Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[edwardspitz]

any suggestions for a new poll ??

What Exchange is currently leading. I think Stamp

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[windjc]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

[podyx]

Is it possibly to hold longterm with 2.5 leverage making 2.5x the money?

If so, what are the drawbacks?

[aminorex]

Fiat keeps appearing on Huobi some how.

[magicmexican]

Will market react to super expected BTCchina announcement?

[thezerg]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hegde his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

As a spectator, I'd say that this bet has more meaning with a longer term and wider spread.  Narrow and short is just making a joint statement about the size of your respective d*cks :-)  -- essentially saying I am rich enough and bored enough to gamble this on a coin toss.  If it means so little to you, why don't you invest it in something that could enhance BTC valuation? 

But longer and wider is making a statement about whether bitcoin is or isn't going to bubble up again...

In other words, windjc if you are a bull-in-a-bear-suit what's the point of this bet?  Just to prove you are a good at market timing (who cares) or just to get the adrenaline high you've been missing since Dec (chill, man)?

[windjc]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hegde his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

As a spectator, I'd say that this bet has more meaning with a longer term and wider spread.  Narrow and short is just making a joint statement about the size of your respective d*cks :-)  -- essentially saying I am rich enough and bored enough to gamble this on a coin toss.  If it means so little to you, why don't you invest it in something that could enhance BTC valuation? 

But longer and wider is making a statement about whether bitcoin is or isn't going to bubble up again...

In other words, windjc if you are a bull-in-a-bear-suit what's the point of this bet?  Just to prove you are a good at market timing (who cares) or just to get the adrenaline high you've been missing since Dec (chill, man)?

Yes, it is for fun. Not for changing the world. Like most bets. We can give more to charity if you like, but lets not pretend its something its not. It's for fun and bragging rights

I am a bull at heart. Just a bear in the head for now. Unlike Rpeitila who has been relegated to the sidelines like a nervous cheerleader.

[roslinpl]

Explanation

If it will drop to $420 I am going to sell any BTC and buy a pot to make my self happier

Kiddin...

[windjc]

Will market react to super expected BTCchina announcement?

Well, a couple of things.

First of all, if this just came out they should have reacted already, even though they are asleep. Second, we are see profit taking in China this weekend from the dump. There will be more dumps. They always come in multiples. And there is going to be plenty of news over the next 2 weeks.

[thezerg]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hegde his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

As a spectator, I'd say that this bet has more meaning with a longer term and wider spread.  Narrow and short is just making a joint statement about the size of your respective d*cks :-)  -- essentially saying I am rich enough and bored enough to gamble this on a coin toss.  If it means so little to you, why don't you invest it in something that could enhance BTC valuation? 

But longer and wider is making a statement about whether bitcoin is or isn't going to bubble up again...

In other words, windjc if you are a bull-in-a-bear-suit what's the point of this bet?  Just to prove you are a good at market timing (who cares) or just to get the adrenaline high you've been missing since Dec (chill, man)?

Yes, it is for fun. Not for changing the world. Like most bets. We can give more to charity if you like, but lets not pretend its something its not. It's for fun and bragging rights

I am a bull at heart. Just a bear in the head for now. Unlike Rpeitila who has been relegated to the sidelines like a nervous cheerleader.

Awesome then have fun!!! 

[OldGeek]

In general, I agree with you.  I've noticed (I think) some who have long holdings but don't try to influence the mood of this thread.

The complex personalities here are the most interesting to me.  I believe that there are several who practice second level thinking when it comes to making a post here.  I also think that there are some who are capable of third level thinking.

Now you intrigued me  .  What do you call second level thinking?

...

Levels of thinking:

1.   The most common and least complicated; say, you are long and want the price to go up.  You post pictures of trains and rockets and post rebuttals to those opposed to that view.  Most of the participants here fall into this category.

2.   Less common and more difficult to pull off.  Say you are short but pretend to be long.  You enter conversations with those who are long, arguing unconvincingly that the price must rise, thereby giving the impression (to level one thinkers) that the price may, indeed, be ready to decline.

3.   Uncommon and requires much more effort and practice; a combination of 1 & 2 with a large dose of logic, numbers, and charts that back up your supposed position.  So, you are long but you want to influence the level 2 people to believe you are short.  Most of the time you are trying to get the level 2’s angry enough that they will do the opposite of what they believe you want, namely talk up the price so you profit.

