[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[joeventura]

Phinnaeus Gage and BCP have been taken into servitude.

They are chained to work benches and are assembling Jalapenos at a rate of 3 per day.

They have not been heard from since.



PG is on the left

[Threader]

More Inaba_josh FUD  https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/4784-hashfast-guaranteeing-items-miner-protection-program-very-very-interesting.html

Quote Originally Posted by BFL_Josh View Post
Who? No one has "gotten their stuff out of the gate" yet except Avalon, BFL and ASICMiner. Bitfury is looking like it may happen, but he has yet to ship in any meaningful quantity, so we'll see on that front. Other than that, zip.



Since when is "gotten their stuff out of the gate" = meaningful quantity?

BFL has been claiming out the gate since April and sending media and few developers a few jalapeno examples for BFL was out the gate?

The Fact that Bitfury have shipped out per their plan since late August and at all is 1000's times better than BFL who never shipped in October 2012 as they planned but 6 months (claimed) later than this.

How BFL easily dismisses Bitfury is no surprise. Pure denial and FUD.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Not sure, but I think I've been drugged and was shipped to Cleveland, in chains in a basement, and now answering to some guy name Castro. There's three of us here. Help!

[joeventura]

More Inaba_josh FUD  https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/4784-hashfast-guaranteeing-items-miner-protection-program-very-very-interesting.html

Quote Originally Posted by BFL_Josh View Post
Who? No one has "gotten their stuff out of the gate" yet except Avalon, BFL and ASICMiner. Bitfury is looking like it may happen, but he has yet to ship in any meaningful quantity, so we'll see on that front. Other than that, zip.



Since when is "gotten their stuff out of the gate" = meaningful quantity?

BFL has been claiming out the gate since April and sending media and few developers a few jalapeno examples for BFL was out the gate?

The Fact that Bitfury have shipped out per their plan since late August and at all is 1000's times better than BFL who never shipped in October 2012 as they planned but 6 months (claimed) later than this.

How BFL easily dismisses Bitfury is no surprise. Pure denial and FUD.

Let's talk percentages:

Asicminer has delivered 100% of all items ordered.

Bitfury delivered 100% of everything ordered.

Avalon has delivered 80% of Miners and 20% of chips

BFL has delivered zero chips so far. What percentage of miners? Maybe 30%?

By the way, BFL bulk chip sales were to be delivered today. Anyone hear about that?

[joeventura]

Not sure, but I think I've been drugged and was shipped to Cleveland, in chains in a basement, and now answering to some guy name Castro. There's three of us here. Help!

LOL

He is alive!!!

[Threader]

Have you been hypnotized by Josh's "Reality Distortion Field" yet?

[PuertoLibre]

Have you been hypnotized by Josh's "Reality Distortion Field" yet?

One does not simply become hypnotized by Josh's "Reality Distortion Field".

[erschiessen]

Not sure, but I think I've been drugged and was shipped to Cleveland, in chains in a basement, and now answering to some guy name Castro. There's three of us here. Help!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8kPqAV_74M

Indroducing BFL_Gimp

[FUKT]

Phinnaeus Gage and BCP have been taken into servitude.

They are chained to work benches and are assembling Jalapenos at a rate of 3 per day.

They have not been heard from since.



PG is on the left

If that is PG on left then 9/10 would bang.

[FUKT]

REVISED Paydates required to ship per day remaining to make the stated September 30, 2013 timeline to clear 65nm product backlog assuming the backlog is to the end of April 2013 as stated by Josh in the SB September 10th, 2013

Jalapeno: 3.8

Little Single: 8.8

Single:.12.9

Mini Rig: 15.6
...... .. . ........
Red = Increasing (bad)...Yellow = no movement (still bad) Green = Improvement (good if it continues to improve)

Jody's Blog Date: 9/10/2013

Assumptions:
These figures are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to APRIL 30, 2013 as confirmed by Josh on September 10th, 2013
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)
Previous update values will scroll to the right in order to show the trend

[BKM]

REVISED Paydates required to ship per day remaining to make the stated September 30, 2013 timeline to clear 65nm product backlog assuming the backlog is to the end of April 2013 as stated by Josh in the SB September 10th, 2013

Jalapeno: 3.8

Little Single: 8.8

Single:.12.9

Mini Rig: 15.6
...... .. . ........
Red = Increasing (bad)...Yellow = no movement (still bad) Green = Improvement (good if it continues to improve)

Jody's Blog Date: 9/10/2013

Assumptions:
These figures are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to APRIL 30, 2013 as confirmed by Josh on September 10th, 2013
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)
Previous update values will scroll to the right in order to show the trend

Wow - talk about efficiency - I was beat at posting my own post! LOL......

Anyways, you can see here that Josh spent some time in the SB tonight providing some degree of additional clarity. While I understand the constraint placed on him and the BFL team as to the use of paydates shipped as the benchmark of progress I still do not agree with it. It belies any empirical measure other than some form of trend analysis which I have attempted to do in this thread. I will continue to update the BFL forum posting and then cross post the results here for the rest of September.

To see the post on the BFL forum with color please go here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post57018

[bcp19]

Not sure, but I think I've been drugged and was shipped to Cleveland, in chains in a basement, and now answering to some guy name Castro. There's three of us here. Help!

Dude, you forgot to tell them what they wanted to hear!!!  The Kool-Aid was Cherry.

[bcp19]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

Glad to hear you are a 'regular' guy.

Please consider the following list of 'to do's'

• Remind anyone you see that we need actual unit production/shipped numbers and that using paydates as a bench mark is completely absurd. It is possible to restore trust but they need to at least give us a reach around as a first step....
  
