ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[VeeMiner]

any idea of what happens to all those pass through AM shares?

they should become direct shares through the passthrough owner who should be given the BTC addresses that are affiliated with the shares - at least that's what I think should happen...

[1715320148]

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[1715320148]

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[1715320148]

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[keeron]

Well, Burnside owns that asset....oh shit :-)

[binaryFate]

Shall we trigger the transfer out to btct or wait for burnside to speak??!

[VeeMiner]

Shall we trigger the transfer out to btct or wait for burnside to speak??!

I'll answer a bunch more of these questions tomorrow, but I think these are important to address quickly:

First.  The asset issuers have what they need to continue after the trade-freeze.  I am not selling my assets because I hold assets with issuers I felt like I could trust.  In other words, think about what you're doing before you do it.

Second.  If you're trying to withdraw and it's locked, please make sure you've plugged in your address on this page first:  https://btct.co/account?tab=tab2  We have everyone's funds, though I am going to have to pull some funds out of the offline wallet tomorrow I am almost certain.

Third.  ASICMINER-PT shareholders will be fine.  We have lots of options.

Cheers.

[lophie]

Shall we trigger the transfer out to btct or wait for burnside to speak??!

I'll answer a bunch more of these questions tomorrow, but I think these are important to address quickly:

First.  The asset issuers have what they need to continue after the trade-freeze.  I am not selling my assets because I hold assets with issuers I felt like I could trust.  In other words, think about what you're doing before you do it.

Second.  If you're trying to withdraw and it's locked, please make sure you've plugged in your address on this page first:  https://btct.co/account?tab=tab2  We have everyone's funds, though I am going to have to pull some funds out of the offline wallet tomorrow I am almost certain.

Third.  ASICMINER-PT shareholders will be fine.  We have lots of options.

Cheers.

[RationalSpeculator]

0.00967485

As I said before, the dividends are meaningless at this point. They will be low as all coins going towards gen 2 R&D.  What matters is the hashrate and ASICMiner being able to stay ahead of the game.

Sometimes it is wise not to invest in extra production capacity if the industry is going into overcapacity. Then it's wiser to save your money so that you can buy production capacity from others for pennies on the dollar.

Owning production capacity is not interesting when every unit produced is at a loss due to low price of commodity and high investment costs of production equipment.

Could this not be the situation for bitcoin mining in which case AM would be best to save all it's btc, convert some in usd also, and wait for the crises?

[Rival]

You make a good point. There is only one position that is as good as first mover, and that is last mover.

[Lohoris]

Guess it's time to exercise my options...

Yup.
Are you waiting on purpose, confiding it won't break soon?

[Vycid]

Guess it's time to exercise my options...

Yup.
Are you waiting on purpose, confiding it won't break soon?

I've already delta-hedged all my remaining options, so the execution is just a formality. Theoretically there is still black-scholes value associated with the options; if the price went back above my target, I could sell back out of the delta-hedge and become net short again.

However, the counterweighting factor is the risk associated with holding options on an imploding exchange. That alone isn't enough to make me execute yet, but now that I consider I am also trapping the money of the people that wrote me options on BTCT, that is enough to compel me to execute the remainder later today.

Sorry, by the way. I don't enjoy taking people's money. At least you did a little better than you would have if you had bought more shares outright.

[Lohoris]

I've already delta-hedged all my remaining options, so the execution is just a formality. Theoretically there is still black-scholes value associated with the options; if the price went back above my target, I could sell back out of the delta-hedge and become net short again.

However, the counterweighting factor is the risk associated with holding options on an imploding exchange. That alone isn't enough to make me execute yet, but now that I consider I am also trapping the money of the people that wrote me options on BTCT, that is enough to compel me to execute the remainder later today.

Sorry, by the way. I don't enjoy taking people's money. At least you did a little better than you would have if you bought another share outright.

Thank you : )

[velacreations]

so, 500 TH/s coming in October.  Even if they average 1BTC profit per blade, that's 50,000 btc in profit over the next month or 2.  That could add .016 btc to the dividend PER WEEK for 8 weeks.

hmmmm.....

[VeeMiner]

so, 500 TH/s coming in October.  Even if they average 1BTC profit per blade, that's 50,000 btc in profit over the next month or 2.  That could add .016 btc to the dividend PER WEEK for 8 weeks.

hmmmm.....

people who kept/bought the shares now will be winning

[velacreations]

people who kept/bought the shares now will be winning

we'll still see dips in price.  The dividend for this week will likely be very weak, and I think we are looking at 2-3 weeks before the 500TH/s is for sale

[VeeMiner]

people who kept/bought the shares now will be winning

we'll still see dips in price.  The dividend for this week will likely be very weak, and I think we are looking at 2-3 weeks before the 500TH/s is for sale

people who are able to wait will reap the ritches

[velacreations]

people who are able to wait will reap the ritches

who is kicking themselves for not buying a bunch at 1.2x yesterday?

[bbxx]

people who are able to wait will reap the ritches

who is kicking themselves for not buying a bunch at 1.2x yesterday?

I bought a few 2 days ago

Immersion divs will be spectacular,
After vmc and labcoin fail, just-dice loss, there is no safe bay except asicminer
Icedrill petamine and other pmbs are not profitable yet, neobee ipo is too large,

Am shares will be worth much more after two weeks + divs...
No better option to invest now... Or i am wrong?

[velacreations]

Am shares will be worth much more after two weeks + divs...
No better option to invest now... Or i am wrong?

I think you're wrong.  I think tomorrow, we'll see a weak dividend, likely similar to last week, and people will sell.  Next week, it will be the same. The week after, we may start to see some anticipation of the new hardware, and the price will slowly rise.

[bbxx]

Am shares will be worth much more after two weeks + divs...
No better option to invest now... Or i am wrong?

I think you're wrong.  I think tomorrow, we'll see a weak dividend, likely similar to last week, and people will sell.  Next week, it will be the same. The week after, we may start to see some anticipation of the new hardware, and the price will slowly rise.

I think i will craft some options especially for you

[viruscs]

people who are able to wait will reap the ritches

who is kicking themselves for not buying a bunch at 1.2x yesterday?

I bought a few 2 days ago

Immersion divs will be spectacular,
After vmc and labcoin fail, just-dice loss, there is no safe bay except asicminer
Icedrill petamine and other pmbs are not profitable yet, neobee ipo is too large,

Am shares will be worth much more after two weeks + divs...
No better option to invest now... Or i am wrong?

you are right

[jinyoubei]

I think those loans gives 0.05% daily are good options too, but the price is already too high.
Vmc and labcoin will probably rise again, if you are willing to take the risk...