ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[glendall]

Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.

[1714819602]

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[1714819602]

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[ajk]

Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.

QFT. I dont get how some of these people are online all day all night, the ones that continuously post.. its almost like they dont even sleep. we get it dude you honestly need a better way of making money cause the amount some of you guys are online is unhealthy

[Vycid]

Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.

QFT. I dont get how some of these people are online all day all night, the ones that continuously post.. its almost like they dont even sleep. we get it dude you honestly need a better way of making money cause the amount some of you guys are online is unhealthy

Smartphone.

A lot of people argue with me directly or make inane statements about my credibility and I am not in the habit of ignoring them.

[ajk]

so even when your out and about you are staring at your phone, thats healthy to..

[Vycid]

so even when your out and about you are staring at your phone, thats healthy to..

I'm also on-call 24/7. The semi industry is not for the faint of heart.

(Or the sane/healthy, I guess.)

[ajk]

I wouldn't know the feeling considering that I dont work for anyone but myself.. im done this is what I get for giving my attention to someone who is just online all day

[Aedius]

How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.

Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

That's the best you can come up with?  It was an implicit statement; and a fairly obvious one at that. Valuation is the pillar from which all investment discussions and analysis flows, ask anyone in the finance industry what the largest company is and they'll list companies by market cap, not revenue.

[Vycid]

How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.

Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

That's the best you can come up with?   It was an implicit statement; and a fairly obvious one at that. Valuation is the pillar from which all investment discussions and analysis flows, ask anyone in the finance industry what the largest company is and they'll list companies by market cap, not revenue.

You're a fucking moron. Do a google search for "biggest company". Wikipedia, CNN Money,  Forbes - all use revenue.

Don't attempt to backpedal with some "oh, well, only value matters" argument. You said "size", I responded to that, then you attacked me for my ignorance, despite the fact you were clearly demonstrating your own, and that I provided evidence you were incorrect.

The point here is - 10% margin is quite good, on average. That is fact.

(Do a google search for "most valuable company" too.)

[101111]

You're a fucking moron. Do a google search for "biggest company". Wikipedia, CNN Money,  Forbes - all use revenue.

Don't attempt to backpedal with some "oh, well, only value matters" argument. You said "size", I responded to that, then you attacked me for my ignorance, despite the fact you were clearly demonstrating your own, and that I provided evidence you were incorrect.

The point here is - 10% margin is quite good, on average. That is fact.

(Do a google search for "most valuable company" too.)

Are you really employed? Can you communicate with others in a work situation? I highly doubt it.

When someone referred to largest company in the world most of us I'm sure knew what he meant, and I'm betting you knew what he meant, but you had to add your qualifier after the fact, largest BY REVENUE, to prove (to yourself at least) you were right, again, as always.

Not that any are needed but there are plenty of authoritative sources that show YOU ARE WRONG eg Financial Times call Apple no 1. International Business Times list Exxon, Apple, Google, Microsoft.

You're fond of linking to investopedia, so stick this up your a** http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/is-apple-really-the-largest-company-ever-aapl-msft-xom-ptr0821.aspx.

(go on, twist it any way you choose)

Oh, and have you seen a doctor yet? Seriously, you need to talk to someone, it will be good for your long term investing, work and social life etc.

[CMMPro]

So, here is what I've been thinking....Friedcat is moving all the old hardware out to the franchisors offsite locations.
We saw some significant btc rolling in from those "leases" when the difficulty increased....and that would explain the solo mining hashrate stagnation/drop.

He maybe doesn't quite have the new hardware yet so he is hashing minimally to keep the shareholders from shitting their pants any more than they already are...and possibly making space for the new gen(?)

He isn't going to wait until the entire new gen arrives and plug it in, he likely doesn't have space or power resources for that.
So, it makes sense to move out the old and blend in the new as it rolls in.

[velacreations]

So, here is what I've been thinking....Friedcat is moving all the old hardware out to the franchisors offsite locations.
We saw some significant btc rolling in from those "leases" when the difficulty increased....and that would explain the solo mining hashrate stagnation/drop.

He maybe doesn't quite have the new hardware yet so he is hashing minimally to keep the shareholders from shitting their pants any more than they already are...and possibly making space for the new gen(?)

He isn't going to wait until the entire new gen arrives and plug it in, he likely doesn't have space or power resources for that.
So, it makes sense to move out the old and blend in the new as it rolls in.

yes, and also, current hardware is better sold than to mine with, really.

[romerun]

many had tried to estimate value of AM. About a month after AM started hashing, they said 0.4 a share was crazy price and they miserably missed the bus. Which one has more risk to buy, now or at that time ?

[CMMPro]

Has anyone estimated the hashrate using what we know is solo, and the estimated franchise payments?

I don't think we know the exact details of the franchising percentages....they must make a bigger portion than ASICMiner gets.

I'm just wondering if the overall hashrate has actually increased behind the scene's with all these franchisors distributing the load quietly and solo mining appearing to stagnate or even drop.

Maybe it's at 150% already and we don't know it because it's all being done off-site. 

[binaryFate]

Has anyone estimated the hashrate using what we know is solo, and the estimated franchise payments?

I don't think we know the exact details of the franchising percentages....they must make a bigger portion than ASICMiner gets.

I'm just wondering if the overall hashrate has actually increased behind the scene's with all these franchisors distributing the load quietly and solo mining appearing to stagnate or even drop.

