-

[||bit]

Lets speculate some more

FML.

TLDR - The hash rate per bond will go up (maybe)

* All the numbers above are speculative

Maybe indeed.

I didn't say it wouldn't, I'm just pointing out that a) bonds sales might help, they might not, but it's not a given, and b) even when the theoretical hashrate/bond goes up from IPO sales, the dividends still go down in the short-term, where the length of that term is defined by the purchase-to-delivery latency, which at the moment is bonkers.

And finally, the arms race will end. Yes, you want to keep pace with the network ideally, but this is never going to be possible if people are expecting LRM to maintain the share it will have at it's peak, that's daft to expect. Just maintaining the share it has of the network at this moment would be a great result long term.

I think when you factor in difficulty, the dividends won't go up with new bond sales...unless he can get more hashing power per dollar while taking into account difficulty increase. Of course, that goes for profitability, so to speak, where bitcoin value would also need to be taken into account. But...we probably should measure things in bitcoins, since that is what bonds are priced in.

[bigasic]

I think if LRM can keep up with the difficulty when the 30ths comes in would be awesome. But, in reality, that will be tough to do, at least in the short term. I cant wait til that 30ths comes online and it would be great if it came online in the very near future. I guess we will find out soon.....

[bittymitty]

The BTC/USD rate will determine how much hashing power can be purchased and also the profit we get(if we cash out).  

The cost of BTC on July 16th was $93
The USD cost per bond was 93*.15 = 13.95

The cost of BTC now is $140
The USD cost per bond is 140*.18 =  25.2

If BTC hits 200 USD by Dec then its going to be a good christmas

[mmmerlin]

I think if LRM can keep up with the difficulty when the 30ths comes in would be awesome. But, in reality, that will be tough to do, at least in the short term. I cant wait til that 30ths comes online and it would be great if it came online in the very near future. I guess we will find out soon.....

Yes, that would indeed be awesome. It's also the exact thing I said two posts above yours was daft to expect...  

[mmmerlin]

The BTC/USD rate will determine how much hashing power can be purchased and also the profit we get(if we cash out).  

The cost of BTC on July 16th was $93
The USD cost per bond was 93*.15 = 13.95

The cost of BTC now is $140
The USD cost per bond is 140*.18 =  25.2

If BTC hits 200 USD by Dec then its going to be a good christmas

Why? Are a lot of relatives going to be receiving LRM bonds for Christmas?! 

[BKM]

Looks like Dave from Bitfury has added his promisted 400 GH plus more tonight - currently over 4.3 TH with some readings at 4.5. Am curious if this is all from Dave as this represents an increase of up to 700 GH

[||bit]

Looks like Dave from Bitfury has added his promisted 400 GH plus more tonight - currently over 4.3 TH with some readings at 4.5. Am curious if this is all from Dave as this represents an increase of up to 700 GH

I wonder if this means the order for hardware was placed recently.

[bigasic]

looks like christmas will come early.. Your doing a great job Lat_Rat.... I think were going to look back in a few weeks and realize that .17 a bond was a GREAT deal......

[mmmerlin]

Looks like Dave from Bitfury has added his promisted 400 GH plus more tonight - currently over 4.3 TH with some readings at 4.5. Am curious if this is all from Dave as this represents an increase of up to 700 GH

I think ~700 is about right for the extra from what I remember...

[sparky999]

holding steady at 4.55Th going to be a bumper dividend this week

[M31]

Lab_Rat:

Are you able to make the 'hashrate per bond value' a function of 'Hashrate' such that it also yields a dynamic output?

[mmmerlin]

Lab_Rat:

Are you able to make the 'hashrate per bond value' a function of 'Hashrate' such that it also yields a dynamic output?

Firstly, that will make it become wildly fluctuating, which is a bit of a problem, and secondly, is dividing by 50k really so difficult?

Personally, I would rather he spent his time doing pretty much everything else before updating that website, but that's just me.

[M31]

Lab_Rat:

Are you able to make the 'hashrate per bond value' a function of 'Hashrate' such that it also yields a dynamic output?

Firstly, that will make it become wildly fluctuating, which is a bit of a problem, and secondly, is dividing by 50k really so difficult?

Personally, I would rather he spent his time doing pretty much everything else before updating that website, but that's just me.

Good points mmmerlin.

I was thinking of this more from the perspective of a noob showing up to LRM and seeing the readout.

Keeping the decimal places where they are works, as in 58MH/s, and would not wildly fluctuate in comparison to the total rate unless the total rate is changing a great deal.

Make it super simple:  "1 Bond currently equals 314MH/s" for example.  If bounce is an issue, take an average, or run an algorithm that keeps the readout the same unless a certain positive or negative delta is reached, but I actually enjoy watching the rate going up and down.

Of course, for us the calculations are easy as you say.

Regarding the time factor.  Yes: only if LR has a moment, and it's not even a priority in the slightest, but in the long run it might actually save time, since he's doing the calculation and edit by hand right now.

