Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

Didn't see that coming  

Apparently you don't see much coming, based on your bearish outlook.

That remains to be seen 

Yes, it does. Out of interest, what price are you waiting for?  $350 $300 $275 $200?

For the next leg down, *if* it happens, I would guess that would be around the mid 200's within the next 2-3 months tops

[1715575379]

1715575379

[1715575379]

1715575379

[cryyptc]

Do something, gentlemen, before We're forced to shake the box





  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

[jonoiv]

Didn't see that coming  

Apparently you don't see much coming, based on your bearish outlook.

That remains to be seen 

Yes, it does. Out of interest, what price are you waiting for?  $350 $300 $275 $200?

For the next leg down, *if* it happens, I would guess that would be around the mid 200's within the next 2-3 months tops

And if you are wrong, what price will you say, it's bullish.  Say we never go below $350 again and subsequently we hit $500 before Christmas, will you decide it's bullish medium and long term?

[YogoH]

uh, why is ripple pumping?  They are experiencing a devastating ledger fork and may have to change consensus systems.  These markets continue to amaze me. Bizzaro world

[podyx]

uh, why is ripple pumping?  They are experiencing a devastating ledger fork and may have to change consensus systems.  These markets continue to amaze me. Bizzaro world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNj8mJq65i4

[phoenix1]

<snip>

And if you are wrong, what price will you say, it's bullish.  Say we never go below $350 again and subsequently we hit $500 before Christmas, will you decide it's bullish medium and long term?

That depends upon the price action ... I am not a stubborn permabear, I just don't suffer from FOMO
And 'never ' is not a term that should be used to talk about prices IMO

[JorgeStolfi]

Alternatively, [ Tim ] might think Bitcoin is well worth above $375, but knows that he a chance to gather a much bigger position if he doesn't buy it on-exchange, because off-exchange prices seem to (largely) follow the on-exchange price as "the market price", while there is no public price finding mechanism for off-exchange transactions (excluding localbitcoin).

But if he thought that bitcoin was worth 390$, and bid for 390$, why would he not also buy on the exchanges, after the bids closed, until the price rose to 390$?

Suppose that, as you suggest, he refrained from buying those 375$ coins at the exchanges because he wanted bitcoin to remain underpriced and thus discourage other bidders.  If that is what he thought, he should have bid at some price between 375$ and 390$, probably closer to the latter.  But them after the auction closed, why didn't he rush to buy those underpriced coins?  If he thought that buying 2000 BTC at 390$ was a good deal, why would he not buy 1000 more at 375$?

Perhaps he was not a rational player, or was lazy, or became more pessimistic betwen 12-04 and 12-05, or had some other reasons; but what about all the other whales, including those who did not enter the auction?  On 12-05, obviously none of them thought that BTC was worth more than 376$.  

So, Tim may have bid for more than 375$.  But it is also quite possible that all the bidders (including Tim) acted rationally, and all of them bid below 375$.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MoreFun]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[LFC_Bitcoin]

uh, why is ripple pumping?  They are experiencing a devastating ledger fork and may have to change consensus systems.  These markets continue to amaze me. Bizzaro world

Ripple is a scam

[macsga]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

[samsonn25]

When btc hit peak in Dec 2013 the transactions were around 30k, bow is much higher, more than 80k but the price is 1/3

This is probably due to more miners, and the selling to finance capital costs, and also more adoption of the currency

[JorgeStolfi]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Indeed, everything is just fine.  The blockchain transaction volume in USD (minus changebacks) has peaked over the last month, and is almost back to the June 15 level:
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0

Like the traffic on the "BipPay.com wallet", whose plots I posted recently, this chart does not support the claim that use of bitcoin for payments is increasing.  That use may be increasing, but most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions, so we would not be able to see the increase anyway.

Moreover the current level of blockchain traffic is very easy to fake, and there are many people out there who would be motivated to fake it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[WeltMaster]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

[smoothie]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

With all of the mining ROI going away I can see money pouring into the price from people who do the math and realize mining with current hardware + electricity costs (not free) is likely not worth their time.

Better off buying bitcoin directly.

And the cycle continues.....once again.

[sherbyspark]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

With all of the mining ROI going away I can see money pouring into the price from people who do the math and realize mining with current hardware + electricity costs (not free) is likely not worth their time.

Better off buying bitcoin directly.

And the cycle continues.....once again.

Mining ROI is still good enough in other countries whre the electricity costs are next to nothing.

[Fatman3001]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

Spam-bitcoins filling up peoples wallets. The most unprofitable scam ever.

[fonsie]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

Didn't you know, you can also send "love" and "wishes" now using bitcoin.

PS: Don't listen too much to that Brazilian whack job called JorgeStolfi, he's one of the most boring trolls ever. Every one of his posts read like a bedtime story.

[Fatman3001]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

With all of the mining ROI going away I can see money pouring into the price from people who do the math and realize mining with current hardware + electricity costs (not free) is likely not worth their time.

Better off buying bitcoin directly.

And the cycle continues.....once again.

Mining ROI is still good enough in other countries whre the electricity costs are next to nothing.

Now that mining difficulty has flatlined more miners are obviously keeping some coins rather than buying new HW, thus we might have less supply of coins for a while.