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[||bit]

I have an automated bitcoin trading bot that does  quite well, and it only does about 70 trades a year, well, It just triggered a buy last night (It could hold on to this buy for weeks)... so, maybe your theory is correct on your bitcoin price analysis.. I hope so, anyways....

The price pattern has a few traits that I like.

If you look over the one year chart, you see a giant dip from end of May to late August. It wasn't as gradual a decline to the bottom as I would like, but it's not terrible. Also, the rising side of the dip is more bowl-like..which is good, imo. Then another pattern following this giant dip that is a relatively mild pullback and is now forming a tightening ascending triangle. Combined, it's reminiscent of a "cup and handle" pattern. Which is probably one of the more coveted price patterns to find in charting.

I think a significant price drop is the least likely outcome, and that there is a near toss-up between staying relatively flat and inclining over the next month. But with a slight bias to an inclining price... especially with the triangular pattern in the "handle" of the "cup".

Cup and Handle pattern. See here: http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp



Ascending triangle pattern. See here: http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts5.asp



Compare to Bitcoin from end of May to present for Cup and Handle. And note that the handle (in September) is developing into an ascending triangle:



From that, you can see why breaking above $148 to $150 would be quite bullish. Note the cluster of resistance from early April around the price of $180. At least three days there show a strong reaction to $180 as either a high, low, opening or closing price. There are probably plenty of people that bought at those prices that will want out if prices reach there again (i.e. anticipate selling pressure there). Keep that in mind. Now, note the leg from the bottom, mid July(~$65), to the recent peak(~$148). That is about an $80 range. Legs seem to tend to repeat in size and duration in a steady bull market. If that same leg were to happen again from the developing base(~$137), or recent low(~$120) since the peak, it would run bitcoin up to $200 to $220 on Mt.Gox. However, that cluster of resistance around $180 seems quite strong, and $180 isn't toooo far from $200. So, $180 seems like another place to develop some sideways movement, maybe there, another ascending wedge [EDIT: triangle, not wedge] will develop. In either case, it might be a good time to trade out of bitcoins (if trading), and wait to see how the market develops.

[1714605259]

1714605259

[mmmerlin]

...it would run bitcoin up to $200 to $220 on Mt.Gox. However, that cluster of resistance around $180 seems quite strong, and $180 isn't toooo far from $200. So, $180 seems like another place to develop some sideways movement, maybe there, another ascending wedge will develop. In either case, it might be a good time to trade out of bitcoins (if trading), and wait to see how the market develops.

Also, $180 would probably be the "real" price corresponding to a MtGox price of $200

(expect the gap to widen in $, i.e. maintain a fixed ratio between MtGox and other exchanges as prices rise, as the exchange differential is an expression of perceived risk in MtGox and therefore a scale-factor not an absolute difference).

Anywho - this is going wildly off topic...

[bigasic]

Lab rat should add a forum on the labratmining.com site..  There are a lot of good, free ones..

[a2offrb]

Difficulty increased by 125% in the past 30 days.

Increase is only 71%. Do your homework.

Sorry, I already did, and will even help you with yours....

Recorded difficulty values can be seen here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc#gid=0



Note that current difficulty is actually 148,819,200

Now, calculate the percentage increase from 65,750,060 to 148,819,200

Sorry, my mistake.

[||bit]

Sorry, my mistake.

No problem. I also thought it was averaging 70% a month not too long ago. I think it was because I was thinking about difficulty going up about every two weeks. However, about every ten days is more accurate.

[M31]

Lab rat should add a forum on the labratmining.com site..  There are a lot of good, free ones..

dooferorg has set up a shoutbox at https://cryptobox.pw/

It's fully custom (he wrote it from scratch) and he's adding new features constantly. 

As BFL trails off, I'm hoping some of the regulars from there head over.  Maybe a forum as well one of these days??

I've suggested that Lab put a link to it so he can avoid the hassle of running a shoutbox on site.

Would be great to see you there!

[bittymitty]

News post

"The current hashrate the company has in hand is ~4.35TH with 800GH being added by Dave of BitFury. This totals to ~5.15TH currently mining with an estimated 16-18TH incoming within the next couple weeks. This order of 16-18TH will be followed close behind with another 6-10TH."

If I add up all the hashing power sticking with the highest estimate I get 32TH (not including Dave's rate as this is temporary).

Would this total amount be hashing sometime in November all going well?

Will the 2 week BTC fund then add on top of this rate?  Will the BFL order also be on top ?

[bigasic]

News post

"The current hashrate the company has in hand is ~4.35TH with 800GH being added by Dave of BitFury. This totals to ~5.15TH currently mining with an estimated 16-18TH incoming within the next couple weeks. This order of 16-18TH will be followed close behind with another 6-10TH."

If I add up all the hashing power sticking with the highest estimate I get 32TH (not including Dave's rate as this is temporary).

Would this total amount be hashing sometime in November all going well?

Will the 2 week BTC fund then add on top of this rate?  Will the BFL order also be on top ?

