Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

I updated OP with a new list of investor 'base' amounts.  Note the biggest investor's base amount finally increased, due to paying commission, which in turn was due to making new profit for the first time since I started posting these reports.

[wolverine.ks]

anyone view the investor list as a competition? where do you rank this week as compared to last week? who can dethrone the mighty 7702.....

[juhakall]

You can edit your google auth settings to prevent invest/divest/bet/withdraw.  If you turn all those things on then you're pretty much in 'read-only' mode.

Please, make it possible to require 2FA for changing the emergency withdrawal address & contact email too. I feel really uncomfortable with the way those textboxes work anyway, since one could even accidentally input something there, and have the contents changed without any confirmation.

BTW, it's neat that you can actually remove the 2FA requirement from login. Now I don't ever have to enter the code on the computer I use to monitor my investment.

[RationalSpeculator]

anyone view the investor list as a competition? where do you rank this week as compared to last week? who can dethrone the mighty 7702.....

Yes, it's interesting to watch

[negerkolle]

I posted my most recent thoughts here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242962.msg2815837#msg2815837

I'm on the fence about it at the moment, and so won't make any change in the immediate future.  I will probably experiment in the future.

As a smaller investor I just wanted to say I agree 100% with those thoughts. Also thank you for running this brilliant just-dice  that gives us smaller guys a chance to grow or coins

[dance4x]

I was looking through my account today and noticed that my emergency withdrawal address was empty. I put an address in there last week. Was there an emergency address reset or something?

[dooglus]

I was looking through my account today and noticed that my emergency withdrawal address was empty. I put an address in there last week. Was there an emergency address reset or something?

I've heard reports of that happening before, and when I looked into it, the database did actually contain the emergency address.  I don't know why it's not showing up on your screen.

What's your account number?  (pm me if you don't want to say it here)

[dooglus]

Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:

0.0001%   0.0002 (      2 /  1014500)  197.14%
 0.0010%   0.0000 (      0 /    27898)    0.00%
 0.0100%   0.0195 (      2 /    10232)  195.47%
 0.1000%   0.1046 (     34 /    32493)  104.64%
 0.7920%   0.7897 (     91 /    11524)   99.70%
 0.9900%   1.0450 (    163 /    15598)  105.56%
 1.0000%   1.0128 (   2918 /   288098)  101.28%
 1.5000%   1.7034 (    177 /    10391)  113.56%
 1.6000%   1.6021 (    267 /    16666)  100.13%
 2.0000%   2.1232 (   1208 /    56894)  106.16%
 2.4750%   2.7755 (    408 /    14700)  112.14%
 2.7500%   2.6493 (    279 /    10531)   96.34%
 3.0000%   2.8873 (    638 /    22097)   96.24%
 3.9600%   3.7136 (    667 /    17961)   93.78%
 4.0000%   4.0446 (  14927 /   369059)  101.12%
 4.1250%   4.2604 (   1414 /    33189)  103.28%
 4.5000%   4.6285 (   1697 /    36664)  102.86%
 4.9500%   4.9804 (  12668 /   254359)  100.61%
 5.0000%   5.0414 (   8957 /   177669)  100.83%
 6.1875%   6.1245 (   2413 /    39399)   98.98%
 8.2500%   8.3051 (   3237 /    38976)  100.67%
 8.4126%   8.5661 (   6225 /    72670)  101.82%
 9.0000%   8.9769 (  11478 /   127862)   99.74%
 9.9000%  10.0373 (  12103 /   120580)  101.39%
10.0000%   9.9937 ( 445492 /  4457711)   99.94%
11.0000%  10.9601 (  16411 /   149734)   99.64%
12.0000%  12.0225 (   2672 /    22225)  100.19%
12.2222%  12.2281 (   3486 /    28508)  100.05%
12.3750%  12.3383 (  89148 /   722531)   99.70%
14.1400%  14.0661 (  19502 /   138645)   99.48%
14.1426%  14.2449 (   1797 /    12615)  100.72%
14.1429%  14.3587 (   2277 /    15858)  101.53%
15.0000%  14.9378 (   3217 /    21536)   99.59%
16.0000%  15.9314 (   1607 /    10087)   99.57%
16.5000%  16.5450 (  27314 /   165089)  100.27%
17.9900%  17.9268 (  22655 /   126375)   99.65%
18.9900%  19.0439 (   4629 /    24307)  100.28%
19.8000%  19.8489 (  30768 /   155011)  100.25%
20.0000%  20.1069 (  56303 /   280018)  100.53%
23.0000%  23.1202 (   2715 /    11743)  100.52%
24.0000%  23.8618 (   9963 /    41753)   99.42%
24.5000%  24.2011 (   4150 /    17148)   98.78%
24.7500%  24.8459 (  18900 /    76069)  100.39%
25.0000%  25.0290 (  48379 /   193292)  100.12%
26.0000%  25.9508 (  22176 /    85454)   99.81%
30.0000%  30.0167 (  70609 /   235232)  100.06%
32.0000%  32.1967 (  13068 /    40588)  100.61%
33.0000%  33.0236 ( 191353 /   579444)  100.07%
33.3333%  33.3778 (  80777 /   242008)  100.13%
35.0000%  35.0552 ( 308135 /   878999)  100.16%
39.0000%  38.8207 (  18658 /    48062)   99.54%
39.6000%  39.5171 (  37874 /    95842)   99.79%
40.0000%  39.9578 (  64891 /   162399)   99.89%
41.2500%  41.3686 (   5737 /    13868)  100.29%
42.0000%  42.2562 (  29824 /    70579)  100.61%
43.0000%  42.9035 (  14821 /    34545)   99.78%
44.0000%  44.0615 (  22604 /    51301)  100.14%
45.0000%  44.9605 ( 173839 /   386648)   99.91%
45.5000%  45.2506 (   6698 /    14802)   99.45%
46.0000%  45.8192 ( 112094 /   244644)   99.61%
46.3483%  46.1318 (  30530 /    66180)   99.53%
46.3800%  46.9585 (   7349 /    15650)  101.25%
46.5000%  45.6302 (   8834 /    19360)   98.13%
46.5800%  47.1283 (   5867 /    12449)  101.18%
46.6800%  46.4351 (  13397 /    28851)   99.48%
46.8000%  47.3237 (  28708 /    60663)  101.12%
47.0000%  47.2146 (  31978 /    67729)  100.46%
47.1429%  46.8395 (   8277 /    17671)   99.36%
47.5000%  47.9066 (   6751 /    14092)  100.86%
48.0000%  47.8328 (  64768 /   135405)   99.65%
48.5000%  48.6159 (  23358 /    48046)  100.24%
48.8100%  48.8479 ( 101417 /   207618)  100.08%
49.0000%  49.0585 ( 257060 /   523987)  100.12%
49.2000%  49.2900 (   5415 /    10986)  100.18%
49.5000%  49.4826 (7148473 / 14446427)   99.96%
49.9000%  49.9445 (  15302 /    30638)  100.09%
50.0000%  49.9687 ( 782017 /  1565015)   99.94%
51.0000%  50.9285 (  94919 /   186377)   99.86%
55.0000%  54.7119 (  17812 /    32556)   99.48%
60.0000%  59.9535 ( 113929 /   190029)   99.92%
62.0000%  61.4558 (   9093 /    14796)   99.12%
65.0000%  64.9468 (  30060 /    46284)   99.92%
66.0000%  65.9256 ( 186665 /   283145)   99.89%
66.4430%  66.7673 (  25210 /    37758)  100.49%
70.0000%  69.4754 (  34489 /    49642)   99.25%
70.0141%  69.2011 (   6990 /    10101)   98.84%
70.5000%  70.5446 ( 233032 /   330333)  100.06%
70.7100%  70.7876 (  50691 /    71610)  100.11%
71.0000%  70.9901 (  24909 /    35088)   99.99%
73.0000%  72.9080 (   8216 /    11269)   99.87%
75.0000%  74.8953 ( 120007 /   160233)   99.86%
79.2000%  79.4727 (  40694 /    51205)  100.34%
80.0000%  80.0375 ( 536554 /   670378)  100.05%
82.5000%  82.5868 ( 118422 /   143391)  100.11%
84.0000%  83.9911 (  17282 /    20576)   99.99%
85.0000%  84.8832 (  93689 /   110374)   99.86%
86.0000%  85.7062 (  16591 /    19358)   99.66%
87.0000%  86.9749 (  91114 /   104759)   99.97%
87.7700%  87.7617 (  10355 /    11799)   99.99%
87.7779%  87.7891 (1587449 /  1808252)  100.01%
87.7790%  87.3803 (  18619 /    21308)   99.55%
88.0000%  88.0235 ( 213104 /   242099)  100.03%
90.0000%  90.0060 (1591265 /  1767955)  100.01%
91.6666%  92.0482 (   9851 /    10702)  100.42%
94.2857%  94.2412 (  42303 /    44888)   99.95%
95.0000%  94.8751 (  65701 /    69250)   99.87%
95.1923%  95.1306 (  57691 /    60644)   99.94%
96.0000%  95.8962 (  38977 /    40645)   99.89%
97.0000%  97.0465 (  12256 /    12629)  100.05%
98.0000%  98.0235 ( 158954 /   162159)  100.02%

                                        102.59%

I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.

Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason.  1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each.  Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%.  Nice and tidy result. 

So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll.  If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.

[jerfelix]

Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:

0.0001%   0.0002 (      2 /  1014500)  197.14%


                                        102.59%

I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.

Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason.  1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each.  Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%.  Nice and tidy result. 

So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll.  If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.

That explains it very well!

Quick!  The site has been paying out long shots at twice the expected rate.  Get in there and bet long shots everyone!


Thanks for producing this chart.

[dooglus]

That explains it very well!

Quick!  The site has been paying out long shots at twice the expected rate.  Get in there and bet long shots everyone!


Thanks for producing this chart.

No problem.

I made another list, in which only one of the two 0.0001% bets hit.

The first line looks like:

 0.0001%   0.0001 (      1 /  1014500)   98.57%

and the last line is:

                                         99.94%

[nimda]

Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason [...]

So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll.  If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.

Woohoo!
Nimda: Screwing Things Up since 2001.

[infested999]

Code:

 2.4750%   2.7755 (    408 /    14700)  112.14%

2.475% bet confirmed OP, everybody bet!

[Hannah]

Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:

0.0001%   0.0002 (      2 /  1014500)  197.14%


                                        102.59%

I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.

Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason.  1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each.  Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%.  Nice and tidy result. 

So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll.  If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.

That explains it very well!

Quick!  The site has been paying out long shots at twice the expected rate.  Get in there and bet long shots everyone!


Thanks for producing this chart.

https://i.imgur.com/TzpxBbW.png

[nimda]

That would be a lot more astonishing, Hannah, if you weren't betting on crazy low odds.

[Hannah]

It's expected, just an example of long shot odds betting

& she does have 10 + years to get it right: https://sites.google.com/site/hannahlogo/home

[wolverine.ks]

what about special rewards for bettors that do exceptionally well or exceptionally bad?

if you wager large amounts you get free rolls or better odds...

of you get a really bad beat maybe you get a free roll?

[Lohoris]

what about special rewards for bettors that do exceptionally well or exceptionally bad?

if you wager large amounts you get free rolls or better odds...

of you get a really bad beat maybe you get a free roll?

It would make sense as a general idea, but it should be designed with extreme care, in order to avoid people being able to game it.

[bobboooiie]

what about special rewards for bettors that do exceptionally well or exceptionally bad?

if you wager large amounts you get free rolls or better odds...

of you get a really bad beat maybe you get a free roll?

The thing is this would be obvious thing to do with any normal casino/betting site but in JD case its kinda unique since all the lost money would be spread across investors.

[wolverine.ks]

could you give an example of how to game it?


I've heard a lot of people complain about bad beats, should they be rewarded for sticking with JD even after a series of unlucky rolls?

[dooglus]

could you give an example of how to game it?


I've heard a lot of people complain about bad beats, should they be rewarded for sticking with JD even after a series of unlucky rolls?

The problem is that with a lot of strategies people use, they ONLY lose when they get a very unlucky sequence of losses.  They make a fraction of a coin over and over for hours, and then hit a very unlucky run and give it all back.  Sometimes they don't even give it all back, just some of it.  In the long run they give it all back and 1% extra.  That's the house edge at work.

If we aren't careful, we end up giving them more than that 1% back, and then the house is running at a loss.

And if we give less than 1% back, it's pretty meaningless.  Guy just lost 100 BTC after hitting a bunch of losses in a row and we give him 0.5 BTC back - is he going to be pleased?  Probably not - he's been making hundreds of large bets for hours and that 0.5 BTC means nothing to him.

That's the problem with running at such a small house edge.  Some of the time the house makes no profit at all, and when it does, it's such a small percentage of turnover that there's not much left to use in promotions.  I wonder sometimes whether it would be more attractive to gamblers if we doubled the house edge and ran more promotions with the extra profit.  Hopefully they understand that 1% is a good deal, and that that's enough.