[Closed]Avalon Chips - 0.081 BTC (Global+Escrow)-BATCH2 SECURED

[t13hydra]

I am with marto on this one:
I want my chips sent to my assembler.
I do not want a refund.

can you explain why?

do you have a method and you will see ROI ?

do you know something that we do not know?

- or is more like curiosity... to see the PCB populated and up and running knowing that you will NEVER get your invested money back... and talking about profit is useless

Yep
1. I don't need them to ROI, i have payed with bitcoins mined from my farm witch have ROI-d itself long time ago. So this is reinvestemnt for me.
2. I don't pay for electricity
3. They will ROI. It will take 4 months for that according to my calculations.

I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.

[inspireweb.ro]

 + the overclock , the ROI is less than 3 months for one full asic.

[t13hydra]

+ the overclock , the ROI is less than 3 months for one full asic.

Yes. Have a little patience, that's all. I know it's mind bugging to wait, it's awfully stressful even to order parts and find out that everything takes weeeeeks and weeks.. Fortunatley i've started ordering a good while ago, so i don't run into problems with ASIC chips waiting in a box.  Also, the stress of every day take a toll on the most important part of these GBs, the communication, but i'll try to update you guys now and then.

[Henchman24]

I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.

Difficulty goes to 86+ million in a little over a day.  Also, didn't you previously say you were waiting on chips just to finish development?  Or are the boards ready to pop chips onto them?

I wish I shared your optimism.  Perhaps you'd like to buy me out?

[t13hydra]

I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.

Difficulty goes to 86+ million in a little over a day.  Also, didn't you previously say you were waiting on chips just to finish development?  Or are the boards ready to pop chips onto them?

I wish I shared your optimism.  Perhaps you'd like to buy me out?

The calculations in the above post were estimated using a difficulty of 85M. If that still holds a ROI of 3 months, i don't see the point of being nervous....

[Henchman24]

I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.

Difficulty goes to 86+ million in a little over a day.  Also, didn't you previously say you were waiting on chips just to finish development?  Or are the boards ready to pop chips onto them?

I wish I shared your optimism.  Perhaps you'd like to buy me out?

The calculations in the above post were estimated using a difficulty of 85M. If that still holds a ROI of 3 months, i don't see the point of being nervous....

Are you saying you expect to ship miners before the next (post ~85M) difficulty jump?  nvm I get what you're saying.  I don't necessarily agree though, since the time to positive ROI is not going to grow linearly.

Sorry, I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand.  The reason for any perceived "panic" or "nervousness" on my part is because the window for obtaining a refund ends on Wednesday, I believe.  It sounds like you've already made the call to see this through though.  So, I guess I'll just buckle up.

*Edit:  My offer to be bought out still stands.  How can you pass up a sweet opportunity like that?  Don't be nervous...   

[Henchman24]

Is this purchase gonna be affected with all these avalon problems?  We need your guidance Steve!

Hi there,
Problem is that if i don't have chips i cannot go on with the work. So, somewhat yes, the deliveries are going to be affected. But not to worry, everybody will be served.

This is the comment to which I was referring a few posts above.  Could you please expand on this?  Do you have an estimate for how long the work is going take after you receive the chips?

[OracionSeis]

Is this purchase gonna be affected with all these avalon problems?  We need your guidance Steve!

Hi there,
Problem is that if i don't have chips i cannot go on with the work. So, somewhat yes, the deliveries are going to be affected. But not to worry, everybody will be served.

This is the comment to which I was referring a few posts above.  Could you please expand on this?  Do you have an estimate for how long the work is going take after you receive the chips?

I am guessing that 1 week to assebmle all miners which has been ordered and 1 week to test them! equals total 2 WEEK on my mind.

[Henchman24]

Is this purchase gonna be affected with all these avalon problems?  We need your guidance Steve!

Hi there,
Problem is that if i don't have chips i cannot go on with the work. So, somewhat yes, the deliveries are going to be affected. But not to worry, everybody will be served.

This is the comment to which I was referring a few posts above.  Could you please expand on this?  Do you have an estimate for how long the work is going take after you receive the chips?

I am guessing that 1 week to assebmle all miners which has been ordered and 1 week to test them! equals total 2 WEEK on my mind.

Fantastic, if that turns out to be the case.  I was under the impression there was actual development/debugging left to do.

[OracionSeis]

Is this purchase gonna be affected with all these avalon problems?  We need your guidance Steve!

Hi there,
Problem is that if i don't have chips i cannot go on with the work. So, somewhat yes, the deliveries are going to be affected. But not to worry, everybody will be served.

This is the comment to which I was referring a few posts above.  Could you please expand on this?  Do you have an estimate for how long the work is going take after you receive the chips?

I am guessing that 1 week to assebmle all miners which has been ordered and 1 week to test them! equals total 2 WEEK on my mind.

Fantastic, if that turns out to be the case.  I was under the impression there was actual development/debugging left to do.

