Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/
Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Don't look at me, obviously that is not mine:
* My plots are nicer.
* My private Technical Analysis method gives 0 USD/BTC by July  27th, 2014 19:23:15 UTC.
(Hey, it is still better than that of those Technical Analists on TV who predicted negative price!)
 

[ElectricMucus]

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-april-prices-extrap.png

Horrible chart, because you ignored valid data. You can't just ignore previous years.

JorgeStolfi is truely a master of his craft.  

e: Horrible !   

[JorgeStolfi]

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-april-prices-extrap.png

Horrible chart, because you ignored valid data. You can't just ignore previous years.

I just used the data that the quoted post used.  What were the percentage changes 2009 -> 2010, 2010 -> 2011?

[Bronstad]

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola.

...

A even more simple formula would be to average the numbers -> +1212% (1BTC = $5820)
Or you could take the median -> +314% (1BTC = $1522.90)

 

[Bronstad]

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-april-prices-extrap.png

Horrible chart, because you ignored valid data. You can't just ignore previous years.

I just used the data that the quoted post used.  What were the percentage changes 2009 -> 2010, 2010 -> 2011?

According to research by rpietila (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0), it was roughly 1BTC = $0.005 in 2009 and 2010.

2009 -> 2010 + 0%
2010 -> 2011  + 34000%

[Erdogan]

... It's a high-risk low-reward investment

[..]

If you understand it, it is low risk high reward.

If you still read the main stream media, you see that understanding is not easy. It takes some work and some brains.

[dreamspark]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Wanna be smart arse TA-er...

ZZZ the guy hadn't even read the white paper.

[JorgeStolfi]

According to research by rpietila (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0), it was roughly 1BTC = $0.005 in 2009 and 2010.

He writes that "0.005 USD" is just an arbitrary value.  It seems that there is no data for 2009 -> 2010, and perhaps 300 to 400% 30000 to 40000% for 2010 -> 2011.

I could try to fit a cubic polynomial to those 4 data points, but you would hate the result even more.  

[rpietila]

According to research by rpietila (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0), it was roughly 1BTC = $0.005 in 2009 and 2010.

He writes that "0.005 USD" is just an arbitrary value.

That would be oversimplifying my words. Try: "I have learned of several isolated trades during the time period, none of which has happened at below 0.001 or above 0.01. Because the trading was non-continuous and the individual circumstances may have affected the prices, volume data is not available to me, and many other factors, I have approximated 0.005 for the whole period with no trend."

[dreamspark]

According to research by rpietila (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0), it was roughly 1BTC = $0.005 in 2009 and 2010.

He writes that "0.005 USD" is just an arbitrary value.  It seems that there is no data for 2009 -> 2010, and perhaps 300 to 400% 30000 to 40000% for 2010 -> 2011.

I could try to fit a cubic polynomial to those 4 data points, but you would hate the result even more.  

I can find you some threads that demonstrate that was the approximate exchange rate during that period.

[JorgeStolfi]

That would be oversimplifying my words.

Indeed, sorry.

[adamstgBit]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Wanna be smart arse TA-er...

ZZZ the guy hadn't even read the white paper.

bitcoin is being accepted by some major retailers, governments are making laws about it, new biz in dev. this must mean bitcoin is going to 0.

this TA is beyond retarded.

[JorgeStolfi]

I can find you some threads that demonstrate that was the approximate exchange rate during that period.

Hey, my goal was just to make some salutary fun of price extrapolations.

Frankly, I have no idea what the price will be next year.  AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

[JorgeStolfi]

bitcoin is being accepted by some major retailers, governments are making laws about it, new biz in dev. this must mean bitcoin is going to 0.

this TA is beyond retarded.

Those are "fundamentals". Technical Analysis assumes that all the trends of the fundamentals and their influence on price are "encoded" in the price history, so there is no need consider them explictly.

[rpietila]

AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.

Bitcoin 30-day change (historical, 1500+ datapoints) is 60.6% positive, 39.4% negative.

[Bronstad]

I can find you some threads that demonstrate that was the approximate exchange rate during that period.

Hey, my goal was just to make some salutary fun of price extrapolations.

Nah, your goal is to try and squash any positive sentiment in this thread.

[adamstgBit]

bitcoin is being accepted by some major retailers, governments are making laws about it, new biz in dev. this must mean bitcoin is going to 0.

this TA is beyond retarded.

Those are "fundamentals". Technical Analysis assumes that all the trends of the fundamentals and their influence on price are "encoded" in the price history, so there is no need consider them explictly.

do the "fundamentals" allow a price of <400?

not for more than a few hours

 

[romneymoney]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Wanna be smart arse TA-er...

The smiley face, the grammatical errors, the overconfidence.
"sorry bitcoiners"
Why would they set a troll to moderator?

I'd like to hear how this guy committed his fortune to futures of BTC at under $50 in 2015
It's easy to draw trendlines to anywhere without any skin in the game.

[JorgeStolfi]

Hey, my goal was just to make some salutary fun of price extrapolations.

Nah, your goal is to try and squash any positive sentiment in this thread.

Salesmen want optimistic estimates; traders should want realistic ones. (But I am not claiming that mine are realistic.)

[eiskalt]

jump ship - load the truck - obey the buell!

WROOOMM!