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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923504 times)
cAPSLOCK
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December 23, 2017, 02:52:33 PM
 #5581

Newest:

So, I'm without a computer, in this word. Who will illustrate - I will be grateful.

So here I see further options:
1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two

2. The classic output bitcoin from the bear trap is bluntly up. At 70k. Up to a month

3. Deep correction to strong levels 2-5k. A few years. And up to 100k +

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - how it will close. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.
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yes


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December 23, 2017, 02:57:33 PM
 #5582

Summarised: Moon.

           ▀██▄ ▄██▀
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   ▄███▀  ▄███▀ ▀███▄  ▀███▄
  ███▀  ▄████▌   ▐████▄  ▀███
 ███   ██▀  ██▄ ▄██  ▀██   ███
███   ███  ███   ███  ███   ███
███   ███   ███████   ███   ███
 ███   ███▄▄       ▄▄███   ███
  ███▄   ▀▀█████████▀▀   ▄███
   ▀████▄▄           ▄▄████▀
      ▀▀███████████████▀▀
DeepOnion
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      ▄▄██████████▄▄
    ▄███▀▀      ▀▀█▀   ▄▄
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 ███▌  ▄▄▄▄      ▄███▀   ▄███
▐███  ██████   ▄███▀   ▄███▀
███▌ ███  ███▄███▀   ▄███▀
███▌ ███   ████▀   ▄███▀
███▌  ███   █▀   ▄███▀  ███
▐███   ███     ▄███▀   ███
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cAPSLOCK
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December 23, 2017, 04:22:51 PM
 #5583

Summarised: Moon.

*nod*
Millionero
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December 23, 2017, 05:22:02 PM
 #5584

Option three means a years-long bear market before any chance of mooning, if I read correctly.
BTDT in 2014-15.  I can survive another bear market like it, but I'd prefer not to LOL.
Well, you takes your lumps.  No use complaining.
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December 23, 2017, 05:42:33 PM
 #5585

In terms of probabilities, what percentage would you assign to each scenario?
The third one is scary.
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December 23, 2017, 05:45:23 PM
 #5586

so it's either 70 grand in a few weeks via a couple of methods or a fright from hell and years long wait? i don't like them odds too much. there'd have to be a massive wave of renewed mania to go above where we've been and i ain't sniffing too much out on the horizon right now.

even if this mania did arrive, i wonder how the exchanges are gonna cope considering the state they're in right now.
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December 23, 2017, 05:47:43 PM
 #5587

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.
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December 23, 2017, 05:55:59 PM
 #5588

The only thing I can see as a direct catalyst for the price to increase is the approval of the twins' ETF. Indirectly I think that solving the problem of fees or the launch of LN could help as well.
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December 23, 2017, 06:12:50 PM
 #5589

From my understanding we only enter bear markets if it goes below 10k on our weekly candle (it is over Sunday).
I would feel fairly optimistic if bitcoin wasn't so bloody unpredictable (no relax this weekend either I guess)!
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December 23, 2017, 06:14:47 PM
 #5590

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.
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December 23, 2017, 06:19:33 PM
 #5591

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

 Shocked   Why do you think that?
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December 23, 2017, 06:23:51 PM
 #5592

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

He’s saying if we don’t have a retrace from here for a week we are on sollid ground for 70k as I see it.
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December 23, 2017, 06:38:49 PM
 #5593

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

 Shocked   Why do you think that?


The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.



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December 23, 2017, 06:48:24 PM
 #5594

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

LOL!!
Oh boy! Whatever drugs you use, stop it!  Cheesy
Corrections will happen.Even bear phases will happen.
But 6 years?? Hell no!
Stop writing bullshit pal!
Gab0
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December 23, 2017, 06:59:54 PM
 #5595

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

 Shocked   Why do you think that?


The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.


Thanks for your answer.
I agree that maybe we have not yet seen the top, and that they have been crazy times, but I can not imagine a bear market of 6 years. This is because if we are somewhere in the bottom of the S-bend of adoption, I think we still have a long way to go.
A scenario like the one you describe, a bear market of ~ 6 years, seems to me more indicated in the case that btc loses its market dominance and network effect.

I apologize for the off topic.
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December 23, 2017, 07:21:17 PM
 #5596

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

LOL!!
Oh boy! Whatever drugs you use, stop it!  Cheesy
Corrections will happen.Even bear phases will happen.
But 6 years?? Hell no!
Stop writing bullshit pal!


I guess you will have to live and learn then little Padawan.  Grin
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December 23, 2017, 07:23:20 PM
 #5597

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

 Shocked   Why do you think that?


The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.


Thanks for your answer.
I agree that maybe we have not yet seen the top, and that they have been crazy times, but I can not imagine a bear market of 6 years. This is because if we are somewhere in the bottom of the S-bend of adoption, I think we still have a long way to go.
A scenario like the one you describe, a bear market of ~ 6 years, seems to me more indicated in the case that btc loses its market dominance and network effect.

I apologize for the off topic.

We are near the top imo.

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December 23, 2017, 07:24:29 PM
 #5598

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.
Bitcoinaire
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December 23, 2017, 09:05:45 PM
 #5599

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.
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December 23, 2017, 10:33:31 PM
 #5600

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period. 

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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