Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!

Well, I am still doubling my BTC holdings every day since December.  Beat that! 

That's impossible if you started out with any satoshis.  Even starting with 1 satoshi, after one month, you would have more than 1 BTC.  After 2 months, you would have more than 100million bitcoins, which is far more than the supply ever to be made, unless you were dealing with gox coins, which are magical.  The magic of compounding interest is truly amazing!!!! 

Thanks Jay, as soon as I saw that post I was gonna try to do the math to call him out on his absolute bullshit, but then I realized it wasn't worth my time.

also thanks for using NOT one annoying quirk in that entire post.

 

    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I can't find any new facts about China; only news, such as these:

International Business Times, 2014-05-13:
Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Planning to go Offshore to Escape PBOC Crackdown
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-planning-go-offshore-escape-pboc-crackdown-1448335
"Leon Li, founder and CEO of Huobi [said:] 'We don't want to touch the customers' money in China, because maybe [regulation] is going to get worse'"

Want China Times, 2014-05-10
Trading platforms struggle as more banks ban bitcoin in China
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140510000119&cid=1102&MainCatID=11
"'If China maintains tough regulatory policies, the price of bitcoin will definitely keep dropping, 'said Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi. [ ... ] Li Qiyuan, CEO of BTC China, said more exchanges may close down in the future."

Yet, looking at the charts, it seems that the Chinese traders are growing more confident, gradually.  It is the "plane didn't crash yet, perhaps there is no ground below" syndrome?

On the other hand, I understand that some customers of FXBTC are furious because the exchange shut down at 24:00 of May/09 instead of 00:00 of May/10, as they had announced:
http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/14/shutdown-of-chinas-fxbtc-exchange-leads-to-customer-outrage/
 

[jl2012]

I can't find any new facts about China; only news, such as these:

International Business Times, 2014-05-13:
Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Planning to go Offshore to Escape PBOC Crackdown
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-planning-go-offshore-escape-pboc-crackdown-1448335
"Leon Li, founder and CEO of Huobi [said:] 'We don't want to touch the customers' money in China, because maybe [regulation] is going to get worse'"

Want China Times, 2014-05-10
Trading platforms struggle as more banks ban bitcoin in China
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140510000119&cid=1102&MainCatID=11
"'If China maintains tough regulatory policies, the price of bitcoin will definitely keep dropping, 'said Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi. [ ... ] Li Qiyuan, CEO of BTC China, said more exchanges may close down in the future."

Yet, looking at the charts, it seems that the Chinese traders are growing more confident, gradually.  It is the "plane didn't crash yet, perhaps there is no ground below" syndrome?

On the other hand, I understand that some customers of FXBTC are furious because the exchange shut down at 24:00 of May/09 instead of 00:00 of May/10, as they had announced:
http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/14/shutdown-of-chinas-fxbtc-exchange-leads-to-customer-outrage/
 

isn't 24:00 of May/09 = 00:00 of May/10?

[JorgeStolfi]

isn't 24:00 of May/09 = 00:00 of May/10?

That is the point... 

To be fair, I don't know whether FXBTC's deadline was announced as "May/10 00:00" or "May/10 24:00" or "May/10 midnight" or something else.  However, the "five exchanges agreement" has "May/10 00:00" for other deadlines, so, well, ...

[YipYip]

isn't 24:00 of May/09 = 00:00 of May/10?

That is the point... 

To be fair, I don't know whether FXBTC's deadline was announced as "May/10 00:00" or "May/10 24:00" or "May/10 midnight" or something else.  However, the "five exchanges agreement" has "May/10 00:00" for other deadlines, so, well, ...

