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Author Topic: [Announcement] Block Erupter USB  (Read 245332 times)
GuiltySpark343
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June 02, 2013, 11:32:22 PM
 #801

I ran some numbers assuming difficulty increases by 10% every 2 weeks, which roughly translates into profit declines by 10% every 2 weeks.

Given these parameters (and not counting USB hub, fans, electricity), if you bought a USB Erupter for 1.99 BTC and started mining right at the start of the last difficulty increase, in about 1 year of constant mining that miner would have made 1.807 BTC (ie. you would still be behind by 0.183 BTC).

End of week #   Daily BTC   2 week total   Running Total
2   0.0138   0.1932   0.1932
4   0.0124   0.1739   0.3671
6   0.0112   0.1565   0.5236
8   0.0101   0.1408   0.6644
10   0.0091   0.1268   0.7912
12   0.0081   0.1141   0.9053
14   0.0073   0.1027   1.0079
16   0.0066   0.0924   1.1003
18   0.0059   0.0832   1.1835
20   0.0053   0.0748   1.2584
22   0.0048   0.0674   1.3257
24   0.0043   0.0606   1.3863
26   0.0039   0.0546   1.4409
28   0.0035   0.0491   1.4900
30   0.0032   0.0442   1.5342
32   0.0028   0.0398   1.5740
34   0.0026   0.0358   1.6098
36   0.0023   0.0322   1.6420
38   0.0021   0.0290   1.6710
40   0.0019   0.0261   1.6971
42   0.0017   0.0235   1.7206
44   0.0015   0.0211   1.7417
46   0.0014   0.0190   1.7608
48   0.0012   0.0171   1.7779
50   0.0011   0.0154   1.7933
52   0.0010   0.0139   1.8072

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muyuu
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June 03, 2013, 12:32:19 AM
 #802

I ran some numbers assuming difficulty increases by 10% every 2 weeks, which roughly translates into profit declines by 10% every 2 weeks.

Given these parameters (and not counting USB hub, fans, electricity), if you bought a USB Erupter for 1.99 BTC and started mining right at the start of the last difficulty increase, in about 1 year of constant mining that miner would have made 1.807 BTC (ie. you would still be behind by 0.183 BTC).

Amortisation in even 2 years is still good enough. You could have continued the loop to see when did it hit break-even Tongue if ever.

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June 03, 2013, 12:44:22 AM
 #803


So lets forecast from there shall we! Starting @ 0.0104 BTC and $1.27 profit a day for the first 10 days. 1 month profit $38.  3 month profit $90. 1 year profit $155!

M

And $155 * 45 devices = $6975 presuming the price of bitcion doesn't go up.. (why wouldn't it?) what if it rises to ~250/coin stabily? then his profit margin is that much higher.

Or we can even use some psuedo-math and presume that it will generate about 79 cents/hour 24/7/365 at the current price and assuming your difficulty increases.

Takes money to make money.
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June 03, 2013, 12:44:43 AM
 #804

I ran some numbers assuming difficulty increases by 10% every 2 weeks, which roughly translates into profit declines by 10% every 2 weeks.

Given these parameters (and not counting USB hub, fans, electricity), if you bought a USB Erupter for 1.99 BTC and started mining right at the start of the last difficulty increase, in about 1 year of constant mining that miner would have made 1.807 BTC (ie. you would still be behind by 0.183 BTC).

Amortisation in even 2 years is still good enough. You could have continued the loop to see when did it hit break-even Tongue if ever.
Question, did the ROI predictions come true when BTC went from CPU to GPU?  Were those questions asked back then?  I feel many ASICs sold will never be put to use, many will be constantly sold over and over again.

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June 03, 2013, 12:48:39 AM
 #805

I ran some numbers assuming difficulty increases by 10% every 2 weeks, which roughly translates into profit declines by 10% every 2 weeks.

Given these parameters (and not counting USB hub, fans, electricity), if you bought a USB Erupter for 1.99 BTC and started mining right at the start of the last difficulty increase, in about 1 year of constant mining that miner would have made 1.807 BTC (ie. you would still be behind by 0.183 BTC).

Amortisation in even 2 years is still good enough. You could have continued the loop to see when did it hit break-even Tongue if ever.

the problem is that if it pays off in 1year, during the next entire year it may only pay an additional ~0.6BTC. The next year you would probably make next to nothing.

further, the actual hardware cost of these is much less than 2btc. 1BTC is a more fair price to invest at IMO

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461 also selling 6" M-F-M PCIe splitters and PCIe-PCIe
No longer a wannabe - now an ASIC owner!
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June 03, 2013, 01:19:48 AM
 #806

Thanks, friedcat !



That's fucking gorgeous.

That's what we all should have in our rooms if AM decided to not rape people with price but to give something to the network too.


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Cranky4u
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June 03, 2013, 05:30:54 AM
 #807

For those living under a rock...are erupters still available?

Kinetic915
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June 03, 2013, 05:47:17 AM
 #808

Thanks, friedcat !



That's fucking gorgeous.

That's what we all should have in our rooms if AM decided to not rape people with price but to give something to the network too.

dropped around 11 grand there? whew....

