netrin
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August 08, 2011, 01:43:42 AM |
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I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table. On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges. For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August. In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate. Actual Low High 2011-07-21
===== ==== | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45 13.8 | 13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 | | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63 14.1 | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75 14.7 | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 | ========== | 12.895- |
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 | | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 | 13.448- |
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 | 14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3 13.95 | 2011-07-29 | | | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 | 15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33 13.7 | ========== | | | | 13.1-14.0 | " |
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 | 13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 | | | | " |
07-31 | 12.8 14.9 | 13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 | | | " |
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 13.4-13.8 | 13.1-13.5 | ========== | | | " |
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.2-13.8 | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 | | | 12.145- |
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 | | | 14.534- |
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 | | 16.426- |
08-05 | 9.5 11 | | 12.966- | 13.1-14.1 | ========== | | 18.251 |
08-06 | 5.75 10 | | 13.238- | 12.258- | 5.26- | 2011-08-07 | " |
08-07 | 6 9.5 | | 13.883- | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 | ========== | " |
08-08 | | | 14.468 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 | " |
08-09 | | | " | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | " |
08-10 | | | " | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | " |
08-11 | | | " | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | " |
08-12 | | | " | 12.550- | | | " |
08-13 | | | " | 12.748- | | | 15.995- |
08-14 | | | " | 13.228- | | | 16.592- |
08-15 | | | 12.834- | 13.383 | | | 19.379- |
08-16 | | | 13.253- | " | | | 19.977 |
08-17 | | | 14.176- | " | | | " |
08-18 | | | 14.871 | " | | | " |
08-19 | | | " | " | | | " |
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netrin
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August 08, 2011, 03:41:41 AM |
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If it makes any sense, I'd still appreciate side comments on those 'low value' correlations. For example, in a recent post you saw $2 in the crystal ball and then retracted it yesterday to $6. Both of those data are interesting.
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xali
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August 08, 2011, 05:59:56 AM |
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u should make a website and post updates, and then put that description somewhere there too
If you want to digest the posts somewhere—knock yourself out... Is that permission to make a website out of it? |
someone else had been posting on my account for over a year; Every post from January 10 2017 to June 18 2018 is NOT ME
Whoever this person was that got access to my account, felt the need to shill something called "bidium" in my signature
very surreal. is this normal? the internet is full of crooks... watch out
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oakpacific
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August 08, 2011, 02:17:57 PM |
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I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table. On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges. For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August. In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate. Actual Low High 2011-07-21
===== ==== | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45 13.8 | 13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 | | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63 14.1 | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75 14.7 | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 | ========== | 12.895- |
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 | | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 | 13.448- |
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 | 14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3 13.95 | 2011-07-29 | | | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 | 15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33 13.7 | ========== | | | | 13.1-14.0 | " |
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 | 13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 | | | | " |
07-31 | 12.8 14.9 | 13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 | | | " |
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 13.4-13.8 | 13.1-13.5 | ========== | | | " |
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.2-13.8 | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 | | | 12.145- |
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 | | | 14.534- |
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 | | 16.426- |
08-05 | 9.5 11 | | 12.966- | 13.1-14.1 | ========== | | 18.251 |
08-06 | 5.75 10 | | 13.238- | 12.258- | 5.26- | 2011-08-07 | " |
08-07 | 6 9.5 | | 13.883- | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 | ========== | " |
08-08 | | | 14.468 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 | " |
08-09 | | | " | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | " |
08-10 | | | " | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | " |
08-11 | | | " | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | " |
08-12 | | | " | 12.550- | | | " |
08-13 | | | " | 12.748- | | | 15.995- |
08-14 | | | " | 13.228- | | | 16.592- |
08-15 | | | 12.834- | 13.383 | | | 19.379- |
08-16 | | | 13.253- | " | | | 19.977 |
08-17 | | | 14.176- | " | | | " |
08-18 | | | 14.871 | " | | | " |
08-19 | | | " | " | | | " |
Thanks a lot for your work, it seems that people who really try to help others always won't bother to put a donation link in their sigs. |
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netrin
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August 08, 2011, 10:39:55 PM |
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 (Google trend) This one worries me. Google trend is the number of queries, not the awareness (which would be more cumulative). Does that mean that if/when bitcoin is mainstream and no longer query/news worthy then the price will be $0? |
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netrin
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August 08, 2011, 11:19:08 PM
Last edit: September 21, 2011, 04:45:44 AM by netrin |
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epii
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August 09, 2011, 01:08:54 AM |
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Following this...
