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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
tigereye
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September 18, 2013, 06:27:54 PM
 #3181

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 
The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.
40TH?

You mean 13TH, right?
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

or 1.6% of the whole network...

 Cry

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Rival
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September 18, 2013, 06:29:23 PM
 #3182

Perhaps this needs to be revisited:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285479.msg3051739#msg3051739
binaryFate
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September 18, 2013, 06:30:47 PM
 #3183

I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?


Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:32:42 PM
 #3184

40TH?

You mean 13TH, right?
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

or 1.6% of the whole network...

 Cry

far more accurate: http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=108,96,72,48

runeks
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September 18, 2013, 06:33:37 PM
 #3185

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 
The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.
40TH?

You mean 13TH, right?
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

or 1.6% of the whole network...

 Cry
No. I mean ~40TH/s average over the past week. Don't rely on 30h estimates when we only have 4% network share.
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:34:52 PM
 #3186

I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?

I remember a long period of hashing at 25% or more.  Do we average the all time hash rate or what to come up with the 10% figure?

It has become more profitable to sell current tech than to mine with it.  Would you prefer that he throws all of that tech into the mine and lose substantial revenue by doing so?

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September 18, 2013, 06:36:44 PM
 #3187

Beware that unless the author has re-coded the backend that calculates these figures, it won't be accurate after having crossed a difficulty adjustment.
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:38:45 PM
 #3188

Beware that unless the author has re-coded the backend that calculates these figures, it won't be accurate after having crossed a difficulty adjustment.

oh, yes, you are right, I forgot about that.
In any case, 30 hour or less estimates are not accurate (that was the point I was trying to make). 

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September 18, 2013, 06:42:23 PM
 #3189

I want to get a steady 10% of the network, with sells as bonus. That's what was planned no?

I remember a long period of hashing at 25% or more.  Do we average the all time hash rate or what to come up with the 10% figure?

It has become more profitable to sell current tech than to mine with it.  Would you prefer that he throws all of that tech into the mine and lose substantial revenue by doing so?
No, you're right, it's better like that. But I just see Gen2 being soooo far...  Undecided

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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September 18, 2013, 06:55:31 PM
 #3190

people selling for 1.6 BTC because of one "bad" dividend are plain stupid. And here I thought the weak hands already sold out...
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:55:37 PM
 #3191

No, you're right, it's better like that. But I just see Gen2 being soooo far...  Undecided

I hear ya, but also, they are still making Gen1, and hopefully, will continue to sell them quickly.

velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:56:33 PM
 #3192

people selling for 1.6 BTC because of one "bad" dividend are plain stupid. And here I thought the weak hands already sold out...
they are just selling for that because the demand is low.  I'm sure they would sell for more if we offered more! Smiley

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September 18, 2013, 07:01:33 PM
 #3193

people selling for 1.6 BTC because of one "bad" dividend are plain stupid. And here I thought the weak hands already sold out...
they are just selling for that because the demand is low.  I'm sure they would sell for more if we offered more! Smiley

what I'm trying to say is that there is no significant new information and this is a simple irrational panic sell
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September 18, 2013, 07:05:37 PM
 #3194

people selling for 1.6 BTC because of one "bad" dividend are plain stupid. And here I thought the weak hands already sold out...
they are just selling for that because the demand is low.  I'm sure they would sell for more if we offered more! Smiley

what I'm trying to say is that there is no significant new information and this is a simple irrational panic sell

Yes, and it has been the same after each low divs. There is a significant portion of people that are short-term sighted (at least on PT exchanges), and value the shares based on current divs.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 07:07:00 PM
 #3195

what I'm trying to say is that there is no significant new information and this is a simple irrational panic sell
yeah, I agree.  FC will likely give us an update tomorrow, and the price will bounce up around 2.

mechs
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September 18, 2013, 07:24:04 PM
 #3196

what I'm trying to say is that there is no significant new information and this is a simple irrational panic sell
yeah, I agree.  FC will likely give us an update tomorrow, and the price will bounce up around 2.
Or *tinfoil hat on*, FC will stay radio-silent and purposely let the prices get deciminated so he and his buddies in China can by back the shares on the cheap
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 07:27:13 PM
 #3197

Or *tinfoil hat on*, FC will stay radio-silent and purposely let the prices get deciminated so he and his buddies in China can by back the shares on the cheap

how low do they want it?

mechs
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September 18, 2013, 07:31:08 PM
 #3198

Or *tinfoil hat on*, FC will stay radio-silent and purposely let the prices get deciminated so he and his buddies in China can by back the shares on the cheap

how low do they want it?
I dunno, ask the chinese mafia....1 Yuan?Wink
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 07:32:17 PM
 #3199

I dunno, ask the chinese mafia....1 Yuan?Wink

what's that in btc?

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September 18, 2013, 07:32:53 PM
 #3200

what I'm trying to say is that there is no significant new information and this is a simple irrational panic sell
yeah, I agree.  FC will likely give us an update tomorrow, and the price will bounce up around 2.
Or *tinfoil hat on*, FC will stay radio-silent and purposely let the prices get deciminated so he and his buddies in China can by back the shares on the cheap

If he was going to be dishonest,  he could just disown the virtual shares and claim 100% ownership.

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