[mmmerlin]

Lab_Rat:

Are you able to make the 'hashrate per bond value' a function of 'Hashrate' such that it also yields a dynamic output?

Firstly, that will make it become wildly fluctuating, which is a bit of a problem, and secondly, is dividing by 50k really so difficult?

Personally, I would rather he spent his time doing pretty much everything else before updating that website, but that's just me.

Good points mmmerlin.

I was thinking that keeping the decimal places where they are, for example 58MH/s rather than .05834879GH/s would make it easy for a noob to read when hitting LR's site for the first time.

Remove what Lab keep from the calculations, and make it super simple:  "1 Bond currently equals 314MH/s" for example.  If bounce is an issue, take an average, but I actually enjoy watching the rate going up and down.

Of course, for us the calculations are easy as you say.

Regarding the time factor.  Yes: only if LR has a moment, and in the long run it might actually save time, since he's doing the calculation and edit by hand right now.

True. And he is already implementing a moving average on the hashrate as that is quite worthwhile as it's pretty hard to gauge at the moment...

[||bit]

I spoke with Dave Monday and everything was better than expected.  Should have some more solidified dates that I will be able to pass on to you guys (and gals) soon.

Should have some good news tomorrow and some even better news within 2 weeks (Not a BFL pun)

How was the discussion with Dave better than expected? I hope that means hardware will be received in September

What was the good news? Was it the increased hash rate to 4.5TH? And was that due to Dave's contribution?

[nwfella]

I spoke with Dave Monday and everything was better than expected.  Should have some more solidified dates that I will be able to pass on to you guys (and gals) soon.

Should have some good news tomorrow and some even better news within 2 weeks (Not a BFL pun)

How was the discussion with Dave better than expected? I hope that means hardware will be received in September

What was the good news? Was it the increased hash rate to 4.5TH? And was that due to Dave's contribution?

I'm seeing closer to ~4.2TH

Although I did see it as high as 4.7 early this morning

[BKM]

I spoke with Dave Monday and everything was better than expected.  Should have some more solidified dates that I will be able to pass on to you guys (and gals) soon.

Should have some good news tomorrow and some even better news within 2 weeks (Not a BFL pun)

How was the discussion with Dave better than expected? I hope that means hardware will be received in September

What was the good news? Was it the increased hash rate to 4.5TH? And was that due to Dave's contribution?

I'm seeing closer to ~4.2TH

Although I did see it as high as 4.7 early this morning

3.3 Now - hopefully that is a failover to EMC or reporting issue rather than an actual drop in hash rate

[||bit]

I was bullish before, but am leaning kind of bearish now about LRM. Bond liquidity is miserable. No significant demand to buy LRM bonds even at it's initial lowest price. Bond holders with more than a few bonds are practically stuck holding. That is, unless they don't mind to sell with a >90% loss. I suppose this is the nature of start-ups, and that the only significant demand from here forward will be from the limited few willing to buy and hold for a year (if the mining plan is seen as sustainable) And I admit sustainability is where I have the most doubts. If the mining plan isn't sustainable, it seems it's going to be a long term loss to all investors.

If anyone can crunch the numbers and show how the plan will provide a full ROI (based on bitcoins traded for bonds) and/or be sustainable, then please do. Feel free to even assume some kind of large discounts for hardware purchased (I hope LR got a big discounts from suppliers based on the amounts being spent). But if you have to assume bitcoin value goes up to see an ROI, then you've only achieved an ROI based on fiat. So, assume a constant bitcoin value of about $140 from here forward.

[mmmerlin]

I was bullish before, but am leaning kind of bearish now about LRM. Bond liquidity is miserable. No significant demand to buy LRM bonds even at it's initial lowest price. Bond holders with more than a few bonds are practically stuck holding. That is, unless they don't mind to sell with a >90% loss. I suppose this is the nature of start-ups, and that the only significant demand from here forward will be from the limited few willing to buy and hold for a year (if the mining plan is seen as sustainable) And I admit sustainability is where I have the most doubts. If the mining plan isn't sustainable, it seems it's going to be a long term loss to all investors.

If anyone can crunch the numbers and show how the plan will provide a full ROI (based on bitcoins traded for bonds) and/or be sustainable, then please do. Feel free to even assume some kind of large discounts for hardware purchased (I hope LR got a big discounts from suppliers based on the amounts being spent). But if you have to assume bitcoin value goes up to see an ROI, then you've only achieved an ROI based on fiat. So, assume a constant bitcoin value of about $140 from here forward.

Lol, yes, any analysis has to assume constant bitcoin value, otherwise you can just buy bitcoin. That wouldn't be a return from LRM, that's just currency speculation.

It's also quite ironic that the main thing that's made you want to sell is the fact that you can't...

LRM was always a long term proposition, and the liquidity will return as soon as there is a) some news (hint hint LR  ) and b) the hashrate gets the big boost that's around the corner.

[bigasic]

i think you will see a significant change when LRM gets the hashrate that is expected soon. At least I hope so..