dree12
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1077
|
 |
November 29, 2011, 03:28:43 AM |
|
An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.
Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it). HUGE, eh?  edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10. Before anyone beats me to it:  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to
trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions
effortless." -- Satoshi
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
|
|
November 29, 2011, 03:51:51 AM
Last edit: November 29, 2011, 11:19:23 AM by cbeast |
|
An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.
Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it). HUGE, eh? edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10. Before anyone beats me to it: [photo snipped] Yes, PI is roughly the square root of ten. Interesting. Anyway, computing the predictability of a complex market adapting to bitcoin is hard to gauge. I suspect it will parallel the growth of internet bandwidth traffic.  |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
|
|
|
cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
|
|
November 29, 2011, 11:21:48 AM |
|
I agree, Bitcoin is in the developer's court at the moment. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
December 01, 2011, 02:40:12 PM |
|
Hey, chodpaba, can you tell us how your experiment worked? Did you conclude that your daily charts were influencing the market?
|
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
notme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
|
|
December 01, 2011, 02:45:59 PM |
|
His latest chart didn't hold too well. If there is a correlation, it might be negative.
|
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
December 11, 2011, 03:46:32 AM |
|
Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.
|
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
notme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
|
|
December 11, 2011, 04:01:33 AM |
|
Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.
Just a touch under 2.9 and I suspect we'll bounce off 2.4 |
|
|
|
BadBear
v2.0
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1127
|
|
December 13, 2011, 01:34:25 PM |
|
Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.
Not anymore, pretty big ask wall went up at 3.50.  |
|
|
|
|
BTCurious
|
|
December 13, 2011, 06:37:49 PM |
|
Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.
|
|
|
|
proudhon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
|
|
December 13, 2011, 06:39:47 PM |
|
Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.
So, walls are fake or they're real. |
Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
|
|
|
|
BTCurious
|
|
December 13, 2011, 06:45:45 PM |
|
Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.
So, walls are fake or they're real. sure. But if they're real, they don't survive very long when they're touched. I've never seen the price kicking a large wall like that for a long time. |
|
|
|
notme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
|
|
December 20, 2011, 07:37:33 AM |
|
Your "resistance" doesn't seem to be offering much resistance  . But maybe that step at 4.6 is indicative, at least in the short term. |
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
December 20, 2011, 02:32:13 PM |
|
Where we were just a day ago is now 1.7-1.8 on the support scale :O
|
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
December 30, 2011, 05:58:20 PM |
|
That's a pretty big cliff to climb, but let's do it anyways  By the way, chodpaba, I know your charts don't rely on market depth, but I think they should take it into account. Bitcoin moves in spikes (usually). If, for example, someone bought 20k BTC right now, it would push the price to 4.6, past your two huge walls. |
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
Flappy
Member
Offline
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
|
|
December 30, 2011, 06:43:35 PM |
|
Also not an indicator of whether we are in a bull or bear market.
|
|
|
|
|
Flappy
Member
Offline
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
|
|
December 30, 2011, 07:49:24 PM |
|
So, lets see if I'm reading it right. Assuming we're in a bull market, it would take 4 days of "average volume" rallying to see $6.
Although, I'd say the recent "price moving" rally's have been higher than "average volume". In other words, we've seen some high volume spikes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
BTCurious
|
|
January 01, 2012, 07:57:39 PM |
|
Your chart's outdated |
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
January 01, 2012, 07:58:28 PM |
|
Your chart's outdated The walls are all falling down now. Only a matter of time before $6, $8, $10, $30. |
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
January 02, 2012, 02:42:32 PM |
|
You can see our next stops on that chart... they're the plateaus  |
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
|
ineededausername
|
|
January 02, 2012, 03:34:06 PM |
|
You can see our next stops on that chart... they're the plateaus That would be price on the right side of those flat spots in the curve. Price has less friction on those 'plateaus'. It doesn't describe how fast price moves through the range, but how much volume it is likely to take. The resistance curve says it should take less volume to move through a price range on the flat spots. Right, I meant the right side (should've made that clear). |
(BFL)^2 < 0
|
|
|
|