We have been said that the chips will be delivered september but we are at the beginning of September atleast avalon should have said something.

[Henchman24]

We have been said that the chips will be delivered september but we are at the beginning of September atleast avalon should have said something.

Avalon has said plenty.  You should read up a bit.  Here's one place to start.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177827.msg3035535#msg3035535

[alchimista]

+ the overclock , the ROI is less than 3 months for one full asic.

I didn't lurk perfectly, but i didn't find any demonstrations of working overclocked k16s, nor valid estimates.
Also, could you give more information about your roi calculations?

a) what's your estimate for difficulty increase per month? are you calculating in MM or %?
b) how much power drawing are you estimating? and for overclocking?
c) how much does the power cost to you? for me is around .2/.25
d) how much hashpower do you plan?
e) are you calculating shipping and delays? There are orders from late april still to ship. Also, the biggest part of orders is earlier than ours.

1. I don't need them to ROI, i have payed with bitcoins mined from my farm witch have ROI-d itself long time ago. So this is reinvestemnt for me.
2. I don't pay for electricity
3. They will ROI. It will take 4 months for that according to my calculations.

All this points are really good. Especially 1 and 2:
1. You are getting back less than you had before, so, you're happily losing money.
2. You are either stealing energy or producing solar energy. But winter's coming / fotovoltaic is not for everybody. And stealing is forbidden.


Sad to say, but i must accept the most of you pay energy at better prices than me, and the most don't want to lose the money of the pcb order.
So i will follow la volontè generale, no problem with that.

But, i was thinking, many seem to be planning ROI in 3 months.
So: why nobodys buying my chips at 0.07? I will go back to 0.081 right now, with an estimate like that.

[OracionSeis]

We have been said that the chips will be delivered september but we are at the beginning of September atleast avalon should have said something.

Avalon has said plenty.  You should read up a bit.  Here's one place to start.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177827.msg3035535#msg3035535

Thanks alot sir i have been looking for this thread! btw what is that avalon?Who runs this company? Zefir is a employee or ceo or something else?

[Henchman24]

We have been said that the chips will be delivered september but we are at the beginning of September atleast avalon should have said something.

Avalon has said plenty.  You should read up a bit.  Here's one place to start.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177827.msg3035535#msg3035535

Thanks alot sir i have been looking for this thread! btw what is that avalon?Who runs this company? Zefir is a employee or ceo or something else?

Zefir is another group buy organizer.  Bitsyncom is Yifu is Avalon.

[OracionSeis]

We have been said that the chips will be delivered september but we are at the beginning of September atleast avalon should have said something.

Avalon has said plenty.  You should read up a bit.  Here's one place to start.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177827.msg3035535#msg3035535

Thanks alot sir i have been looking for this thread! btw what is that avalon?Who runs this company? Zefir is a employee or ceo or something else?

Zefir is another group buy organizer.  Bitsyncom is Yifu is Avalon.

Thanks you sir!

[hacko.bg]

Even if I'm 60% for getting chips and 40% for refunds, there are plenty of things that you can't foresee in this equation. I've calculated the growth of difficulty by 20% and this successfully worked till about 50 millions, when was the time we were supposed to receive our chips. Now we are witnessing jumps by 50% and the more the asic competition develops their products the higher this step will be. Now imagine 50% jump at a difficulty of 200 mils, what I think it will be by the time we receive this chips - again - if Yifu manages to send out as he promised. If he fails, as all the evidence so far are pointing to this direction, and we manage to get our chips in the middle or end of October it will be best just to throw the chips away.

I wouldn't bet my head over 3 months ROI or 6 months ROI or whatever, if those chips are not mining in the last days of September. Even then it might be late.

Bottom line is this chip pre-order was a big risk in the begging. Now the risk increased dramatically.

I haven't decided what to do yet myself. The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.

I am with marto on this one:
I want my chips sent to my assembler.
I do not want a refund.

can you explain why?

do you have a method and you will see ROI ?

do you know something that we do not know?

- or is more like curiosity... to see the PCB populated and up and running knowing that you will NEVER get your invested money back... and talking about profit is useless

Yep
1. I don't need them to ROI, i have payed with bitcoins mined from my farm witch have ROI-d itself long time ago. So this is reinvestemnt for me.
2. I don't pay for electricity
3. They will ROI. It will take 4 months for that according to my calculations.

I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.

[patica]

The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.

I agree completely with hacko.bg - vote is the best that we can do.

[Henchman24]

The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.

I agree completely with hacko.bg - vote is the best that we can do.

It doesn't look like we're going to get that chance.  As I said before, the refund window is only open for another day or so and Steve doesn't appear to be interested.

[mike2kt]

The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.

I agree completely with hacko.bg - vote is the best that we can do.

I agree also.

[patica]

The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.

I agree completely with hacko.bg - vote is the best that we can do.

It doesn't look like we're going to get that chance.  As I said before, the refund window is only open for another day or so and Steve doesn't appear to be interested.

Where did you read this?