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netrin
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August 09, 2011, 02:38:53 AM
Last edit: August 09, 2011, 04:28:36 AM by netrin |
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So, the market is either going up, otherwise it will go down.  Looks like better rewards betting on Scenario 1. Actual Low High 2011-07-06 2011-07-10 |
Date ===== ==== ========== ========== | Date
07-06 | 13 16.5 | 10.735- | 11.763- | | 07-06
07-07 | 14.5 15.9 | 14.267- | 13.615- | | 07-07
07-08 | 13.9 15.6 | 18.370- | 15.604- | | 07-08
07-09 | 14.04 14.7 | 22.269 | 16.535 | day 11..14 | 07-09
07-10 | 14.35 15.7 | " | " | ========== | 07-10
07-11 | 13.8 15.2 | " | " |2011-07-13 | 14.0-14.5 | | 07-11
07-12 | 13.9 14.65 | " | " |========== | 13.9-14.6 | | 07-12
07-13 | 13.9 14.15 | " | " | 11.833- | 13.6-15.8 | | 07-13
07-14 | 13.7 14.07 | " | " | 14.339- | 13.6-14.2 | | 07-14
07-15 | 13.5 14.07 | " | " | 16.863- | | | 07-15
07-16 | 13.5 13.8 | " | " | 18.028 | | | 07-16
07-17 | 13 13.75 | " | " | " | | | 07-17
07-18 | 12.5 14.6 | " | " | " | | | 07-18
07-19 | 13.5 14.7 | 10.047- | 10.852- | 12.738- | | | 07-19
07-20 | 13.4 14 | 13.352- | 13.870- | 15.244- | |2011-07-21 | 07-20
07-21 | 13.4 13.8 | 17.193- | 15.325- | 17.228- | |========== |2011-07-22 |2011-07-23 | 07-21
07-22 | 13.45 13.8 | 20.842 | 16.834 | 19.142 | | 13.5-14.0 |========== |========== | 07-22
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 | " | " | " |2011-07-25 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 |2011-07-24 | 07-23
07-24 | 13.63 14.1 | " | " | " |========== | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 |========== 2011-07-25 | 07-24
07-25 | 13.75 14.7 | " | " | " | 12.895- | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 |========== | 07-25
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 | " | " | " | 13.448- | | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 | | 07-26
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 | " | " | " | 14.239- | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 | | 07-27
07-28 | 13.3 13.95 | " | " | " | 15.462 | | | | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 |2011-07-29 | 07-28
07-29 | 13.33 13.7 | " | " | " | " | | | | | 13.1-14.0 |========== | 07-29
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 | " | " | " | " |2011-07-31 | | | | | 13.4-13.9 | 07-30
07-31 | 12.8 14.9 | " | " | " | " |========== |2011-08-02 | | | | 13.4-13.8 | 07-31
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 10.085- | 12.775- | " | " | 13.1-13.5 |========== | | | | 13.4-13.8 | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.403- | 14.569- | 16.775- | 12.145- | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 08-02
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | 17.257- | 18.232- | 17.402- | 14.534- | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 | | | | | 08-03
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | 20.920 | 20.361 | 20.325- | 16.426- | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 | | | | 08-04
08-05 | 9.5 11 | " | " | 20.952 | 18.251 | 12.966- | 13.1-14.1 |========== | | | | 08-05
08-06 | 5.75 10 | " | " | " | " | 13.238- | 12.258- | 5.26- |2011-08-07 | 08-08 | 08-08 | 08-06
08-07 | 6 9.5 | " | " | " | " | 13.883- | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | 08-07
08-08 | 7.05 8.1 | " | " | " | " | 14.468 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== | 08-08
08-09 | | " | " | " | " | " | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 | 08-09
08-10 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 08-10
08-11 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 08-11
08-12 | | " | " | " | " | " | 12.550- | | | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 08-12
08-13 | | " | " | 20.117- | 15.995- | " | 12.748- | | | | | 08-13
08-14 | | 20.573- | 19.498- | 20.830- | 16.592- | " | 13.228- | | | | | 08-14
08-15 | | 27.342- | 20.464- | 22.692- | 19.379- | 12.834- | 13.383 | | | | | 08-15
08-16 | | 35.206- | 28.627- | 31.324 | 19.977 | 13.253- | " | | | | | 08-16
08-17 | | 42.678 | 53.838 | " | " | 14.176- | " | | | | | 08-17
08-18 | | " | " | " | " | 14.871 | " | | | | | 08-18
08-19 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-19
08-20 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-20
08-21 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-21
08-22 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-22
08-23 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-23
08-24 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-24
08-25 | | " | " | " | " | " | " | | | | | 08-25
08-26 | | | " | | | " | " | | | | | 08-26
08-27 | | | | | | " | " | | | | | 08-27
08-28 | | | | | | | | | | | | 08-28
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netrin
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August 09, 2011, 04:29:52 AM |
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Seriously? You say that after the $150K push to $9 within the past hour? (I added your predictive histories above  ) |
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newMeat1
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August 09, 2011, 04:31:59 AM |
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Yeah sorry Chod. I used to be a believer, but it's starting to look like you're pulling things out of your @!!. Mostly based on the movement in the past week or so...
