower levels. The key is volume. There needs to be a big red candle with a lot of volume which does not affect the new upward trend - and price continues to climb back up all the way to where the  candle originated.  So far this has not happened. I had high hopes of it happening last week but it hasn't so, the downtrend is back on until otherwise proven broken.

I don't think there is one bear in control of all of this or someone who has a malicious intent to bring the price down. Rather it is a collection of competing and opposing forces. It is a market - and right now one side is stronger than the other.

I actually think this scenario is less and less likely. Mainly because there are so many fewer coins being traded on exchanges now that Gox is gone and China has severe restrictions.  Everyone is holding or, if they are not, then they are doing transactions off exchange.

I am not sure anymore that there is enough fiat and coins on the exchanges for there to be a massive 200K volume day. Not unless the price drops to 270 or below and even then, I don't know how much can really be traded in one day anymore.

The formula should probably be more about the % of coins on exchanges being traded in a potential capitulation day. Of course there is no way to measure that % or cooresponding # to keep an eye out for.

If people don't sell, eventually fiat will arrive. But it could be 6+ months from now. Thats a long time for people not to sell.

[el_rlee]

Anybody wants the price to go up? I simply could sell a big portion of my stash, that would be a guarantee for the price to raise and never go lower again for me to buy back...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Blue]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

just why has bitcoinwisdom not yet implemented the lila draw function ??

straight lines are mostly bulshit anyways

[gizmoh]

Anybody wants the price to go up? I simply could sell a big portion of my stash, that would be a guarantee for the price to raise and never go lower again for me to buy back...

A small sacrifice for the greater good. The Gods will owe you one, kindly proceed 

[el_rlee]

Anybody wants the price to go up? I simply could sell a big portion of my stash, that would be a guarantee for the price to raise and never go lower again for me to buy back...

have you tried to sell just 0,01 BTC instead of all ?

outsmart the gods?!

[windjc]

Houbi with a new 24hr low.

[dreamspark]

Dont you think we are seeing the effects of no fiat going into the Chinese exchanges? The Chinese deadlines have passed and now we are seeing this effect, maybe its a dampened one due to people selling in anticipation...

[gentacomp]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

And why its goes down ? I dont see any bad news, and china's schedule for Global Bitcoin Summit 2014 in Beijing is coming up...

[windjc]

Dont you think we are seeing the effects of no fiat going into the Chinese exchanges? The Chinese deadlines have passed and now we are seeing this effect, maybe its a dampened one due to people selling in anticipation...

Does anyone notice that Houbi traders will move their bids up as the bid prices are falling? Instead of letting the falling price come to their bids, they move their bids up like they are afraid that the price will stop moving towards them.

Its so weird.

[dreamspark]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.

[TERA]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.

I'm not even predicting how far it's going to drop - just that it needs to find volume. It could be at 400 and that would be lovely.

[windjc]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.

I'm not even predicting how far it's going to drop - just that it needs to find volume. It could be at 400 and that would be lovely.

My prediction is either above 400 or below 300.  It either ends soon (in the next 30 days) or it gets ugly.

[JayJuanGee]

Dont you think we are seeing the effects of no fiat going into the Chinese exchanges? The Chinese deadlines have passed and now we are seeing this effect, maybe its a dampened one due to people selling in anticipation...

Does anyone notice that Houbi traders will move their bids up as the bid prices are falling? Instead of letting the falling price come to their bids, they move their bids up like they are afraid that the price will stop moving towards them.

Its so weird.

It's bullish.

[TERA]

It either ends soon (in the next 30 days) or it gets ugly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

I'm going to bed now. Let the fireworks begin!