Thats how i understand it... if we are giving up our dividends, it makes perfect sense that new equipment will be added. but I really dont know, i wish Zach would give us a little more detail on whats coming, etc...

[DemocraticRepublicOfDave]

Hmm.

Share price steadily dropping.  People who thought they were going to make a quick buck selling off?

Nice buying opportunity for the long term investors through.   

Dave

 

[||bit]

News post

"The current hashrate the company has in hand is ~4.35TH with 800GH being added by Dave of BitFury. This totals to ~5.15TH currently mining with an estimated 16-18TH incoming within the next couple weeks. This order of 16-18TH will be followed close behind with another 6-10TH."

If I add up all the hashing power sticking with the highest estimate I get 32TH (not including Dave's rate as this is temporary).

Would this total amount be hashing sometime in November all going well?

Will the 2 week BTC fund then add on top of this rate?  Will the BFL order also be on top ?

Thats how i understand it... if we are giving up our dividends, it makes perfect sense that new equipment will be added. but I really dont know, i wish Zach would give us a little more detail on whats coming, etc...

It's not exactly clear to me either, but my understanding is that there is the 16-18TH order that is suppose to be received by mid-October. From that hardware, two weeks of the initial mining dividends are fully kept by LRM for new hardware. That is, it's with those funds, that the very next order is placed near/around the beginning of November (this seems to be the 'followed close behind' order of 6-10TH that Labrat is speaking about). That would be a final total ranging from 22TH(minimum) to 28TH(maximum). I'm not sure if that includes the in-hand ~4.35TH or Dave's contribution, so if not, it can be an upper maximum of 33.15TH. It's hard to guess with the bit of secrecy about it. The only other hardware on order is the undisclosed quantity of Monarchs. I could be wrong, but this is how it is coming off to me.

For those that were criticizing me on this topic before, this is why I said that the plan on diverting of dividends will not necessarily place LRM in a position more favorable than was already describe on the LRM website. That is, the estimate was already that 30TH based on bond sales from some time ago.




It's my hope that when he says followed close behind, he is referring to some order of hardware to be made well before the purchase he plans to make with the two weeks of dividends diverted from the hardware expected to be received mid-October.

[sparky999]

Yeah we need some clarification quickly - it reads as though even after this additional purchase we are only gonna have 30Th which should not be the case. We were supposed to have 30Th anyway and this dividend withhold was supposed to add a significant amount more I was expecting 40Th approx after the 2 week dividend hold. If we are only at 32Th after the extra dividends are invested then something doesn't smell right.

Can you please confirm the situation?

[||bit]

Yeah we need some clarification quickly - it reads as though even after this additional purchase we are only gonna have 30Th which should not be the case. We were supposed to have 30Th anyway and this dividend withhold was supposed to add a significant amount more I was expecting 40Th approx after the 2 week dividend hold. If we are only at 32Th after the extra dividends are invested then something doesn't smell right.

Can you please confirm the situation?

For what it's worth, Labrat said he thought about 20% was used for Monarchs. I calculated this to be about $150,000 based on total bond sales, but he disputed that figure/amount was sent to BFL in a prior comment. Maybe it was closer to something like $90,000. Anyway, he said he could not speak anymore on the BFL order (I'm not sure why). Maybe he will clarify on some of this stuff today, it's still very early morning his time.

[Ashitank]

Wonder who is selling the shares I am guessing its not the early adopters.

[moribana]

Wonder who is selling the shares I am guessing its not the early adopters.

Those big holders (3-5k) who probably got shares in return for gear and want to have some cash now.

[bigasic]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

[moribana]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening 

[mmmerlin]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening 

Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records 

[moribana]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening 

Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records 

Right. It is not so hard to store regular snapshots of the asset list and set up a couple of scripts to get the interesting info out of the data.I am sure many people do that.

[mmmerlin]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening 

Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records 

Right. It is not so hard to store regular snapshots of the asset list and set up a couple of scripts to get the interesting info out of the data.I am sure many people do that.

I have been too busy to script it sadly, but it's certainly something I've wanted to get around to, and as you say, I'm sure a lot of people have. It's amazing how much identifiable info you can get out of anonymised data - makes you wonder about bitcoin's anonymity in general really (though it is pretty well known that it's nowhere near as anonymous as people think).

[moribana]

Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.

I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening 

Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records 

Right. It is not so hard to store regular snapshots of the asset list and set up a couple of scripts to get the interesting info out of the data.I am sure many people do that.

I have been too busy to script it sadly, but it's certainly something I've wanted to get around to, and as you say, I'm sure a lot of people have. It's amazing how much identifiable info you can get out of anonymised data - makes you wonder about bitcoin's anonymity in general really (though it is pretty well known that it's nowhere near as anonymous as people think).

Especially with all these people running around on the forums boasting with their most recent transactions  But even if you cannot identify the actual persons it is still amusing to watch the different patterns of how people go about doing trades.