Maybe it's at 150% already and we don't know it because it's all being done off-site.  

The last payment from franchisees shows that they have something like ~11TH. So, given that AM seems to mine at 30~40TH, it remains around 50TH overall as before (the small difference could be due to some hardware being moved). But I agree they seem to make some empty space at the moment, otherwise there is no reason to move hardware to franchisee since they earn necessarily less than if you mine yourself. The reason for this empty space (or volontarily low hash), remains a mystery atm, though. (gen2 is too far to be the reason).

[velacreations]

(gen2 is too far to be the reason).

gen 2 could be ahead of schedule, or gen 1.5 is about to arrive... 

[Vycid]

You're a fucking moron. Do a google search for "biggest company". Wikipedia, CNN Money,  Forbes - all use revenue.

Don't attempt to backpedal with some "oh, well, only value matters" argument. You said "size", I responded to that, then you attacked me for my ignorance, despite the fact you were clearly demonstrating your own, and that I provided evidence you were incorrect.

The point here is - 10% margin is quite good, on average. That is fact.

(Do a google search for "most valuable company" too.)

Are you really employed? Can you communicate with others in a work situation? I highly doubt it.

My co-workers do not make a habit of personal attacks, do not malign my credibility or my ability to reason, and give due consideration to my opinions and arguments.

That goes both ways, I should add. I have the privilege of working with some of the smartest folks around. Incredible things happen in this industry. We are doing things today that were widely considered impossible little more than a decade ago.

When someone referred to largest company in the world most of us I'm sure knew what he meant, and I'm betting you knew what he meant, but you had to add your qualifier after the fact, largest BY REVENUE, to prove (to yourself at least) you were right, again, as always.

Not that any are needed but there are plenty of authoritative sources that show YOU ARE WRONG eg Financial Times call Apple no 1. International Business Times list Exxon, Apple, Google, Microsoft.

Apple IS #1 in market cap. I would not dispute that point, since it is a matter of record, and since I can look it up just as easily as you can. As of the close of the NYSE today, Apple had a market cap of $408,932,669,640, and Exxon a market cap of $ 390,292,681,864.

However, Apple IS NOT the biggest company by any measure that could be considered a measure of "bigness". Not in terms of revenue, profit, employees, square footage, whatever. It only is the most VALUABLE company, based on the shares outstanding and the market price of those shares.

It should surprise nobody that a company with such a truly exceptional profit margin is so valuable. If there was a one-man operation where a wizard manufactured 25,000,000 2,500,000 barrels of oil a day using nothing but his mind, and that company was publicly traded, that company would likely be the most valuable on Earth. You claim that would make it the biggest. I say you are wrong.

It was disingenuous for Aedius to use market cap as the metric for "biggest company" and then cite its profit margins, as if market cap and profit margins are unrelated. That was the point of the by-revenue rankings, which are much less correlated.

You're fond of linking to investopedia, so stick this up your a** http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/is-apple-really-the-largest-company-ever-aapl-msft-xom-ptr0821.aspx.

(go on, twist it any way you choose)

Third sentence of that article (did you read it?): "Many headlines have since proclaimed that Apple has broken a record for the most valuable company ever."

The headline of this article was supposed to be attention-grabbing. Accuracy is sometimes a secondary objective in journalism, sadly.

Oh, and have you seen a doctor yet? Seriously, you need to talk to someone, it will be good for your long term investing, work and social life etc.

Have you considered how it reflects on your emotional health that you would jump at the opportunity to participate in someone else's personal attacks?

It's probably true that this experience is bad for my health, to be honest. This is a vicious, vitriolic community. Contrarian opinions - usually met with forthright and honest discourse in healthy, balanced circumstances - are instead met with ridicule and disdain. Bitcoin is riddled with infighting, unnecessary hostility, close-mindedness and tinfoil thinking, which is, on reflection, not good for the outlook of the whole ecosystem.

Edit: I got a little carried away with that oil-wizard thought experiment, since 25 million barrels a day would also give that operation the biggest revenue. 2.5 million barrels is a better example.

[Vexual]

Accuracy is a secondary objective in other places too.

[Vycid]

Accuracy is a secondary objective in other places too.

And what do you suppose is the primary one?

Do you think I actually be short if I had to manufacture reasons to be bearish?

If you're referring to "something else" here, the placement is awfully convenient.

[Vexual]

And what do you suppose is the primary one?

Do you think I actually be short if thought I had to manufacture reasons to be bearish?

With any degree of accuracy, I can only say anything other than accuracy.

I can't speak for you, but if I thought I had to manufacture reasons to be bearish, yes maybe I actually be short too, I think. 

I'll third that "vicious personal attack" where you were referred to as an "amateur analyist".

[Vycid]

And what do you suppose is the primary one?

Do you think I actually be short if thought I had to manufacture reasons to be bearish?

I'll third that "vicious personal attack" where you were referred to as an "amateur analyist".

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst.

That is an attack on my credibility. There's no other way about it.

The use of the word "vicious" was in the context of the community, not that particular attack:

It's probably true that this experience is bad for my health, to be honest. This is a vicious, vitriolic community.

And considering that I have received many, many personal attacks at this point, it doesn't seem outlandish at all. Others have observed the same about this community's disposition.

Let's not get revisionist here.