Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned

Predicting that a short term dip will occur but then rebound all the way back up and then reach new highs is 'the end of the world'. #bitcointhings

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

And you just realized that ?

I've never been called 'permabear' before. That is supposed to be people who don't think that btc will ever rise again and is a bad long term investment. People like Fonzie.

[oda.krell]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.

...

I'm talking about the volume.

Me too.

Which of those two look more like  "Volume is slowly picking up again a month after the bottom" to you?






Possibly the 'reversal' is more stretched out this time, because the entire correction was more stretched out, so I'm not taking the above as proof that we must go down again. I'm just pointing out that, so far, they look pretty dissimilar to me.

You need to look at Gox which was the biggest exchange in 2013.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

No, I don't. By July / August, gox was in hot water already, and it reflected in volume. More specifically, April 2013 was gox volume in full glory, by the middle of the year they had already taken a hit. I guess to do this the right way, we'd have to sum over gox, stamp, btce and btcchina, but I can't bring myself to do it for such little gain.

[p0peji]

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned

Predicting that a short term dip will occur but then rebound all the way back up and then reach new highs is 'the end of the world'. #bitcointhings

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

And you just realized that ?

I've never been called 'permabear' before. That is supposed to be people who don't think that btc will ever rise again and is a bad long term investment. People like Fonzie.

The problem here is that you are talking to bitcoiners, who I start to believe are the same people who would think that MLM is the next best thing and is going to make them rich.

[edwardspitz]

I am by no means an expert in chart analysis or indicators. But when I look at the 3d chart and the RSI indicator all I see is the fractal repeating itself one more time:



I find this chart particular interesting because there are other indicators the could point to trend reversal (such as the way we have been right at the top of the descending channel and possibly even broken out a few times).

Looking across the 3 sections where we have been overbought you notice that the volume has increased every time. It don't think this means anything...  It is just because Kraken has gotten more customers (which of course is a good thing )  If you think my interpretation is wrong then please enlighten me.

[wachtwoord]

Attention: I have just been dubbed with the honorary title of the greatest most bearish type of bear there is: a permabear. This came after projecting a flat short term market and 'only' a 500% per year exponential growth trend.

No it was based on all your other posts. This post was actually bullish. That is what made me take note. Someone, who thus far was predicting the end of the world as we know it, switching to an (exponential) uptrend. I thought that was worthy to be mentioned

Predicting that a short term dip will occur but then rebound all the way back up and then reach new highs is 'the end of the world'. #bitcointhings

If the above is your opinion I retract my post. I certainly haven't read all your post but always got the impression you were just outright negative concerning the future (short term or long) of Bitcoin. (The fact that I didn't like the vast majority of your arguments can't have helped either). Therefore your username was labeled permabear in my head for quite a while.

[Kupsi]

^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.

In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Kupsi]

You need to look at Gox which was the biggest exchange in 2013.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

No, I don't. By July / August, gox was in hot water already, and it reflected in volume. More specifically, April 2013 was gox volume in full glory, by the middle of the year they had already taken a hit. I guess to do this the right way, we'd have to sum over gox, stamp, btce and btcchina, but I can't bring myself to do it for such little gain.

I agree. But Gox was still bigger than Stamp, BTC-e and BTC China combined, so Gox is most important.

[Arghhh]

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that you're fucking wrong for the 10th time.
Remember your case-in-point during October?

Anyone who thinks bitcoin is staying 500 for a year is delusional. You're not fooling anyone.

Yes I could be wrong. My type of assertion is 'I wouldn't be suprised' and you don't see me placing any bets do you. And why do you think I'm trying to 'fool' someone? What motive could I possibly have for claiming the market will be flat?

You drew a flat line back in October 2013, and you drew a flat line now, have you ever asked yourself that in order for your prediction to be so dead wrong back then, that there must be some personal bias, or fundamentals that you've yet to grasp?

Here's a question: what makes you think prices will flatline around 500, with the huge out turn of adoption news capped off by a possible exchange or two opening in the US?

[TERA]

^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.

In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now.

