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Author Topic: [FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September  (Read 69436 times)
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September 18, 2013, 05:59:18 PM
 #461


Send me your bitcoin and I promise that the target is to send you back the double by tomorrow.

Still waiting for quote so that I can stand corrected. How hard can that be?

You're definitely a josh sock puppet

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joeventura (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:02:37 PM
 #462

Listen,

No one said Josh "promised" anything. The purpose of this thread is to show that even on 9/11/2013 Josh did not have enough situational  awareness to know that in less than 3 weeks he was not going to make his estimate of April 30th.

Josh has never made a promise ever. Period.

He has made one failed estimate after another.

On 7/7/2013 he estimated that he would have everything up until today (7/7/13) cleared by the end of September
On 9/11/2013 he revised that estimate to say that when he said "today" he meant all orders until the end of April 2013.

As expected he has already backpeddled from that statement and that is why he got the [FAIL] on his latest "estimate"

I will have my June 2013 ordered KNCMiner device before I get my April ordered BFL device.  JUST SAD.
joeventura (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:07:58 PM
 #463

Send me 1BTC and I estimate that tomorrow I will send you back 2BTC. Good deal?
BFL have been estimating shipping date since 1 year.
Still waiting for quote.
Send me your bitcoin and I promise that the target is to send you back the double by tomorrow.

 I have Rival ignored, so won't be responding to him directly, but hopefully this should suffice. Again, it was never more than an estimate; not disputing that.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283853.0

"We are are working to fulfill our current order backlog as soon as possible. Our current estimate is by September 30 we should have most of our order backlog fulfilled. Your orders should ship in advance of that date."

 What people take issue with, is it speaks to a pattern of consistently making mistakes when producing estimates.

 This has been going on since November 2012 (Earlier than that if you count their first FPGA projects' missteps)

 It's getting tired and pathetic at this point.


It's not mistakes. It's incompetence.  When you make an estimate and you are off on your first estimate by 3 months,
then with 3 weeks to go, you are again going to miss it by a few more months. That is just sheer incompetence.

I am pretty sure if you asked Josh to estimate what they would ship by the end of the week, he would miss it by 50%
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September 18, 2013, 06:12:31 PM
 #464

Josh's performance is not by making honest estimates but influencing current customers and future customers for a positive outcome for BFL. Nothing else matters. Sad but true.
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September 18, 2013, 06:12:41 PM
 #465

No one said Josh "promised" anything.

If you read through this thread you will find your statement to be false. It has been repeatedly stated that this was a hard deadline by several of those posting. I was simply correcting them.

I will not argue the quality or reliability of those estimates as I consider them to be poor as well.
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September 18, 2013, 06:13:15 PM
 #466


Send me your bitcoin and I promise that the target is to send you back the double by tomorrow.

Still waiting for quote so that I can stand corrected. How hard can that be?

BFL never promises anything. Everything is an "estimate", and every "estimate" is missed. Eventually you come to realize their "estimates" are deliberately optimistic in the hopes of deceiving customers.

Buy & Hold
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September 18, 2013, 06:15:19 PM
 #467

Josh posted today in response to a criticism of BFL product quality:

"So many arriving dsyfunctional? How do you figure? We've shipped over 10,000 units and we've had less than 100 come back for RMA. I'd say that failure rate is spectacular."

Even assuming all these 10,000 units shipped after 6 July 2013, that still only comes to an average production rate of 135 units/day.
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September 18, 2013, 06:16:46 PM
 #468

They have 12 days left until their latest self imposed deadline.

one example of dozens.
joeventura (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:21:12 PM
 #469

No one said Josh "promised" anything.

If you read through this thread you will find your statement to be false. It has been repeatedly stated that this was a hard deadline by several of those posting. I was simply correcting them.

I will not argue the quality or reliability of those estimates as I consider them to be poor as well.

Provides quotes to that nature please.

Right in the OP you will see the word "Estimation"  (it's right next to the word lie ) if you have trouble finding it.

This isn't about promises.  Butterfly Labs and the word "promise" are/is an oxymoron"

As is BFL & Customer Service
        BFL & Communications
        BFL & FCC Certification
        BFL & Compliance with the Law & FTC Guidelines.

