Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

Can you clarify what the definitions are of each of the lines? I'm not altogether clear as to what they exactly mean.

1%, 1% / 3900 BTC, Profit

Yeah.  The profit line is the total amount the site has won from gamblers since launch.  So it's also how much the investors would be up if I didn't charge commission.

The 1% line shows 1% of the total amount wagered.  The site has a 1% house edge, and so the 1% line is where we would expect the profit line to be.  As you can see, we're nowhere near it, due to a bad run against "celeste" early on.

The "1% - 3900" line is parallel to the 1% line, but 3900 BTC lower.  After being 4k down, we expect to stay 4k down.  The law of large numbers says that profits will approach 1% given long enough, but that's not because the 4k shortfall gets recovered, it's because the 4k shortfall becomes increasingly insignificant as the profits increase.  Plotting the 1% line on all the charts would cause lots of the detail to be lost, so I draw in a parallel line, closer to the actual profit which allows you to see how we're doing this week relative to how we 'should' be doing.

Is that clear?  I can try again if not.

[mindragon]

Is that clear?  I can try again if not.

Perfect! Thanks! I had no idea about the celeste incident or anything like that. From what I can see, you are following the 1% curve almost dead on. Amazing stuff!

It's extraordinarily rare to find something where you can see actual math in action.

If these graphs are not on your site already, please do post them from time to time so that math junkies like me can read them

Regards,

MD

[dooglus]

Is that clear?  I can try again if not.

Perfect! Thanks! I had no idea about the celeste incident or anything like that. From what I can see, you are following the 1% curve almost dead on. Amazing stuff!

It's extraordinarily rare to find something where you can see actual math in action.

If these graphs are not on your site already, please do post them from time to time so that math junkies like me can read them

They're not on the site, but I generate them on an almost daily basis and post them in the on-site chat when asked.

'celeste' is by far the biggest player we've had so far.  For a while he was betting 222 BTC (close to the max bet at 2x at the time) over and over, and at one point hit it 9 times in a row, costing us around 2000 BTC of profit in just a few seconds.  There's a screenshot in this article:

http://coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/

(Don't mind the sensational headline - I accidentally forgot to debit his account 1300 when he cashed out.  He then proceeded to play and lose the 1300 that shouldn't have been in his account, and I 'rolled back' the bets he made, so effectively those bets never happened and nothing was lost)

[cowbay]

Doog, could you post the invested amount over time as well?  It seems that it has been tapering out due to lack of action (and corresponding lack of meaningful return) recently.  Thanks!

[mindragon]

'celeste' is by far the biggest player we've had so far.  For a while he was betting 222 BTC (close to the max bet at 2x at the time) over and over, and at one point hit it 9 times in a row, costing us around 2000 BTC of profit in just a few seconds.  There's a screenshot in this article:

Time and time again, I get folks that say "I lost 14 times in a row, that's 'statistically' impossible!"

Sigh. Each time that one play a game, one has those exact odds to win or lose. In the instance of 50/50 odds, one has a 1 and 2 chance of winning. Just like in the lotto, one could buy 99% of all the available tickets and think that you have a sure fire win. One way to consider the true odds is that each ticket stands alone in a chance of winning. It is actually incorrect math to take all the tickets in one's possession combined and to state that you has a 99% chance of winning. It is still mathematically possible for that 1 out of a 100 ticket to win the lotto. It is also still mathematically possible for that 1 out of a 100 ticket to win the lotto ten times in a row.

For the folks that want a really, really, really good study on how this math works: this is a great read.

What I like about the Just-Dice site is that the majority of the basis of the math behind the site is completely exposed. Really good stuff!

MD

[dooglus]

Doog, could you post the invested amount over time as well?  It seems that it has been tapering out due to lack of action (and corresponding lack of meaningful return) recently.  Thanks!

I didn't ever plot that data.  Mostly because it would look very much like this:

  http://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86

That's the cold wallet address, where the majority of the invested coins are stored.  The rest, which I need for day-to-day withdrawals are elsewhere, but a chart of invested amount over time would look very similar to that chart.

[cowbay]

Thanks doog, indeed that is a very close approximation of the amount invested. 

Hope more action comes to the site 

[bbxx]

Doog, could you post estimated profit for one year?
If i invest 100 btc how much i would get after year from now?
I know, 1% surebet, but how calculate it using time units?

[willphase]

Doog, could you post estimated profit for one year?
If i invest 100 btc how much i would get after year from now?
I know, 1% surebet, but how calculate it using time units?

current daily betting is around 5000 (source)

this means 50 BTC income each day (1% of 5000), on average.  This profit is split over an investment of 54000. so if you invest 100BTC then you expect to earn

50 * (100 / 54000) per day = 0.09 BTC a day, minus the house cut of 10%.  Compound this over a year and you should expect to get around 36BTC.  This assumes no-one invests or divests, and the amount of BTC being wagered remains constant, and the house edge of 1% is maintained.

Will

[bbxx]

Doog, could you post estimated profit for one year?
If i invest 100 btc how much i would get after year from now?
I know, 1% surebet, but how calculate it using time units?

current daily betting is around 5000 (source)

this means 50 BTC income each day (1% of 5000), on average.  This profit is split over an investment of 54000. so if you invest 100BTC then you expect to earn

50 * (100 / 54000) per day = 0.09 BTC a day, minus the house cut of 10%.  Compound this over a year and you should expect to get around 36BTC.  This assumes no-one invests or divests, and the amount of BTC being wagered remains constant, and the house edge of 1% is maintained.