I am referring to the first spike down that occured AFTER the reversal

2013:  66 ->105 -> THE SPIKE=80  ->100 ->100->100->100->100   consolidating at high of spike
2014:  340->540-> THE SPIKE=420 ->440->440->440->440->440   consolidating at low of spike

[TERA]

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that you're fucking wrong for the 10th time.
Remember your case-in-point during October?

Anyone who thinks bitcoin is staying 500 for a year is delusional. You're not fooling anyone.

Yes I could be wrong. My type of assertion is 'I wouldn't be suprised' and you don't see me placing any bets do you. And why do you think I'm trying to 'fool' someone? What motive could I possibly have for claiming the market will be flat?

You drew a flat line back in October 2013, and you drew a flat line now, have you ever asked yourself that in order for your prediction to be so dead wrong back then, that there must be some personal bias, or fundamentals that you've yet to grasp?

Here's a question: what makes you think prices will flatline around 500, with the huge out turn of adoption news capped off by a possible exchange or two opening in the US?

I'm thinking of a slow transfer of wealth between China and government/hacker/gox coins to the new adopters in the west. There are a ton of huge blocks of coins floating around in the market that have been unaccounted for and alot of it probably needs to be sold. However, it is apparent now that they are in no rush to 'dump' and cause a price drop. So it'll be a slow grind as all the coins are bought out at current rates.

^That's my funadmental-based in speculations.  In charting terms, I see a lot of negative indicators on the weekly chart. We are about to go below the weekly ichimoku cloud even. However, the fundamentals of bitcoin are bullish. So the bullish investors counteracting against the bearish chart = flat.

In 2013 I didn't know what I was doing. There weren't even any negative indicators on the chart then. It was completely bullish, and I was just drawing random lines.

[Kupsi]

^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.

In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now.

I am referring to the first spike down that occured AFTER the reversal

2013:  66 ->105 -> THE SPIKE=80  ->100 ->100->100->100->100   consolidating at high of spike
2014:  340->540-> THE SPIKE=420 ->440->440->440->440->440   consolidating at low of spike

OK. I understand you. But the spike to 80 didn't rebound to 100 immediately.

[TERA]

^^^ notice the difference between the two charts: In 2013 there was a spike down from 100 to 80 after the bottom but it immediately rebounded back up and spent all of the consolidation time near the high of 100 rather than near 80. In 2014 there is a spike down from 540 to 420 but there was no rebound and it is spending all of its consolidation time near 420 and nowhere close to 540.

In 2014 the spike down was from 440 to 340. It rebounded and the consolidation is here now.

I am referring to the first spike down that occured AFTER the reversal

2013:  66 ->105 -> THE SPIKE=80  ->100 ->100->100->100->100   consolidating at high of spike
2014:  340->540-> THE SPIKE=420 ->440->440->440->440->440   consolidating at low of spike

OK. I understand you. But the spike to 80 didn't rebound to 100 immediately.

It rose steady in a diagonal line for 2 weeks .

[Blue]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Yeah why is that, fonzie and igoor and mah37 are all such rational posters.

yeah right.

I want fonzie back ! Now !!

[dreamspark]

I am by no means an expert in chart analysis or indicators. But when I look at the 3d chart and the RSI indicator all I see is the fractal repeating itself one more time:



I find this chart particular interesting because there are other indicators the could point to trend reversal (such as the way we have been right at the top of the descending channel and possibly even broken out a few times).

Looking across the 3 sections where we have been overbought you notice that the volume has increased every time. It don't think this means anything...  It is just because Kraken has gotten more customers (which of course is a good thing )  If you think my interpretation is wrong then please enlighten me.

I think that if you want to do long term analysis thats fair over a period of time you should use an exchange that gets more than a peak of 5700BTC on the 3d chart.

Not saying your observations aren't legit just that volume can tell you a lot and kraken doesn't have much.

[Kupsi]

Someone want to buy @ Stamp  

Edit: It was a 1400 buy wall at 445, but it was removed and divided into smaller bids.

[TERA]

I hate huobi. Why is it on the order book I can see 200CNY of the ask side but only 30 CNY of the bid side.

[macsga]

PREPARE TEH TRAINZ!!!1



CH00CH00!!!1

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]