You smell what I am steppin' in shill?

joeventura (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:29:19 PM
 #470

They have 12 days left until their latest self imposed deadline.

one example of dozens.

Yeah and self imposed means just that.

This has always been about watching Josh miss his latest estimate.

You can call it whatever you like.

A Synonym for Deadline is "Target date" and Josh has used that term as well.

You want to get into semantics on the english language?

Josh has missed every:
Estimate
Target date
Dead line
Time limit
Calculation
Approximation
Guess

he has made for delivery of goods to his customers.

So pick the word which you would like us to use to describe his action when he, off the cuff throws a date out there and says "we will probably do XYZ by ABC" and we will see if you can use it.

Frankly I like the term WILD ASS GUESS because it describes his darts and calendar approach.

You know I would let his ass off the hook if just once he came out and said "Hey I got that wrong we aren't going to make that date"

But that will never happen.
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September 18, 2013, 06:30:24 PM
 #471

No one said Josh "promised" anything.

If you read through this thread you will find your statement to be false. It has been repeatedly stated that this was a hard deadline by several of those posting. I was simply correcting them.

I will not argue the quality or reliability of those estimates as I consider them to be poor as well.

Provides quotes to that nature please.

Right in the OP you will see the word "Estimation"  (it's right next to the word lie ) if you have trouble finding it.

This isn't about promises.  Butterfly Labs and the word "promise" are/is an oxymoron"

As is BFL & Customer Service
        BFL & Communications
        BFL & FCC Certification
        BFL & Compliance with the Law & FTC Guidelines.

You smell what I am steppin' in shill?


joeventura (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:31:20 PM
 #472

Josh posted today in response to a criticism of BFL product quality:

"So many arriving dsyfunctional? How do you figure? We've shipped over 10,000 units and we've had less than 100 come back for RMA. I'd say that failure rate is spectacular."

Even assuming all these 10,000 units shipped after 6 July 2013, that still only comes to an average production rate of 135 units/day.

They have never reached 400 units a day and have never claimed to.

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September 18, 2013, 06:43:59 PM
 #473

I don't think the question as to whether they have missed their estimates was ever up for debate.
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September 18, 2013, 07:15:13 PM
 #474

I don't think the question as to whether they have missed their estimates was ever up for debate.

So what's stuck in your craw?

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September 18, 2013, 07:41:28 PM
 #475

Good I am glad we have got that 100% cleared up that u are indeed a sycophant
There is no point trying to converse with you as a rock with moss has the mental capability of reason & understanding by a 10 x magnitude more than yourself.....
There is something really wrong with you & I wont be apart of your dysfunction any longer.....BFL are the devil & you are the devils helper
Good luck with That   Wink
The thing you refuse to understand is the what is often labeled as malice in truth ends up being inexperience or incompetance.  You view every problem and mistake as an intentional method to put the screws to customers.  Thus, in truth, you're deluded, because you are looking at things through muddied glasses and refuse to clean them.


Ok I will try one last time.....

U are not a spring chicken and have got some experience with the world....

1) Convicted "LONG CON" felon ....i.e spent years in jail !! 

There is no benefit of doubt given to convicted felons who look to be prepertrating the same crime AGAIN!

2) After so many misteps ..i.e missing parts ...how is it that they keep "NOT" ordering them again

3) They are actually in their 3rd generation of bitcoinmining equipment so they are not a babe in the woods at this

4) They have personal/directors mining setups & therefore the "MOTIVE" is massive for them to commit this fraud upon their customers

There is no crime without a MOTIVE

5) After so MANY lies......Everything they have said time & time again is non stop lies ...IRL if somebody who is an adult keeps doing this type of behaiviour its usually takes about  2-3 times before you say "hey these people are just fucking with me"

6) Caught red handed in the latest charge back/ship out of order incident & once again lying to cover their tracks (its almost like the lie validates the intent) ....I agree in a total theorectical way looking at it in isolation that a shipment  could get sent out of order .....but then the follow up charge back dispute, thats just bullshit

7) The monarch instant 2 months delay in 48 hours ... funny how it helped them generate over 3-4 million in sales and then they come back with a 60 day delay ......also dont forget their is a small batch of units being build to the initial deadline (i wonder who they are going too ?)

Cool the list goes on and on and on .....so many people ...so many instances .....so much $$$ to their benefit

9) I have somebody who has confirmed all of these opinions who is a lot closer to this than me & been involved from the beginning ...u would call them an insider to this whole affair


So after all of this if you are going to claim that ALL of this is just inexperience & naivety I really do believe you are being totally obtuse in this matter ..why ??.... some mental dysfuction or ulterior  motive (they are not going to make u their forum spokes person as u so DEEPLY would love to happen) , as any sane person would at least give some credit to the ever mounting pile of evidence....

Even erk had similar views as yourself going back 6 months ...was totally evangelical as yourself in defending BFL ...even he himself has now come to see BFL in a new light as for any intelligent person it does not add up time & time again no matter how you may want to view it ..I am sure you will be the same given time

Also as u are a "noob" dont you think that others may have a little bit more of experience to these matters than yourself ..just because u have found crypto ..thats great and have now been reading & posting non-stop for the last 6 weeks does not mean you have any wisdom on these matters

I look forward to your response ...
1)  People change.  Do you honestly feel we should just institute the death penalty on all criminals becaue "they did it once, they'll do it again"?

2)  It's not a matter of not ordering them, you are assuming things over which you have no understanding.  The reality of the situation is that there is a kink in the supply chain and the orders are not being filled  as promised.  To use one of the favorite statements on this forum, the supplier is BFL'ing BFL.  The simple fact of the matter is that BFL has 2 warehouses full of cases, PSUs, heat sinks, etc., the company in Chicago has more than enough boards, the thing they DON'T have an excess supply of is the chips.  I have no idea of the true numbers, but imagine you ordered 10,000 chips a day and only 800 or 1500 were arriving.  To make it clearer, imagine have 10,000 Corvettes sitting in the lot and all you are waiting on is engines.  Can't ship without an engine, but the engine manufacturer can't deliver as fast as they promised.  You call and call and call, you get promised things are ramping up, yet it never does.  BFL is accepting the blame for their suppliers from you and others without letting you know it's actually out of their hands.  As an interesting side note, I can't see this same problem happening with the Monarch... you have 1 or 2 chips VS 128.

3)  You are either counting the two different types of FPGA as generations or including the 28nm which is not out yet.  During the FPGA run they had hundreds of orders.  The ASICs have had tens of thousands.  BFL basically started out as a garage operation with 4 engineers and now it's bursting at the seams in desparate need of more space.  Obviously they have had growing pains along the way, I doubt Wozniak and Jobs had the explosive growth BFL has in just 2 short years.

4)  Once again, Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity or incompetance.  Just because Avalon mined with their gear before shipping it out does not mean everyone is doing it.  This is just like a favorite buzz-word at the moment, again without a shred of proof.  As mentioned in #2, they ship out every board they get in as a product daily, so the 'perceived' forced slowdown of products is not happening, they are in truth shipping as fast as possible.  Also consider this... BFL is estimated to have 3PH of pre-orders according to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0.  Using only 1.5TH mini-rigs, that'd be $60,000,000 in orders, so that is a ballpark low figure.  Why in gods name would someone be foolish enough to risky tens of millions in lost orders to gain a few hundred thousand by mining?

5)  You are again treating incompetance as malice, and before you go off, most of this is supplier incompetance, not BFL's.  This type of ASIC is far different from others, it is 'on' more than any other type and therefore uses more power in the process.  I think the percentages I was given were a normal ASIC is 'on' 17% of the time while these are 'on' 50% of the time.  In the FPGA this worked out to 4x the power draw, and now in the ASIC it worked out to 5-6x.  The foundries never dealt with this before so they had to learn, it appears the bumping facility went off without a hitch, but the binning process had to start from scratch as well.  BFL decided to take the heat and repeated what they were told, and now are accused of lies.  I can imagine what they would have been called if they just kept silent... damned if you do, damned if you don't.

6) I think there is some missing information... I know of 1 person who got both a unit and a refund and I know of several people saying they will refuse to sign for it cause they FEEL what you say will happen, but I don't know of an actual case where the chargeback was reversed due to the miner being shipped.  Can you show definitive proof that this did happen?

7)  You are again assuming malice without any facts.  I do not have sufficient information about the monarch to comment.

Cool  You are being too ambiguous here for me to understand what you are talking about.  Is there some proof you have here or is this just the general word of mouth that goes on here daily?  I don't understand.

9)  Let me see if I understand you here... you are claiming to know someone who... what... works at BFL and has told you all of this is 100% true?  Are you trying to say you have definitive proof of everything you have claimed in 1-8?  Why didn't you just post it all and end the speculation instead of asking me how I felt on all of it?

This is what I am talking about... you're resorting to name-calling, referring to me as a noob without any true understanding of who I am.  You are making an uninformed statement based on... opinion.  You have no idea of how much research I have done, you have no idea of my background, yet you feel that because the date I joined the forum shows I have not been here as long as you that I must just be a clueless fanboi who parrots the party line and has no brain of my own to use.  This is why I blow off 90% of what you direct at me, because you have already shown your mind is closed and you refuse to look at anything other than your own narrow opinion.


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I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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September 18, 2013, 07:46:30 PM
 #476

most of this is supplier incompetance, not BFL's.

Where is your evidence?

Buy & Hold
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September 18, 2013, 08:07:03 PM
 #477

most of this is supplier incompetance, not BFL's.

Where is your evidence?
I did the unthinkable... I politely asked a question and I got a polite response.  And it wasn't a canned response, I asked about the supply line, Josh said that they were supposed to be receiving X number of chips daily at Chicago, so I asked how many they were getting and he called someone over, might have been Dave, and asked what they had gotten in and the answer was less than 20% of X.  This person went on to say it looked like 'they' (I think he meant the Binning Fac) might finally be on the ball, cause 2X were supposed to have been shipped over the weekend.  If my word isn't good enough, ask PG, he was there too.

I kinda laugh how anything I post is followed by "Where's the proof/evidence/etc" but when I ask for proof you guys act like I'm being offensive.

It's kinda like when you demanded of me if I saw a November report on Jalapenos when I did the tour.  I looked at your exact wording and answered you according to that wording.  Your problem is you asked the wrong question and you weren't polite about it.  I think that is a major reason why you have no luck getting information from Josh.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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September 18, 2013, 08:12:43 PM
 #478

I did the unthinkable... I politely asked a question and I got a polite response.  And it wasn't a canned response, I asked about the supply line, Josh said that they were supposed to be receiving X number of chips daily at Chicago, so I asked how many they were getting and he called someone over, might have been Dave, and asked what they had gotten in and the answer was less than 20% of X.  This person went on to say it looked like 'they' (I think he meant the Binning Fac) might finally be on the ball, cause 2X were supposed to have been shipped over the weekend.  If my word isn't good enough, ask PG, he was there too.

LOL. It's not that your word isn't good enough. It's that BFL's "word" is worthless. Without documented proof they're just lying. Like how they claim to be powering "the majority" of the network.

Buy & Hold
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September 18, 2013, 09:41:16 PM
 #479

I did the unthinkable... I politely asked a question and I got a polite response.  And it wasn't a canned response, I asked about the supply line, Josh said that they were supposed to be receiving X number of chips daily at Chicago, so I asked how many they were getting and he called someone over, might have been Dave, and asked what they had gotten in and the answer was less than 20% of X.  This person went on to say it looked like 'they' (I think he meant the Binning Fac) might finally be on the ball, cause 2X were supposed to have been shipped over the weekend.  If my word isn't good enough, ask PG, he was there too.

LOL. It's not that your word isn't good enough. It's that BFL's "word" is worthless. Without documented proof they're just lying. Like how they claim to be powering "the majority" of the network.
That statement about the majority was made on Aug 19th at which time the network speed was ~465TH.  They would have only needed 233TH to have the majority.  Just recently someone posted a screenshot of Josh saying 30-45% of the network depending on what you consider it to be at the moment.  That would make it 300+TH at this time.  Around 67TH difference in a month.

Everyone thought at the time that BFL could not have that much due to the Avalon chips, but we've all seen what happened with Avalon.  If Avalon didn't have that 150TH from the chips that everyone was saying they did, who did have it?

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
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September 18, 2013, 09:57:02 PM
 #480

Josh is such a dork. If he's going to backpedal his predictions, he should at least backpedal far enough so he's got something he's guaranteed to hit. It's almost as if they're deliberately choosing to be failures.

You're assuming he cares that what he says is true.

Guide to armory offline install on USB key:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241730.0
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