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oakpacific
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August 09, 2011, 11:46:48 AM |
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Hi, Chod, I have been reading this and it gives me quite a bit help, so I'll give my two cents, which migh actullay be worthless, but anyway, here it goes. I actually somehow found out about the rally beforehand because in one of the markets I trade, Britcoin, the highest bidding price for BTC is constantly and suspiciously higher than that of Mt.Gox by a large margin, during the whole weekend, as you can see from this graph from http://fnoose.com/bitcoin/arbitrage/, the arbitrage profit margin skyrocketd in the last few days, when Mt.Gox price was taking a dip:  then I assume that someone may be buying in large quantites to prepare for a big uptrend attack yet don't want to move the Mt.Gox price yet, I might be totally wrong, but all I want to say is: maybe the ride in price between markets is some useful information you could include in your model.(Or if you have alreaady done that, just ignore me) |
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Piper67
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August 09, 2011, 02:11:46 PM |
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Monkey, meet ouija board... Ouija board, meet monkey  |
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TraderTimm
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August 09, 2011, 04:32:03 PM |
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Now that Scenarios 1 and 2 have been blown out of the water  ... I am now looking at Scenario 3. It still seems to be dependent on where we end up on the day. Generally, the prices that I would expect going forward will be higher if we end up higher, and lower if we end up lower. As I see it right now, if we do not test new highs or new lows for the day the threshold for the 24 hour price looks like $8.22 to avoid a dip below $7.00 over the next four days. For what it is worth, I place a 75% confidence level on that outcome. If it looks like things have changed I will post an update. But I will still post the four day targets after 12am GMT. Don't sweat it, my model looks like a sheet hung out in a hurricane. You're doing better than that, by a long shot. I'm interested as well to see if we maintain a 10 dollar support level in the next 24 hours. |
fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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netrin
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August 10, 2011, 01:18:06 AM |
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Actual Low High 2011-08-02 Date
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 |========== | | | | | | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.0-13.5 | | | | | | 08-02
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | 13.3-13.8 | | | | | | 08-03
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 | | | | | 08-04
08-05 | 9.5 11 | 13.1-14.1 |========== | | | | | 08-05
08-06 | 5.75 10 | 12.258- | 5.26- |2011-08-07 | 08-08 | 08-08 | | 08-06
08-07 | 6 9.5 | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | | 08-07
08-08 | 7.05 8.1 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 | 08-08
08-09 | 7.7 12.1 | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== | 08-09
08-10 | | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 | 08-10
08-11 | | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 | 08-11
08-12 | | 12.550- | | | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 | 08-12
08-13 | | 12.748- | | | | | 7.78-8.75 | 08-13
08-14 | | 13.228- | | | | | | 08-14
08-15 | | 13.383 | | | | | | 08-15
08-16 | | " | | | | | | 08-16
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grod
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August 12, 2011, 06:15:58 AM |
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It's shocking we had as much correlation as we had.
Everyone came to a concensus on a 5.80 as a rock solid resistence using our collective crystal balls, analytics, guts, asses and lo and behold that's exactly what happened. You also called a relatively immediate $12, which my ass didn't see as likely at all.
So overall, excellent predictive results even though time frames don't seem to match up precisely. If only we had derivatives which let us act on expected volatility. Then again, if we did have them perhaps we wouldn't have such spectacular manic/depressive cycles.
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newMeat1
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August 12, 2011, 06:50:49 PM |
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How are you coming up with these price targets? Do you fit a polynomial to the data?
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newMeat1
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August 12, 2011, 07:31:39 PM |
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So it's kind of a fuzzy logic approach, where you take all these different factors into account with one huge equation? Like,
new_Price= Old_Price * (1 + 0.1 if it's Friday - 0.05 if Volume was low yesterday + ...)
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Oldminer
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August 13, 2011, 06:20:42 AM |
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2011-08-14 $9.207 $10.130
2011-08-15 $8.808 $9.490
2011-08-16 $8.840 $9.133
2011-08-17 $8.775 $9.295
All due respect (IMO your a very intelligent guy) but didnt your analysis also predict a value of $10 - $13 over the next few days the day before it crashed to $6  |
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fcmatt
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August 13, 2011, 06:39:04 AM |
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2011-08-14 $9.207 $10.130
2011-08-15 $8.808 $9.490
2011-08-16 $8.840 $9.133
2011-08-17 $8.775 $9.295
All due respect (IMO your a very intelligent guy) but didnt your analysis also predict a value of $10 - $13 over the next few days the day before it crashed to $6 i have to wonder if a large event(s) happens like the exchange losing it's btc and mybitcoin finally known to be owned... would throw out any guess on pricing and cannot really be held against a person.... so here we have a bitcoin conference coming up and i have to wonder if chodpada is putting that into his calculations at all. we could very well see people buying in expectation that some media attention might create a burst up days/week after the conference. or is a pure math guess without taking into account external influences.. basically assuming several normal trading days without big news to look forward to. i have not read this whole thread. |
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