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June 03, 2013, 08:05:08 AM
 #809

These are some damn sexy pieces of hardware. In an attempt to end preorder nightmares, I took it upon myself to order an entire batch from friedcat up front with 100% my own funds, and I'm selling them all in the US. If you order from me (see my signature), you can expect same-day shipment if ordered before noon. I even try my best to entertain color requests!! I must say I was very impressed with the hardware itself though - it feels like it was designed by Apple - brushed aluminum heatsink, arrives in a custom designed plastic case with foam insulation ensuring safe delivery.

I gotta be honest, I'm having a really hard time selling these things - I truly feel like they will be collectors items some day. My wife said I can keep one of each color so perhaps that's good enough ... for now.

Anyway, if you are in the US and have an itch for one, I guarantee you that you're gonna love it and if you go to the link in my sig, you will find no other way to get one quicker at a reasonable price! Group buys take a while (my brother is STILL waiting for his that he ordered a couple weeks ago)!

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June 03, 2013, 03:11:01 PM
 #810


So lets forecast from there shall we! Starting @ 0.0104 BTC and $1.27 profit a day for the first 10 days. 1 month profit $38.  3 month profit $90. 1 year profit $155!

M

And $155 * 45 devices = $6975 presuming the price of bitcion doesn't go up.. (why wouldn't it?) what if it rises to ~250/coin stabily? then his profit margin is that much higher.

Takes money to make money.

No gaurentee bitcoin will rise at all in the next 2-3 years. It's a risky business model that relies on increasing prices it can't control to make an investment work. It's a bit like starting a prefab roof construction company that will only make money if house prices and thus the component cost of building houses doubles in the next few years. All forcasting i see only ever accounts for prices rises within RPI or CPI inflation (which is fiddled down).

My company would fund several new dopots to open today if it could gaurentee selling prices of goods bought today would double in price over the next few years!

Like i said I have my risk based on a BFL product to hopefully be delivered this side of Xmas but I factored in a X 10 increase of difficulty (8m to 80m) from the date of order before I commited cash and it still had an ROI good enough in under 5 months @ 30% increase a month.

For sure with human nature this ASIC thing will grow and grow exponetially, as will the difficulty until the BTC earned is less than a $0.01 /kwh and anyone who pays for electricity (this includes all the current big players) are forced to stop mining.

Will be interesting to see at that point if the price rises to respond or if network hashrate just comes offline until the difficulty drops but the transition between these two will mean transactions will crawl along.

This is already happening with Litecoin where low effeiciency GPUs are no longer making money vs power and high efficiency ones like the 7950 are now making less profit that BTC direct but this price is not rising to compensate. I expect a huge drop off of LTC hashing in the next few months unless the price $ rises a lot.

M   


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June 03, 2013, 03:21:54 PM
 #811

Difficulty to BTC-Price comparison: http://www.bitcoinx.com/charts/

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June 03, 2013, 04:30:26 PM
 #812

will get one soon, need to get some food!

 edit: I guess a photo only takes a min -

I know have 7 hubs up and running Smiley that is 66 erupters Smiley I would have another hub hooked up but it appears the power source does not work!!!! bad anker(came direct)  Angry Angry Angry
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June 03, 2013, 04:49:57 PM
 #813

make that 77 erupters via 8 USB ubs Smiley
LazyOtto
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June 03, 2013, 07:35:35 PM
 #814

make that 77 erupters via 8 USB ubs Smiley
What is the range of hw errors as a percent of accepted shares that you're getting, please?

On my working one it is running at about 0.9%. (IIRC, several other folks have reported getting about a 1% hw error rate.)

One which is now dead and in the process of getting replaced ran at about 10% hw errors for roughly eight hours. Then it died.

-- edit

NOTE: I had a fan blowing over them. They were both 'warm to the touch'. Not the 'freaking hot' you encounter without active cooling.
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June 03, 2013, 09:01:12 PM
 #815

make that 77 erupters via 8 USB ubs Smiley

Great to hear that you've got the rest running now!  Did you end up running the rest on a second machine (mac)?
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June 03, 2013, 09:19:57 PM
 #816

make that 77 erupters via 8 USB ubs Smiley
What is the range of hw errors as a percent of accepted shares that you're getting, please?

On my working one it is running at about 0.9%. (IIRC, several other folks have reported getting about a 1% hw error rate.)

One which is now dead and in the process of getting replaced ran at about 10% hw errors for roughly eight hours. Then it died.

-- edit

NOTE: I had a fan blowing over them. They were both 'warm to the touch'. Not the 'freaking hot' you encounter without active cooling.

I'm getting about 1.1% HW errors across my 7.

M
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June 03, 2013, 09:50:45 PM
 #817

would love to add another 2 racks to that photo for ya!

make that 77 erupters via 8 USB hubs Smiley

Would love to see photos of that too!  Cool

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June 03, 2013, 10:01:51 PM
 #818

Anker's probably like, "Why the sudden rush in worldwide hub orders?"  Haha!!

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June 03, 2013, 10:06:19 PM
 #819

will get a pic up soon
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June 03, 2013, 10:26:10 PM
 #820

Anker's probably like, "Why the sudden rush in worldwide hub orders?"  Haha!!

lol  Cheesy

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