Analysis

[European Central Bank]

so it's either 70 grand in a few weeks via a couple of methods or a fright from hell and years long wait? i don't like them odds too much. there'd have to be a massive wave of renewed mania to go above where we've been and i ain't sniffing too much out on the horizon right now.

even if this mania did arrive, i wonder how the exchanges are gonna cope considering the state they're in right now.

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[Bitcoinaire]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

[Gab0]

The only thing I can see as a direct catalyst for the price to increase is the approval of the twins' ETF. Indirectly I think that solving the problem of fees or the launch of LN could help as well.

[ragnar0k]

From my understanding we only enter bear markets if it goes below 10k on our weekly candle (it is over Sunday).
I would feel fairly optimistic if bitcoin wasn't so bloody unpredictable (no relax this weekend either I guess)!

[ImI]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

[Gab0]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

    Why do you think that?

[milkshock100]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

He’s saying if we don’t have a retrace from here for a week we are on sollid ground for 70k as I see it.

[ImI]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

    Why do you think that?

The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.

[Denker]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

LOL!!
Oh boy! Whatever drugs you use, stop it! 
Corrections will happen.Even bear phases will happen.
But 6 years?? Hell no!
Stop writing bullshit pal!

[Gab0]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

    Why do you think that?

The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.

Thanks for your answer.
I agree that maybe we have not yet seen the top, and that they have been crazy times, but I can not imagine a bear market of 6 years. This is because if we are somewhere in the bottom of the S-bend of adoption, I think we still have a long way to go.
A scenario like the one you describe, a bear market of ~ 6 years, seems to me more indicated in the case that btc loses its market dominance and network effect.

I apologize for the off topic.

[ImI]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

LOL!!
Oh boy! Whatever drugs you use, stop it! 
Corrections will happen.Even bear phases will happen.
But 6 years?? Hell no!
Stop writing bullshit pal!

I guess you will have to live and learn then little Padawan. 

[ImI]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

    Why do you think that?

The length and intensity of a bear market depends on the preluding bull market and this bull market is already extreme and will most likely even get a little bit more extreme. Now we have reached the stage of mainstream and also Wallstreet to enter the market. Just think about all the friends and family constantly asking about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies.

Thanks for your answer.
I agree that maybe we have not yet seen the top, and that they have been crazy times, but I can not imagine a bear market of 6 years. This is because if we are somewhere in the bottom of the S-bend of adoption, I think we still have a long way to go.
A scenario like the one you describe, a bear market of ~ 6 years, seems to me more indicated in the case that btc loses its market dominance and network effect.

I apologize for the off topic.

We are near the top imo.

[cAPSLOCK]

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

[Bitcoinaire]

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

[JayJuanGee]

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period. 

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

[mymenace]

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period.  

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

seems to me everyone waiting for the doubling in a week, if it occurs, this indicator has preceded every top

[JayJuanGee]

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period.  

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

seems to me everyone waiting for the doubling in a week, if it occurs, this indicator has preceded every top

Certainly, I am not saying that.  I am saying that BTC performance is 3x to 4x beyond my earlier relatively bullish expectations, and I said that there is still decently high probabilities for up.

I am personally prepared for either price direction, but I just think that the odds are a bit against down, at this time, but no way am I putting any kind of "expected" quantity on the up, because I consider any up or additional UP to be icing on a very tasty cake that we already have and a very likely scenario that not only the cake is going to continue to be tasty, but could become even more tasty - and that is no way expecting any kind of 2x or whatever.. even though I certainly would not be complaining if another 2x were to occur, which also has decent odds, so it seems at the current moment...

TLDR:  what I am saying having good odds of something happening is not the same as expecting that same thing to happen or some variant of that same thing.

[Bitcoinaire]

His latest...




https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[Torque]

Shit anyone thinking that after Bitcoin doing a 19X runup for the year, only to fall 50% and should it stay there for another year is somehow awful and a complete failure, really should rethink their lives.

Or at least their expectations around what they think Bitcoin should do for them. Lol.

[birr]

Nobody wrote any of those things.