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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919569 times)
Dilla
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October 30, 2015, 08:47:22 PM
 #3941

unless volume picks up this will just end up as a weak double top.

Double top... Where? Recently, or ATH?  Grin billion dollars in volume wasn't enough for you?
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masterluc
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October 30, 2015, 11:44:49 PM
 #3942

I don't see fuel except volume to escape from this trend now with current daily overbought conditions. Even weekly are close to overbought.

If price will escape I'll be much surprised.


Dilla
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October 31, 2015, 01:47:21 AM
 #3943

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?
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October 31, 2015, 02:05:51 AM
 #3944



Nov 1 is decision day for me.

If we're going sideways or stalling on November 1, I will take profits and watch closely.

If we're still going up strongly on November 1, blasting through 350 on Bitstamp, then I'm staying in to see what happens.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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October 31, 2015, 02:10:47 AM
 #3945

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.




Dilla
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October 31, 2015, 05:16:15 AM
 #3946

Thanks Smiley
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yes


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October 31, 2015, 06:52:34 AM
 #3947

Overbought means nothing when bubble. That is the trouble with oscillators when trending. The question is whether Bitcoin is still oscillating or starting a new trend. When in doubt, wait and see.

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Livermore
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October 31, 2015, 09:39:42 AM
Last edit: October 31, 2015, 10:13:33 AM by Livermore
 #3948

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.


The question now is if BTC is going to continue to range at a price 70% below the all time high 2 years ago, or if the bear market is finally over, 2 years of coiled spring price compression is going to explode, and we are entering a new trend.  

If new trend, need to switch to trend/momentum indicators. Because Oscillators, as we saw in 2011 and 2013, can stay MaxOverbought for months and are not useful in that case.


"Wyckoff discovered during this observation period was that when the market began to flatten out after a long decline this would usually lead to an
upward trend for the market."  - How Legendary Traders Made Millions

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October 31, 2015, 12:08:30 PM
 #3949

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

in my opinion bitcoin shits on overbought signals, there's not such thing as overbuying bitcoin.
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October 31, 2015, 12:13:47 PM
 #3950

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.

Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.

Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).

Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.

All of those are close to 2013 top values.






how can all of them be so high after all this sideways trading? That doesnt make any sense at all.

If those signals are reliable we will never break out of $350, which is obviously going to happen pretty soon anyway (before next year at least).
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October 31, 2015, 12:25:41 PM
Last edit: October 31, 2015, 01:00:38 PM by hdbuck
 #3951

Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?

in my opinion bitcoin shits on overbought signals, there's not such thing as overbuying bitcoin.


ahahah true story Grin
masterluc
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October 31, 2015, 12:37:15 PM
 #3952

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

hdbuck
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October 31, 2015, 12:42:40 PM
Last edit: October 31, 2015, 01:09:49 PM by hdbuck
 #3953

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

fake '0-fees' volume?

gee, it completely outperform the volume from the 2013 bubble, i got 3,7+ million spike on the weekly chart Shocked





or do they have some sorta HFT going on there maybe?
masterluc
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October 31, 2015, 12:47:59 PM
 #3954

Huobi and okcoin summary traded 6kk coins this week. This is almost half of all issued bitcoins. Can that be true?

brg444
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October 31, 2015, 01:17:17 PM
 #3955

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

fake '0-fees' volume?

gee, it completely outperform the volume from the 2013 bubble, i got 3,7+ million spike on the weekly chart Shocked

or do they have some sorta HFT going on there maybe?

To be fair I don't believe they were much of a thing back then.

Volume over there certainly rises an eyebrow. We're used to say the volume on Chinese exchanges is fake but what could generate so much "fake" volume is a good question...

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 31, 2015, 01:17:55 PM
 #3956

master, do you trade things other than bitcoin?  does your system of analysis (primarily elliott wave?) work for other assets?  how did you educate yourself on trading?
wpalczynski
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October 31, 2015, 01:19:13 PM
 #3957

Huobi and okcoin summary traded 6kk coins this week. This is almost half of all issued bitcoins. Can that be true?

Seems to be true. The question is what does that mean?  MOON?

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October 31, 2015, 01:21:41 PM
 #3958

master, do you trade things other than bitcoin?  does your system of analysis (primarily elliott wave?) work for other assets?  how did you educate yourself on trading?

I am dedicated to bitcoin. Bitcoin changed my life. No other assets.
sinner
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October 31, 2015, 01:24:19 PM
 #3959

Huobi and okcoin summary traded 6kk coins this week. This is almost half of all issued bitcoins. Can that be true?

its been posted on here or reddit that those are fake numbers cuz no commission trading so people buy/sell to themselves to create fake volume/pump
Pierre 2
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October 31, 2015, 01:26:11 PM
 #3960

So you think this will end as small bubble to return around $270s in mid-week?
I actually think same (if you think like that) there is still no big reason for huge trend.

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