Bitcoin Forum
April 27, 2017, 09:25:24 AM *
News: If the forum does not load normally for you, please send me a traceroute.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 [49] 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [Announcement] Block Erupter USB  (Read 239524 times)
Lethn
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1456



View Profile WWW
June 17, 2013, 01:14:13 PM
 #961

When are you going to ship single products? I'd be very interested in getting some because this looks great for someone casual, ordering 300 isn't very realistic for someone like me and I want to actually own the product rather than share it.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1493285124
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1493285124

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1493285124
Reply with quote  #2

1493285124
Report to moderator
markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 01:43:49 PM
 #962

As long as the difficulty is lower than 800 million (assuming a btc/USD price of 100$), those devices make profit.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

You do realise that 800 million difficulty is less than six doublings from 19,339,258 right?

And with difficulty growth @ 33% a month (or more!) difficulty is doubling pretty much every three months.

I will let you work out the maths of how many months six doublings will take  Wink

M

██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
elasticband
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008


Nighty Night Don't Let The Trolls Bite Nom Nom Nom


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 02:24:39 PM
 #963

When are you going to ship single products? I'd be very interested in getting some because this looks great for someone casual, ordering 300 isn't very realistic for someone like me and I want to actually own the product rather than share it.

why not look for someone selling singles? pretty sure my signature can help you out
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 03:00:20 PM
 #964

As long as the difficulty is lower than 800 million (assuming a btc/USD price of 100$), those devices make profit.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

You do realise that 800 million difficulty is less than six doublings from 19,339,258 right?

And with difficulty growth @ 33% a month (or more!) difficulty is doubling pretty much every three months.

I will let you work out the maths of how many months six doublings will take  Wink

M

Sure, but you are asuming the increase will be 33% every month? How would it. The ROI nearly all devices would be negative, so who would buy them?

markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 03:12:04 PM
 #965

As long as the difficulty is lower than 800 million (assuming a btc/USD price of 100$), those devices make profit.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

You do realise that 800 million difficulty is less than six doublings from 19,339,258 right?

And with difficulty growth @ 33% a month (or more!) difficulty is doubling pretty much every three months.

I will let you work out the maths of how many months six doublings will take  Wink

M

Sure, but you are asuming the increase will be 33% every month? How would it. The ROI nearly all devices would be negative, so who would buy them?

The ASIC's received earliest with the low energy use per G/H will keep going, all Avalons and ASICminers will stop.

This will only leave BFL customers who got miners now and in the next 2-3 months going, unless someone launches something lower power per G/H.

Then people will pile into that too.

Eventually unless the surviving ASIC manufacturers limit supply onto the market to match hashrate (thus controlling difficultly increases) then it will all go pop.

And the reason is humans are dumb and gready and don't understand the exponential function. This same scenario has happened in every market ever traded.

And BTC rise in $$$ won't stop it. Hashrate will keep rising to eat up the $$$ until the bubble pops.

We have less than two years until this happens. And it will happen. Anyone buying anything other than BFL currently is nuts.

M

██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 04:17:41 PM
 #966

Lol, funny read. BFL isn't shipping. Buying them is nuts. So far only ASICminer seems to have shipped ASICs on mass.

seleme
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 04:21:50 PM
 #967

So far only ASICminer seems to have shipped ASICs on mass.
So what, if you can't make a profit with them?

Shares go up, that's what is important mate, screw the ROI  Grin

markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 05:57:31 PM
 #968

So far only ASICminer seems to have shipped ASICs on mass.
So what, if you can't make a profit with them?

Shares go up, that's what is important mate, screw the ROI  Grin

If ASICminer have no current future development for chips with less power use than BFL you should dump these to a greater fool sooner rather than later because as soon as ASIC miner products are losing money compared with energy used to hash BTC, maybe around the end of the year, then these shares will be worthless almost overnight.

M

██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 06:03:50 PM
 #969

BFL is crap, I better get a KnCMiner Jupiter. 350 GHs baby!

markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 06:05:34 PM
 #970

Lol, funny read. BFL isn't shipping. Buying them is nuts. So far only ASICminer seems to have shipped ASICs on mass.

Not on demand (thank god!) but pre orders are shipping and they are slowly catching up, and this is well documented. Even some bigger units are moving now too. It's no coincidence that network hashrate is 139 TH now and difficulty has jumped from 11m to 19m in the last 4 weeks. Funny enough the same timeframe BFL started shipping back orders!

M


██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 06:42:41 PM
 #971

Yeah, or Avalons units made the Hashrate jump. So far I heard that only first 3 days of Jalapenos are shipped, which makes it what? 10 units? Is there a thread of the current number of shipped BFLs?

markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 06:58:31 PM
 #972

BFL is crap, I better get a KnCMiner Jupiter. 350 GHs baby!

I would want to see a working prototype on youtube with a bitcoin dev pulling less than 5w G/H before put down any money on these. It would need to pull less than 1.75KW to compete with BFL.

