ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[chriswilmer]

I'm curious why the share price went (very slightly) up, even though the divs were confirmed to keep sinking. Any idea/opinion?
I wonder if the "dry period" for the next months has been already fully integrated by the market. I doubt it, I've seen how much the price was correlated to each week dividends... but thus my suprise it doesn't tank further.

It really made no sense that they were so closely correlated in the first place. Do you think AM will pay more than 0.3 btc per share over the next 2-3 years?  Are you patient? If yes to both, you should buy today. If you want to wait for the price to go down you are bottom fishing and it may not work out for you.

The problem with buying today is just that we aren't expecting gen3 until April. That's a huge time interval, in bitcoinland at least, and just more risk.

Dividends weren't that bad this week, to my mind anyway. But if they go down considerably in the next month, so will the share price. Thats why I'm not buying at the moment.

It doesn't matter. By the end of January we might have an update on whether tape out was successful... and if it was then good luck getting sub 0.3 btc shares. Even if increased dividends don't come for many more months, the anticipation will keep creeping in as we get closer.

"End of January we might have an update of whether tape out was successful"

Two bits of risk right there:
1) The date might slip
2) The tape out might not have been successful

That's a month away anyway. Dividends will slip during that month, I'm 99% sure of that. If the price is still around 0.30 then, I'll accept a bottom has been reached and act accordingly. But the price isn't going to shoot up even then.

Put simply, for my money, there is still a big risk of AM going below 0.20 in the next couple of months. And little risk of it going 0.40 or more. So I'm better off not buying yet.

You obviously think otherwise, so buy, buy, buy!

Hah, well to be honest I wish it WOULD go to 0.2 btc (you can verify that I recently bid for shares at that price). All I am really trying to say is that I think it's strange that shares were so closely correlated to the dividends and I don't expect that to continue. My argument cuts both ways though: if the tape out is not successful then I think the shares might go way lower than might be expected based on 30% apr dividends.

[explorer]

Hah, well to be honest I wish it WOULD go to 0.2 btc (you can verify that I recently bid for shares at that price). All I am really trying to say is that I think it's strange that shares were so closely correlated to the dividends and I don't expect that to continue. My argument cuts both ways though: if the tape out is not successful then I think the shares might go way lower than might be expected based on 30% apr dividends.

APR sitting in the 21-22% range now, the lowest in some time. Might just be that nobody is willing to sell cheaper, regardless of winter. Its not like this dry spell is going to take anyone by surprise, so quite possibly priced in. Perhaps it will take bad news to shake it lower. I would prefer good news at any time 

[Lohoris]

Might just be that nobody is willing to sell cheaper, regardless of winter.

Likely.
Many bagholders have already lost so much, that selling now would be pointless anyway (i.e. little difference losing 20BTC and losing 19BTC), so they just keep the shares, just in case (however unlikely) it goes back up to a reasonable amount.

[willBTC]

Might just be that nobody is willing to sell cheaper, regardless of winter.

Likely.
Many bagholders have already lost so much, that selling now would be pointless anyway (i.e. little difference losing 20BTC and losing 19BTC), so they just keep the shares, just in case (however unlikely) it goes back up to a reasonable amount.

“however unlikely”？ Reason ？

[Lohoris]

Might just be that nobody is willing to sell cheaper, regardless of winter.

Likely.
Many bagholders have already lost so much, that selling now would be pointless anyway (i.e. little difference losing 20BTC and losing 19BTC), so they just keep the shares, just in case (however unlikely) it goes back up to a reasonable amount.

“however unlikely”？ Reason ？

The price was so high because there were no competitors: now that there are, there's little chance dividends can raise so much.

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

The price was so high because there were no competitors: now that there are, there's little chance dividends can raise so much.

The price was so "high" because of percentage of the hash pie. Simple as that.

With just a 10% of network belonging to AM in any given time in future ... 2.5 BTC share price is easy.

[Lohoris]

The price was so high because there were no competitors: now that there are, there's little chance dividends can raise so much.

The price was so "high" because of percentage of the hash pie. Simple as that.

With just a 10% of network belonging to AM in any given time in future ... 2.5 BTC share price is easy.

And how could AM achieve such a high %?

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

The price was so high because there were no competitors: now that there are, there's little chance dividends can raise so much.

The price was so "high" because of percentage of the hash pie. Simple as that.

