Analysis

[notme]

We're currently @ approx 1060 and have been battling it out for a number of hours now. That is not above the pink line in the chart, it's almost dead on.

Yep... click this and hit the play button:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/LpXrNPkX-progress/

[1715158768]

1715158768

[1715158768]

1715158768

[silverfuture]

We're currently @ approx 1060 and have been battling it out for a number of hours now. That is not above the pink line in the chart, it's almost dead on.

Yep... click this and hit the play button:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/LpXrNPkX-progress/

Thanks!

[silverfuture]

"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang

[prophetx]

"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang

so much for forecasts.... i guess i'll just go tune into the weather channel for my trading forecasts

[Kramerc]

"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang

so much for forecasts.... i guess i'll just go tune into the weather channel for my trading forecasts

Trading is a game of risk and reward and probability, not of actual forecasting. Nobody is infallible, and just when you think you "know" what the market is about to do, that's exactly the time when the market will screw you over.

The easiest thing to do is find out what the dominant trend is, assume a position according to it and then wait.

[notme]

"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang

so much for forecasts.... i guess i'll just go tune into the weather channel for my trading forecasts

Trading is a game of risk and reward and probability, not of actual forecasting. Nobody is infallible, and just when you think you "know" what the market is about to do, that's exactly the time when the market will screw you over.

The easiest thing to do is find out what the dominant trend is, assume a position according to it and then wait.

Good point.  Also yesterday's candle was barely over, and today is far from over.  I wouldn't exclude the possibility of a strong down move just yet.

[Millionero]

I always have a long position.  It's tempting to go all in, but it's important to keep some liquidity.  You should always have some of "the ready," as William S. Burroughs used to call cash. Then you can buy if the price drops. 
But just as important, if there's an extended bear market, you don't want to be in a situation where you have to sell just to make living expenses, when the price is at a bottom.
I got in a situation like that at the bottom of the last bear market.  I was long btc, with no income or savings.  Instead of selling my coins, I started living off credit cards until the market went back up.  It's a good thing I did, because I wouldn't have a stake now if I'd sold my coins then.

[wpalczynski]

Its just insane to have all your liquid assets invested in Bitcoin or any one thing for that matter. 

[silverfuture]

Yeah, forecasting price is similar to weather forecasting.  There are no sure bets as nature (and markets) often do something different than what all the data may suggest. It does work a lot of the time though. If weathermen are predicting 90% chance of severe storms, it might not be a good idea to plan a picnic with the family. It depends on every individual's situation as well. As Millionero suggests, I am in a position where I may have to use some savings so in this case it was better for me to sell a fraction of my holdings near recent highs, hold cash as a sure thing to prevent needing to sell at lower, and then rebuying if trend lines are broken solidly. 

[600watt]

Its just insane to have all your liquid assets invested in Bitcoin or any one thing for that matter. 

some people never had liquid assets other than the few thousand bucks they threw into bitcoin. which turned, after years, into a little fortune. is it really wise for those guys to sell parts of the most successful financial decision ever? and sell for what? shares? gold? silver? crude oil? currencies? government bonds?
on top of this, for a long time bitcoin maximalist hodler who had bought @$100, would it make sense to sell btc to buy back lower in the midst of a multiyear uptrend?

it may be insane to have 100% in btc, but if it works out, the payout is also insane(ly high)

[Millionero]

Its just insane to have all your liquid assets invested in Bitcoin or any one thing for that matter.  

some people never had liquid assets other than the few thousand bucks they threw into bitcoin. which turned, after years, into a little fortune. is it really wise for those guys to sell parts of the most successful financial decision ever? and sell for what? shares? gold? silver? crude oil? currencies? government bonds?
on top of this, for a long time bitcoin maximalist hodler who had bought @$100, would it make sense to sell btc to buy back lower in the midst of a multiyear uptrend?

it may be insane to have 100% in btc, but if it works out, the payout is also insane(ly high)

If you bought 100 coins at $100 each, it would make sense to liquidate some of that now.  If you have a hundred thousand dollars worth of coins that's mostly profit, why cling to every last coin?

[superresistant]

Its just insane to have all your liquid assets invested in Bitcoin or any one thing for that matter. 

some people never had liquid assets other than the few thousand bucks they threw into bitcoin. which turned, after years, into a little fortune. is it really wise for those guys to sell parts of the most successful financial decision ever? and sell for what? shares? gold? silver? crude oil? currencies? government bonds?
on top of this, for a long time bitcoin maximalist hodler who had bought @$100, would it make sense to sell btc to buy back lower in the midst of a multiyear uptrend?
it may be insane to have 100% in btc, but if it works out, the payout is also insane(ly high)

Exactly my case. I would like to diversify but for what ? Everything is shit compared to BTC.
Not to mention the huge tax problem. Converting my BTC to anything else would require me to lose about half of it in taxes and being registered as a money-launderer-terrorist by the government (extreme socialism and paranoia).

If you bought 100 coins at $100 each, it would make sense to liquidate some of that now.  If you have a hundred thousand dollars worth of coins that's mostly profit, why cling to every last coin?

Because no choice really.
The day I cash out, I would have to leave my country for good and never come back.
That is what I am planing to do but right now is too soon, I am not ready.

[molecular]

Because no choice really.
The day I cash out, I would have to leave my country for good and never come back.
That is what I am planing to do but right now is too soon, I am not ready.

can't you do cash-trades? localbitcoins, mycelium localtrader?

[prophetx]

Not to mention the huge tax problem. Converting my BTC to anything else would require me to lose about half of it in taxes and being registered as a money-launderer-terrorist by the government (extreme socialism and paranoia).

If you would like to sell just temporarily you can use BTC as a collateral and open a short position and that probably can't be a taxable event from your old BTC profits.

that means you have to put the coins onto a centralized exchange and wait for the price to fall, then you have to get KYC'ed probably to withdraw them...the coins you withdraw will now have an ID attached to them unless they are mixed.

if he has virgin coins those are even worth more untouched...

[ImI]

rekt

[notme]

rekt

rekt indeed

[silverfuture]

Back to holding coinz it is!   

[neilol-real]

Back to holding coinz it is!   

I'd agree with you if the sentiment wasn't so overwhelmingly positive everywhere I look. Still a few %'s in fiat looking for a pullback ~$900

[ImI]

Back to holding coinz it is!   

I'd agree with you if the sentiment wasn't so overwhelmingly positive everywhere I look. Still a few %'s in fiat looking for a pullback ~$900

Biggest risk is the ETF decision at the moment. The market seems to speculate on an approval which imo wont come. So on 11th march we could see -20% easily.

[silverfuture]

"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang
 

We penetrated the purple deeply with some oomph !