Will

Thanks
So if investors deinvest 26kbtc annual profit will be 72%, very nice.
Please reduce your investment, guys

[Progressive]

Different example: if the invested amount is 54000 and the daily wagered average falls to 3000 BTC then the profit is 18.25% p.a. (i.e. 0.05% per day, like some bonds).

[jabetizo]

Is there a way to display all past bets of a certain user ID?

[mechs]

With a current profit of 0.58% and almost 100,000,000 bets and nearly 1 million BTC wagered, you could say the historical house edge is effectively 0.6%

[dooglus]

Is there a way to display all past bets of a certain user ID?

No, but if you need a list of your bets I can provide it to you.

[dooglus]

I added a section at the bottom of the 'invest' tab giving some signature code that can be used on these forums to advertise the site.

Please help advertise the site. The more players we have, the faster your investment will grow. If you have a BitcoinTalk.org forum account, please consider adding the following to your signature there:

Code:

[size=14pt][font=Arial][b][glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  Just-Dice.com  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow]  [glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  1% House Edge Dice Game  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow]  [glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  Play or Invest  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow][/b][/font][/size]

To edit your BitcoinTalk signature, visit https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile then click the "Forum Profile Information" link under "Modify Profile" in the top left. Copy/paste the above code into the "Signature" box, and click "Change profile" at the bottom of the page to save the new signature.

It's in investors' interest to try to attract more players to the site.

[radiumsoup]

I added a section at the bottom of the 'invest' tab giving some signature code that can be used on these forums to advertise the site.

Please help advertise the site. The more players we have, the faster your investment will grow. If you have a BitcoinTalk.org forum account, please consider adding the following to your signature there:

Code:

[size=14pt][font=Arial][b][glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  Just-Dice.com  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow]  [glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  1% House Edge Dice Game  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow]  [glow=#6a6,2,300][url=https://just-dice.com][color=#fff] ♦  Play or Invest  ♦ [/color][/url][/glow][/b][/font][/size]

To edit your BitcoinTalk signature, visit https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile then click the "Forum Profile Information" link under "Modify Profile" in the top left. Copy/paste the above code into the "Signature" box, and click "Change profile" at the bottom of the page to save the new signature.

It's in investors' interest to try to attract more players to the site.

Have you tried an A/B test of "1% house edge" versus "99% payout"? When you go to a casino, the slots never post odds in terms of house edge, they post odds in terms of what the player can hope for ("up to 98.4% payout!", etc.)

[dooglus]

Have you tried an A/B test of "1% house edge" versus "99% payout"? When you go to a casino, the slots never post odds in terms of house edge, they post odds in terms of what the player can hope for ("up to 98.4% payout!", etc.)

I've not, and it's an interesting question.

I don't know of a short yet accurate way of expressing what the 99% would mean.

"up to 99% payout" makes it sound like that's the most you can win.  But some people receive 200% payouts.

"99% expected payout" is mathematically correct, but only for a precise definition of 'expected', which is contrary to the layman's understanding of the word.

SatoshiDice always used to say "over 98% breakeven odds" which is as far as I can tell either completely meaningless or inaccurate.

I guess we could say "99% RTP" and hope people know it stands for Return To Player - but probably not many do.

It's hard for me to know what "most people" would understand best.  I've been around this stuff too long.

It was even suggested we should advertise "0.6% historical house edge", since the house has retained less than 0.6% of the total wagered over the course of 98 million bets...  but that seems a little deceptive.

[willphase]

Have you tried an A/B test of "1% house edge" versus "99% payout"? When you go to a casino, the slots never post odds in terms of house edge, they post odds in terms of what the player can hope for ("up to 98.4% payout!", etc.)

slot machines tend to use the '97% payout' syntax, while table games e.g. craps/blackjack tend to use the '1% house edge' syntax.   I prefer the 1% house edge syntax, personally.

Will

[dooglus]

slot machines tend to use the '97% payout' syntax, while table games e.g. craps/blackjack tend to use the '1% house edge' syntax.   I prefer the 1% house edge syntax, personally.

Will

I think when you're trying to disguise that your slot machine keeps 12% of wagered amount, saying "88% payout" does the trick.

If you're trying to advertise that the payout is good, "1% edge" looks better than "99% payout".

For example, comparing JD to SD:

* 99% vs. 98.1% makes them look similar - both close to 100%, but
* 1% vs. 1.9% makes it look like JD is about twice as good as SD

But maybe that's just me.

[Mitchell]

slot machines tend to use the '97% payout' syntax, while table games e.g. craps/blackjack tend to use the '1% house edge' syntax.   I prefer the 1% house edge syntax, personally.

Will

I think when you're trying to disguise that your slot machine keeps 12% of wagered amount, saying "88% payout" does the trick.

If you're trying to advertise that the payout is good, "1% edge" looks better than "99% payout".

For example, comparing JD to SD:

* 99% vs. 98.1% makes them look similar - both close to 100%, but
* 1% vs. 1.9% makes it look like JD is about twice as good as SD

But maybe that's just me.

I agree with you.