ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[pikeadz]

Has there ever been any talk about a split?  Obviously the 21M limit in coins (or 11.5 rather, today) could be a factor in the limit of funds available for people to actually purchase AM shares.  For those unfamiliar with stock splits, doubling the number of shares available and reducing the price by a half would get around that limit without dilution.  I think if it happened sooner rather than later, people would be more likely to invest in AM, especially with difficulty increasing so much and reducing the entry point for many people into Bitcoin.

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[JimiQ84]

Has there ever been any talk about a split?  Obviously the 21M limit in coins (or 11.5 rather, today) could be a factor in the limit of funds available for people to actually purchase AM shares.  For those unfamiliar with stock splits, doubling the number of shares available and reducing the price by a half would get around that limit without dilution.  I think if it happened sooner rather than later, people would be more likely to invest in AM, especially with difficulty increasing so much and reducing the entry point for many people into Bitcoin.

there are "microshares" which are 1/100 of an AM share. No need to split.

[velacreations]

I expect the rise to slow down a bit until Weds.  What happens then is anyone's guess. Dividends will probably be a bit higher than last week, but not as high as the week before that.  I'm predicting in the .02 range.

Will this cause another sell off?

The following week should be excellent, as USB miners will be selling well, again, plus I expect a few blades to go up for sale, too.

[nubbins]

I expect the rise to slow down a bit until Weds.  What happens then is anyone's guess. Dividends will probably be a bit higher than last week, but not as high as the week before that.  I'm predicting in the .02 range.

Will this cause another sell off?

The following week should be excellent, as USB miners will be selling well, again, plus I expect a few blades to go up for sale, too.

I think the price is going to come down a bit this week, but no lower than 3.0.

[binaryFate]

Usually when it went up "too" quickly, it corrected a bit before increasing again more steadily. Might happen because the last days we've seen quite a quick rise.

[velacreations]

Usually when it went up "too" quickly, it corrected a bit before increasing again more steadily. Might happen because the last days we've seen quite a quick rise.

could happen.  It might slump down near 3.25, but I expect it to pick back up later today and tomorrow for the dividend rush.

[nubbins]

This is as good a time as any to promote my friedcat/ASICMINER t-shirt design contest: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242016.0

[Eric Muyser]

Usually when it went up "too" quickly, it corrected a bit before increasing again more steadily. Might happen because the last days we've seen quite a quick rise.

could happen.  It might slump down near 3.25, but I expect it to pick back up later today and tomorrow for the dividend rush.

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

You can try and bullshit people as much as you want by spreading nonsense in order to increase share price. You're just causing a bubble though, and bubble tend to burst.

Despite me saying that, I still hold TAT.AM shares, I just wouldn't buy any at current price because I can actually do basic maths. I'll wait for the bubble to burst and scoop up a load of shares at a fair price, while laughing at SOSLOVE screaming all over the place that Friedcat scammed him and is evil.

[binaryFate]

I got in AM just below 2BTC, and since then I've never seen something that could be call a bubble burst. Minor corrections, that's all. Were there any stronger corrections in the share history, or it has been always steady since the IPO?

[velacreations]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

[velacreations]

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that.  I typically see a rise right before dividend...

[velacreations]

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow!  bitfunder last price was 3.07!

[binaryFate]

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow!  bitfunder last price was 3.07!

How can the difference be so large w.r.t btct?

[Mabsark]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

[Eric Muyser]

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that.  I typically see a rise right before dividend...

Not sure which stock you're watching but Burnside's AM on BTCT does just this, maybe not week I didn't watch it. First week at 2.5 it was like 2.5->2.8(12h before div)->2.6(1h before div)->2.45(after div)->2.5. Next 3 weeks were less dramatic, like rise to 2.6 back to 2.48 then 2.5, but still a 0.1 profit per share on that.

[twentyseventy]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

[maxmint]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit it from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

There's an important difference between mining shares and actual mining hardware: you (most likely) will be able to sell your ASICMINER share one year from now but you won't be able to sell your BFL miner at that time (because of increasing difficulty). One year from now, a 5 GH/s BFL miner will just be scrap metal while an ASICMINER share will still be worth something.

So I think it does not make sense to compare these two.

[Eric Muyser]

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

[velacreations]

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow!  bitfunder last price was 3.07!

How can the difference be so large w.r.t btct?

different exchanges, people waiting to move coins to arbitrage.