With just a 10% of network belonging to AM in any given time in future ... 2.5 BTC share price is easy.

And how could AM achieve such a high %?

With deploying gen3 in 2014 of course ... unless you think that AM is incapable to produce working 40nm effective chip, everything else is just in place.

[explorer]

The price was so high because there were no competitors: now that there are, there's little chance dividends can raise so much.

The price was so "high" because of percentage of the hash pie. Simple as that.

With just a 10% of network belonging to AM in any given time in future ... 2.5 BTC share price is easy.

And how could AM achieve such a high %?

10% would be about 5x what they have now. X network increase over the next ~4 months.  No reason to believe that much of it wion't be plug and play to a great degree, so deployment should be relatively quick.
   the price was previously bloated by sales revenue, more than hash power. That part can never be so extreme again, but10% should be achievable + some sales =  nice price jump.

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

IMO, there is big difference that AM achieved 10% of network when the total network hash is rate is 10P and 1000P . when the total network is 10P , even AM achieved 25% of network, it still means unstable and high risk, so the Yield rate is so high.  But the total network hashrate is 1000P , even AM achieved 5% of network,  it means far more stable than before which means lower risk, so then people maybe will accept lower yield rate , such as 15% ,10%.  right ? I am not sure...

Yes, could be ... but what can we call "stable" in Bitcoinland

Also higher hashrate = higher expenses = lower margin

[explorer]

IMO, there is big difference that AM achieved 10% of network when the total network hash is rate is 10P and 1000P . when the total network is 10P , even AM achieved 25% of network, it still means unstable and high risk, so the Yield rate is so high.  But the total network hashrate is 1000P , even AM achieved 5% of network,  it means far more stable than before which means lower risk, so then people maybe will accept lower yield rate , such as 15% ,10%.  right ? I am not sure...

Yes, could be ... but what can we call "stable" in Bitcoinland

Also higher hashrate = higher expenses = lower margin

BTC value tends to increase haphazardly with hash rate. I'm not sure this would become a major issue.

[willBTC]

IMO, there is big difference that AM achieved 10% of network when the total network hash is rate is 10P and 1000P . when the total network is 10P , even AM achieved 25% of network, it still means unstable and high risk, so the Yield rate is so high.  But the total network hashrate is 1000P , even AM achieved 5% of network,  it means far more stable than before which means lower risk, so then people maybe will accept lower yield rate , such as 15% ,10%.  right ? I am not sure...

Yes, could be ... but what can we call "stable" in Bitcoinland

Also higher hashrate = higher expenses = lower margin

also higher hashrate means higher BTC prices in the long term.... so it's the "higher expense VS higher BTC price" issue...

[empoweoqwj]

what's with this sneaky upturn in price at havelock? has the bottom been reached already?

[freedomno1]

what's with this sneaky upturn in price at havelock? has the bottom been reached already?

Doc did a weird thing and went up to 9% for a bit but doubt that's why

[empoweoqwj]

Highest price (0.31) since Dec 11th - I know its only 12 days but can't think of any reason off-hand why it should be climbing unless the bottom has been reached.

The big test is if divs really go down in next few weeks. If that doesn't cause a dip, I think we can safely say we are just left with long-term investors / finger-crossers

[conspirosphere.tk]

we are just left with long-term investors / finger-crossers

...and hodlers.  But if it drops back at the 0.1 IPO price I'd probably buy some moar.

[empoweoqwj]

we are just left with long-term investors / finger-crossers

...and hodlers.  But if it drops back at the 0.1 IPO price I'd probably buy some moar.

What's a "hodler"??

[conspirosphere.tk]

What's a "hodler"??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0

it rhymes with "bag-hodler" :-)

[Zubilica]

Highest price (0.31) since Dec 11th - I know its only 12 days but can't think of any reason off-hand why it should be climbing unless the bottom has been reached.

The big test is if divs really go down in next few weeks. If that doesn't cause a dip, I think we can safely say we are just left with long-term investors / finger-crossers

From now on price will rise, bottom was hit

[ThickAsThieves]

what's with this sneaky upturn in price at havelock? has the bottom been reached already?

Doc did a weird thing and went up to 9% for a bit but doubt that's why

Not sure if it's the reason for last week's uptick, but I'm told that AM100 was recommended by some stock guy, Michael Robinson.

He must have a decent following, as I was getting inquiries daily about AM100 last week.