M

██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
Anenome5
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
June 18, 2013, 05:46:09 AM
 #973

As long as the difficulty is lower than 800 million (assuming a btc/USD price of 100$), those devices make profit.
With a break-even of what, 800 years?

exactly - these devices are probably only good for mining alt coins by this point. SHA256 alt coins particularly.
I guess that's the answer why anyone's buying these, but it's not a great answer.

I guess, if you had an alt-coin you wanted to protect from 51% you could buy a bunch of these on the cheap and get them much faster than other ASICs.

But frankly, I can't see why any alt-coin at this point doesn't adopt the Scrypt strategy, as straight SHA256 is going to leave them too vulnerable ultimately, and we've seen a bunch attacked successfully lately.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
June 18, 2013, 05:51:40 AM
 #974

As long as the difficulty is lower than 800 million (assuming a btc/USD price of 100$), those devices make profit.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

You do realise that 800 million difficulty is less than six doublings from 19,339,258 right?

And with difficulty growth @ 33% a month (or more!) difficulty is doubling pretty much every three months.

I will let you work out the maths of how many months six doublings will take  Wink

M
I expect the diff to level off a bit after the avalons and the KNCs ship. A doubling of network power constitutes the deployment of perhaps millions of dollars worth of gear. Double the network power and you're doubling the infrastructure investment cost. That can't happen ad infinitum. Even with a bitcoin price well above the generation cost, at some point an investment only makes sense if the price of bitcoin is assuredly higher than X in the near term, and we've been on a slow but steady downward slope lately and probably will be for the rest of the year, which should make further investment by large investors, like Asicminer, a little nervous. Imagine the price crashes down to 50 or 20, are they leveraged enough to stumble from that? I have no idea, but perhaps so.

And GPU miners haven't fled just yet. But they will.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
June 18, 2013, 05:53:54 AM
 #975

This will only leave BFL customers who got miners now and in the next 2-3 months going, unless someone launches something lower power per G/H.
...such as KNCMiner.

Eventually unless the surviving ASIC manufacturers limit supply onto the market to match hashrate (thus controlling difficultly increases) then it will all go pop.
Huh? They can't keep new suppliers from popping up.

We have less than two years until this happens. And it will happen. Anyone buying anything other than BFL currently is nuts.
BFL - 65 nm. KNC, 28 nm. Conclusion--exactly the opposite of yours here.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
June 18, 2013, 05:56:51 AM
 #976

BFL is crap, I better get a KnCMiner Jupiter. 350 GHs baby!

I would want to see a working prototype on youtube with a bitcoin dev pulling less than 5w G/H before put down any money on these. It would need to pull less than 1.75KW to compete with BFL.

M
The Jupiters are currently slated to use 1kw.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
markyminer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


http://taas.fund


View Profile
June 18, 2013, 11:00:48 AM
 #977

BFL is crap, I better get a KnCMiner Jupiter. 350 GHs baby!

I would want to see a working prototype on youtube with a bitcoin dev pulling less than 5w G/H before put down any money on these. It would need to pull less than 1.75KW to compete with BFL.

M
The Jupiters are currently slated to use 1kw.

Yes but BFL was initially slated to use 5 x less power than they do now they are shipping. They advertised and took large pre orders based on 1w a G/H.  They are shipping at 5w G/H or slightly less for the bigger rigs.

Until KNC show a working prototype pulling this power I would not order. BFL forced older pre-order customers to accept the new 5 x power increase or they refunded their money.

M

██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
███
███████████     ██████████████     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████
██████████████     ███████████
███     ██████████████     ██████████████

T O K E N  -  A S  -  A  -  S E R V I C E

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████

████
████
████
████
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
██ ░ ██
████
████
████
████
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 18, 2013, 11:20:31 AM
 #978

I ask you again to tell me how many BFL devices have been shipped.

pixl8tr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336



View Profile
June 18, 2013, 11:29:58 AM
 #979

I ask you again to tell me how many BFL devices have been shipped.

No One but BFL knows that, and they are not disclosing the exact numbers shipped.

Quote from BFL_Jody on her blog.
Quote
Let's get clear about our agreement here. This is a SHIPPING blog. I agree to tell you the shipping dates of the products we are shipping every day so you can have some idea where we are in the queue.

Some people ask me to share the order numbers. These are not relevant, since we ship by pay date. It would tell you nothing. Sometimes we had to assign a large number to an old order because it got lost. The order numbers are only for reference, not shipping queue.

Others ask me to post quantities shipped each day. This also doesn't tell you anything, because you don't know how many orders there are. Some of this information is proprietary and we just don't share it.

who | grep -i blonde | date; cd ~; unzip; touch; finger; bjobs; uptime; strip;. grab; mount; yes; umount; sleep; brun;
Donations: 18ByQvDUmaMKkQbYvUWmnPSu9BWeNxVMoc
alibert
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile
June 18, 2013, 12:39:00 PM
 #980

a quick search on ebay reveiled ONE butterfly labs 50 ghs unit and SEVEN avalon units in hand (and EIGHT jalapenos).

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 [49] 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!