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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 6 (7.2%)
$120K - 14 (16.9%)
$130K - 11 (13.3%)
$140K - 9 (10.8%)
$150K - 14 (16.9%)
$160K - 1 (1.2%)
$170K+ - 28 (33.7%)
Total Voters: 83

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26792631 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
xhomerx10
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February 28, 2025, 03:16:57 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), PowerGlove (1)

 The bull is still here, he just has to turn Smiley

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February 28, 2025, 03:44:29 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Damn...

Still, this is the only way I can look at the price these days. Buddy breaks it to me gently.
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February 28, 2025, 04:01:14 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 28, 2025, 04:12:09 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


how to remove duplicates

I am not an expert in technicals but usually 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels indicate strong reversal after correction (which is natural in the markets).

edit: this is btc/usdt weekly chart
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February 28, 2025, 04:18:07 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)


how to remove duplicates

I am not an expert in technicals but usually 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels indicate strong reversal after correction (which is natural in the markets).

edit: this is btc/usdt weekly chart

At this stage it is not very relevant and there is obviously some kind of a lemming-like panic.
Who knows what caused it...maybe certain "meme" coin, perhaps.
That said, I see the same strange behavior in some stocks, especially small caps.
Some report OK or even good earnings and good prospects...and are being told to "die", essentially with 30-40% decreases.
The relative "calm" of the indexes is deceiving, imho.

BTW...I read some vibes about the singularity in 12 mo..who knows..maybe markets are trying to "price it in", lol.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a63922719/singularity-12-months/
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February 28, 2025, 04:19:53 AM

Michael Saylor just tweeted (or X’d?) that people should sell their kidney but not their Bitcoin. He either knows something that we don’t, or he’s dangerously close to beginning to get liquidation calls himself. I am personally not selling, but I sure hope this is only a temporary bump in the road. I want to see $200K!
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February 28, 2025, 04:23:20 AM
Last edit: February 28, 2025, 05:07:16 AM by Biodom

I don't wish him bad, but I always thought that bitcoin leverage is a bad idea, generally speaking.

EDIT: I hope that he does not sell his kidney...but who knows, maybe he will sell some of his AAPL, FB, AMZN, MSFT, perhaps.
How about it, MS?

EDIT2: Texas moves toward establishing a Bitcoin reserve (it is not strictly bitcoin, but a $500bil market cap requirement assures that only bitcoin qualifies, at least for now)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirnbaum/2025/02/27/texas-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-advances-amid-market-volatility/
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February 28, 2025, 04:24:23 AM

The first up move happened around Nov 4th (USA Election). Since X being the superhero when it comes to latest news and developments, I guess most new investors already got rekt. It is now only about perseverance and the will to be patient to see improvement. I wouldn't be talking too much if BTC hovered around 90k mark, but this is as biodom said some kind of panic wave.
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February 28, 2025, 05:01:12 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 28, 2025, 05:13:26 AM

CME gap at $75k.

$10k dump incoming?  Undecided

Looks like it will dump even more towards that gap.
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February 28, 2025, 05:20:12 AM

CME gap at $75k.

$10k dump incoming?  Undecided

Looks like it will dump even more towards that gap.

I had a dream last night, more like a nightmare  Huh it showed BTC around 50k range. Maybe I am overthinking. But today morning watching Indian markets (down ~ 1.24%) gave some strong indication of bears.
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February 28, 2025, 05:43:51 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)


how to remove duplicates

I am not an expert in technicals but usually 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels indicate strong reversal after correction (which is natural in the markets).

edit: this is btc/usdt weekly chart

At this stage it is not very relevant and there is obviously some kind of a lemming-like panic.
Who knows what caused it...maybe certain "meme" coin, perhaps.
That said, I see the same strange behavior in some stocks, especially small caps.
Some report OK or even good earnings and good prospects...and are being told to "die", essentially with 30-40% decreases.
The relative "calm" of the indexes is deceiving, imho.

BTW...I read some vibes about the singularity in 12 mo..who knows..maybe markets are trying to "price it in", lol.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a63922719/singularity-12-months/


I read something today which for the life of me I can’t find but if I do will edit it in.

The general theme was trump is crashing the market, he is making all his moves and feints pretty public and driving the fear factor. He is shaking retail out plus weaker hands. In a while M2 supply will be created(printer go brrr) and the rich/smart money will come in and scoop things up at ultra low pricing. We will find what was a feint and what was move way after the fact but the “fear” damage has already been done.

This was in the context of this strange behaviour in stock rather than Btc but definitely extensible somewhat I think. It’s a smart move, and if it turns out to be correct you just know he will claim credit for it going back up(cause the problem, celebrate fixing it)

Dang I wish I could find it they explained it way better than I tried. IMHO Saylor knows this, and it was what Elon was referring to when he said it’s gotta get worse to get better.
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February 28, 2025, 05:57:40 AM

Might just be me, but when BTC go through these dips its a lot less stressful than when btc is in price discovery in uppity. I try to measure my stack based on the 200 WMA and X% deviations, so it doesnt overly worry me when it dips, but the excitement of it going up I find quite stressful and feel the need to be like price watching all the time. When it dips I get to take a break and be like well when it returns to X level I will start watching it again.

I think maybe the cause for it, is that I stop measuring my stack by the 200WMA subconsciously in an uptrend and spot price becomes a stressor.

Its just something I recognized for the first time during this last month, and its not even the biggest dip/bounce I have been through but this behavioral pattern has been repeating since I got in.

Any words of wisdom from the OG's on how I should address this?

Personally I think that you are showing some maturity as an investor, and surely many of us find stress in either bitcoin price direction, even though surely we many of the longer term HODLers have already created various strategies to attempt to mitigate the stress, yet I doubt that we can get the stress to completely go away, even though when we are looking at valuation of our holdings in terms of the 200-WMA, we can also consider the extent to which we might want to try to be more aggressive (if we are capable of doing so) in our accumulation of BTC, to the extent that we are still accumulating BTC.  

i though that I recall that you are still expecting a year or two or maybe a bit more time for your ongoing BTC accumulation, assuming that maybe you will be accumulating BTC during our 2026 BTC price drops, to the extent that we might have price drops in 2026...and maybe by 2026, you might really start to feel that you have gotten towards a point of over-accumulation of BTC. .since we have the passage of both time and price, and if you have been fairly aggressively accumulating bitcoin for a whole cycle or a cycle and a half (which may be somewhat your situation), the you have pretty decent chances of becoming even less worried about accumulating more BTC by the time we get to 2027 or 2028.. . .but yeah, sure, you know your situation better than me, and of course, no matter how many of us are seeing BTC price waves and various  developments in BTC, we never are guaranteed that the ballpark of our expectations are going to end up playing out how we want them to play out, so we can ONLY do our  best to try to make sure that we stay alive and don't end up recking ourselves in the process of building and maintaining our BTC holdings, especially during our years of ongoing accumulation, even if they are seeming to be relatively small accumulations because we are continuing to accumulate even though our average cost per BTC remains much lower than the current price (even our current dippity price).

Of course anyone still accumulating BTC, even if he is getting to a point of having a lot, or enough, he still is likely going to feel some additional value to be able to be keeping on stacking BTC on dips, since BTC are about 20% or more discounted as compared to what they were a month ago, and yeah, perhaps you were going to be stacking sats anyway last month, but this month (at least for the moment) you are able to get some BTC for less expensive prices, even though you might also be running out of money, so you really might ONLY have your weekly DCA in terms of sometimes ONLY have so much extra money that you are able to use for buying our kinds of current dippenings.

Might just be me, but when BTC go through these dips its a lot less stressful than when btc is in price discovery in uppity.

For some reason, it is similar for me. It's not like I measure things using the 200WMA, though. When she goes down, I shrug it off and know she'll come around eventually, so I stop calling her lest she thinks I'm a needy whiner. When she goes up, I try to figure out if, when, how much to sell. That requires a lot of energy and makes me weary. However, until today I haven't actually sold anything because I'm used to live semi-frugally, or to be more precise well within my means. One egg in my ramen feels like it's just right if I don't end up indulging too often - certainly not every day. A hot dog, oh boy, that's reserved for Christmas.

I still like it a lot more when she goes up though. Go figure.

I hope you are getting close to 0.6303 or more of dee cornz, like some "arguably humble bumble" peeps that I know.

I have several times mentioned that I feel way much MOAR better with UPpity rather down, even though I think that I share an opinion with many others that here is no way that we really get away without experiencing a decent amount of ongoing and inevitable volatility, yet we can kind of structure our own financial and psychological set ups to attempt to mitigate as best as we can.

CME gap at $75k.

$10k dump incoming?  Undecided
hey relax and enjoy it like d_eddie, greyhats and myself  Grin

@greyhats.. same here. i dont really pay attention to dips,  even this one. and uppidy requires actual planning beyond ladders on exchanges.

Assuming that we have either reached a status of over accumulation or close to over accumulation, there seem to be ways that guys should be able to figure out in advance various price points in which we might shave off a wee bit of our cornz.. whether we are doing that on 20% price rises, 50% price rises 100% price rises or some other intervals.. and even if we might establish a somewhat solid plan for doing such, we should be able to figure out ways to live with consequences of our plans being reached or not reached, and if we are getting overly stressed that we did not sell enough or we sold too much, then we should also be capable of employing some tweaks to our system to help to make our lil selfies a wee bit more comfortable the next time around (in the event a next time around ends up presenting itself prior to our kicking the bucket or some other unfortunate life-event ends up happening to add some additional twist to our mix of material individualized considerations).

Is oversold in the room with us?

Surely (don't mean to call you shirley) I am getting some of those ole timey feelings of the good ole days (and not so good days) with seemingly never ending drops of dee cornz price, and the feeling of never knowing when it is going to begin to end or until it stops to continue with the downity.  Until it does end and stop continuing with downity... At some point, it just stops, without any real or meaningful sign that it is going to stop.

 Cry Cry Cry
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February 28, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 28, 2025, 06:35:54 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

That $7xxxx price is painful to observe...

Remember back in 2017 we started talking about scarcity... in a nutshell, the concept was "soonish BTC will become so rare and expensive to mine, mining rewards will drop with the halving etc". Today, 8 years later, we witness a roughly 25% drop and no signs of scarcity? So when will it kick in? Taking into account inflation, I'm "moar poorer" today than I was 4 years ago during the previous cycle's top... no eggs in my ramen today....

Anyway, enough whining, the blood is in the streets so, we're likely going to reverse soon...  Cool
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February 28, 2025, 06:39:42 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), modrobert (1)

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie
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February 28, 2025, 06:50:26 AM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

What was the bottom meant to be? $75k? Need to know when I should give up focusing on Bitcoin for another year or 2? lol

Support looks to be more around 70k to me

It's amazing honestly, no matter how mature the market gets, how many big institutional investors and corporations get involved, all of them panic sell like a bunch of noobs.
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February 28, 2025, 06:51:34 AM

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie

...correction...1.5 free ...for now.

Here is a little theory: since bull market was shorter and meeker than expected, bear market would also be shorter than expected.
"wham, bam, thank you ma'am".
WBTYM
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February 28, 2025, 07:01:14 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 28, 2025, 07:06:03 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie

...correction...1.5 free ...for now.

Here is a little theory: since bull market was shorter and meeker than expected, bear market would also be shorter than expected.
"wham, bam, thank you ma'am".
WBTYM


If that was the cycle top, it was lower than the last one, which probably means the next will be lower than this one. Therefore, next cycle target price would be about 130k maybe. That doesn't sound likely IMO so at this juncture I don't believe we have hit the cycle top yet. A shorter bear market could just mean this is a correction in the bull market.

Of course, I'm usually wrong so this is probably the start of an 80% correction and we'll be back in the $20ks by mid summer.
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