  
• Tell us if the production manager is a real human. Anytime I ask Josh about the magical end of September clearance of the backlog date he says I will have to ask the elusive Production Manager, Mr Goodacre.
  
  Ask what order date constitutes the end of the backlog.
  
  Give Josh another bag of dicks as I think he ate the other one from Xian. (more likely he had it framed)
  
  

I was early to BFL (PG was searching for someone selling cigarettes and got lost), so I saw the Fed Ex truck pull in and head around back.  I wandered back there and was looking between the building and a semi at the driver carrying ~6 loads into the truck, but felt kind of conspicuous so I headed back tot eh front of the building.  Truck left about 10 min later.  I have to sadly inform PL they were wrong... There was no huge pile of boxes from Friday-Tuesday waiting for us to see.  According to Josh, USPS, UPS, DHL and Fed Ex all normally pickup in the morning, so everything had been sent out by the time PG and I got there.

I did ask Josh about #'s... the only one he gave me though was that my comment in this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3020097#msg3020097 where I said it likely they had shipped closer to 7,000 Jala's that the low ball number the haters use was accurate.  It was closer to 7,000.  I tried.

Did not meet a Goodacre that I remember(maybe PG remembers), but I wasn't actively looking for him so I may have missed his name when introduced.  We did get to have lunch with Dave "The Knife" though... I didn't see any knives in evidence though.

When asked, Josh did comment he was looking at around Apr/May when he made the backlog statement.

The Kool-Aid was great, PG was given a 5 gallon bucket.  Might be why he woke up in Cleveland.....

I'll let you handle the last one... you and Xian (and a couple others) seem to have the phallic obsession here.

[Ytterbium]

I'm still sad no one will bet me 2BTC that BFL won't even catch up on Jalapenos.

What? No one wants to give me free BTC for nothing?

Start a bitbet.

willphase & I already have a gentleman's wager. I was literally just joking & being a smartass. Totally didn't expect someone to take me seriously but he did.

The bet is that BFL won't catch up to the July 6 Jally orders and have the July 6 Jallys on the delivery truck before the end of September.
EDIT: Looks like Jallys have been stuck on Feb 12-14 orders for about a week.

BTW, I've often wondered: WTF is that in your avatar pic?  An Avalon with wires sticking out?  

Could be a plane, train, or automobile.

Huh, are you talking about my avatar?  I don't think it looks anything like a car, plane, train or an Avalon with wires sticking out

And my ignore list grows.

Have had that fellow ignored for over a week. Clearly another multiple account from BFL. Shady people from a shady company.

Good idea.  He's obviously not saying anything of value.

[joeventura]

REVISED Paydates required to ship per day remaining to make the stated September 30, 2013 timeline to clear 65nm product backlog assuming the backlog is to the end of April 2013 as stated by Josh in the SB September 10th, 2013

Jalapeno: 3.8

Little Single: 8.8

Single:.12.9

Mini Rig: 15.6
...... .. . ........
Red = Increasing (bad)...Yellow = no movement (still bad) Green = Improvement (good if it continues to improve)

I appreciate all the math, but based on the lack of movement, and even though BFL is waffling on what backlog they said they would clear (July, May, April whatever)  it is no longer possible for them to make the deadline.

Their efforts are slowing not increasing, 2 product lines have been all but stalled since August, Singles are moving at between 1 and 1.5 pay dates per day.

If I don't have my equipment by the next difficulty increase (chances are nil) I will get my refund.
You should too.

[Threader]

I have a 60 gh single on order (very early winter 2013). My breaking point is Diff at 150 mil where it will take approx two -3 months depending on how fast the diff increases from there to break even.

BFL feels 6-12 months break even is acceptable but I vehemently disagree.

[BTCscraper]

I have a 60 gh single on order (very early winter 2013). My breaking point is Diff at 150 mil where it will take approx two -3 months depending on how fast the diff increases from there to break even.

BFL feels 6-12 months break even is acceptable but I vehemently disagree.

At the rate they're shipping, I wouldn't be surprised if less than half of all the 65nm asic devices ordered will ever break even, even if they're all sent to a cheap-electricity state and hooked up to RaspPi units.

[joeventura]

Latest news from Joshua at BFL:


BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process.

Other products are not outsourced and "we are expanding manufacturing capacity for other lines in house"

"The goal is still to get through April orders by the end of September"

"We will have shipped all 65nm products before we begin shipping Monarch Products"

###end of quotes###

So for those keeping score, the quote that he wanted to get through July by end of September is no longer the deal.

The new deal is "through April" , in my mind, "to April means April 1st, through April means April 30th"

So they have shed a portion of orders to Monarch upgrades, and now moved Jalapenos to a 3rd party.

That leaves LS, Singles and Mini-Rigs to get out.

Still don't see it happening. Just my opinion.

[joeventura]

Nevermind.

New Goal Date per Josh given on Sept 11th 2013 is end of April 2013.

So with 19 days 5 hours left, Josh predicts all back orders to the end of April 2013 cleared.

So just talking about Singles. There are 257 days of orders between August 16th 2012 (current ship date) and April 30th 2013.

There are 16 BFL work days (6 days a week) between now and Sept 30

So everyday starting today, 16.5 pay dates worth of orders have to go out to make the goal on singles.

Not counting LS or Mini-Rigs.

Even Steve says...........

[erschiessen]

MARIPOSA LABORATORIO

Your ASIC bitcoin miner outsource champion.
Costa Rica, 2013 (as soon as Sonny's parole is complete)


edit to add:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mariposa