So what is their point ..."Just one more trade" when they anounce ~7 days previously to shut down  & to remove your money

Furious as to their own stupidity

Also me thinks the FACIST regime that is china would love to make BIG dramas out of Bitcoin ripping customers off

 

[y3804]

I can't find any new facts about China; only news, such as these:

International Business Times, 2014-05-13:
Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges Planning to go Offshore to Escape PBOC Crackdown
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-planning-go-offshore-escape-pboc-crackdown-1448335
"Leon Li, founder and CEO of Huobi [said:] 'We don't want to touch the customers' money in China, because maybe [regulation] is going to get worse'"

Want China Times, 2014-05-10
Trading platforms struggle as more banks ban bitcoin in China
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140510000119&cid=1102&MainCatID=11
"'If China maintains tough regulatory policies, the price of bitcoin will definitely keep dropping, 'said Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi. [ ... ] Li Qiyuan, CEO of BTC China, said more exchanges may close down in the future."

Yet, looking at the charts, it seems that the Chinese traders are growing more confident, gradually.  It is the "plane didn't crash yet, perhaps there is no ground below" syndrome?

On the other hand, I understand that some customers of FXBTC are furious because the exchange shut down at 24:00 of May/09 instead of 00:00 of May/10, as they had announced:
http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/14/shutdown-of-chinas-fxbtc-exchange-leads-to-customer-outrage/
 

You won't find news by looking at press. Usually far too late. Weibo/blogs/forums are by far the best options. If you want updated news about China (up to the hour), just check r/BitcoinMarkets, I usually post there quite often

Nothing has happened today on China's side unfortunately

[ChrisML]

KNOCK KNOCK $450,- 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mladen00]

450$ wall..... big like China Great Wall

[rpietila]

So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?

Hmm, 300-350 rpietila says, in 7 days he says. Lets see.  

he says a 7% chance.

you feeling lucky?

I said that historically, the clause "we will go down at least 21.3% in the next 7 days, compared to today" has been true about 7% of times.

Because I had a hunch that it would have an increased probability of being true next week, I offered double the odds. In other words, even if you think the P is = historical average, you would have had +100% EV.

[TERA]

How long has the total ask side on Stamp remained around 21,000 btc? Seems like at least 6 months, probably longer. Any theories as to why?

Has been bigger 25-28k btc even in the last couple weeks. Why what? Same ask volume or 21k btc?

Imho, some of these ask are old, wishful thinking asks for couple thousand $ per btc "just in case".

The dynamic of trading on bitstamp now is much different than it was on Mtgox due to:
1. Lack of trust in keeping funds on exchanges
2. Bitfinex
3. Dark orders (most of the serious accumulation and distribution utilize these. for example the seller(s) who is actually driving the trendline - you never see any of his orders on the book, and people get falsely excited every time 'the asks are gone')
4. China being the market leader still
5. Advancements in bot strategies, and more sophisticated traders

So the asks represent a relatively constant group of traders and bots who still use the old strategy of keeping their coins on the books. It oscillates between 16K and 24K depending on where we are in the trend and whether these traders are long or short.

[blatchcorn]

>$500 is possible today

[mah87]

>$500 is possible today

low volume, probably not.

[Hunyadi]

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

While a retest of 339.79 is certainly possible, there is one key difference here namely the multiple tests of 380 - 400 in this bear market. This parallel did not occur in 2011. So it is quite possible that 1) We see yet another test of 380 - 400 before an upward breakout or 2) we just see an upward breakout. This bear is starting to look very tried to me. By the way the fall of 2011 is when I started buying Bitcoin so the charts are good for nostalgia. I say hold / long term buy.

Edit: As for China, this is starting to look like the little boy who cried wolf, with the wolf replaced by a bit bull. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmxKWEqBN-8

+1

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/14/shutdown-of-chinas-fxbtc-exchange-leads-to-customer-outrage/
 

Outrage lol. The article says there is believed to be about $8000-$13000 worth of BTC on the site, so like 25 coins? Hardly an outrage by many people is it...

[Hunyadi]

http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/14/shutdown-of-chinas-fxbtc-exchange-leads-to-customer-outrage/
 

Outrage lol. The article says there is believed to be about $8000-$13000 worth of BTC on the site, so like 25 coins? Hardly an outrage by many people is it...

 

[windjc]

>$500 is possible today

Yep. So is <$400.

Probably stay in the same tight range between 430-460 though.

[TERA]

Does this mean anything?