4.   There are, supposedly, more levels but they come with increasing complexity.  You run the risk of misjudging and damaging your intent.
 
See also:  Roshambo (Rock, Paper, Scissors) for a game simple enough to be played by pre-school children, but is played by high-rolling gamblers.

For an example, I believe, of level 2 practice, see most of the posts by Proudhon.

[aminorex]

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Then who needs escrow?  Unless you are very close to someone, it is foolish to expect them to behave to a standard of your mind.  One is rarely well advised to assume even that an internet counterparty intends to hold to their commitments, and insane to expect them to hold to restraints to which they have not agreed.  Honor is highly idiosyncratic, above and beyond being cultural, and extreme diversity of idiom and culture is to be expected in a global community.

Certainly you could easily drive the market to 435, in a matter of a few minutes work.  Would it even be manipulation if you had intended to put on a big short anyhow?

 

[oda.krell]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

+1

At 30 days the bet is already at a real risk of ending in a tie. At 90 days, under the original conditions, that's almost guaranteed.

The way I see it, this bet is about making a rather strong, unconditional statement in the middle of a crucial time for the market. At 30 days, it does that just fine.

EDIT: I obviously have no say in this, it's not my bet. But since this is discussed in a public place, you should expect it to be discussed.

[windjc]

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Then who needs escrow?  Unless you are very close to someone, it is foolish to expect them to behave to a standard of your mind.  One is rarely well advised to assume even that an internet counterparty intends to hold to their commitments, and insane to expect them to hold to restraints to which they have not agreed.  Honor is highly idiosyncratic, above and beyond being cultural, and extreme diversity of idiom and culture is to be expected in a global community.

Certainly you could easily drive the market to 435, in a matter of a few minutes work.  Would it even be manipulation if you had intended to put on a big short anyhow?

 

Manipulation is easy to see. For instance, the markets are following Houbi. If they act out of accord with Houbi all of a sudden with a big dump or buy, then its pretty obvious.  Rpeitila cares about his reputation. A LOT. So much so, that I don't think he would openly cheat in this case.

As for me, I am a long term bull. It would be a huge risk to short that many BTC.   I'd have to wire addition funds onto the market, as I am pretty much full fiat at the moment. In fact, I have buy orders in right now, not sell orders.

Im positioned against my own bet at the moment. And I would not change those, because I believe they will get filled on the way to 435.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

It is rising! I can see it with my magnifying glass!!

In next hour I predict +$4

[JayJuanGee]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

30 days is fair.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.

+1

At 30 days the bet is already at a real risk of ending in a tie. At 90 days, under the original conditions, that's almost guaranteed.

The way I see it, this bet is about making a rather strong, unconditional statement in the middle of a crucial time for the market. At 30 days, it does that just fine.

EDIT: I obviously have no say in this, it's not my bet. But since this is discussed in a public place, you should expect it to be discussed.

I believe 30 days is more than enough time to call Rpietila on his request for a bet.  Initially Rpietila's bet request was somewhat general concerning the conditions and the timeline, which Windjc, narrowed some of those terms. 

I like the idea of charity contribution - and maybe it shoudl be better that the charity goes towards some knid of BTC infrastructure or something BTC related (besides a BTC mansion); however, I doubt that the bet needs to be so large as $50K in order to prove the point. 

If someone, such as Rpietila, is asserting that we will "never" see $435 again, then he certainly should feel confident that will NOT occur in the next 30 days.  If the bet is for a smaller amount, let's say $5k or less, then there should be considerable less incentive to manipulate the market (and on honor both parties are already asserting that they will NOT engage in BTC manipulation tactics - which could be included and defined in the bet terms - eg no buying or selling within a certain amount during the time parameters of the bet).

It seems tome that you guys are very close - and really, you should NOT see a lack of balls, to bring down the amount of the bet - b/c the point seems to be putting some stake (not steak) and commitment into the short-term prediction - which does NOT need to be $50K, in order to be meaningful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

$50k or 100 BTC isnt that meaningful when you have 20,000 BTC my friend. Its like 0.5% of your stash, I bet you would take a bet you thought you would win for .25BTC on a 50BTC stash.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation