[NLG] The great Gulden thread

[fallen0987]

Currently there is   408,00,000/48,000,000 = 11.7% of coins being witnessed.  What does everyone predict will be the average amount of coins being witnessed? Still a lot of people creating accounts and locking coins for witnessing.  With 20% of all mined blocks going to witnesses and with more and more coins being locked, what will it take for the witnesses to drive the price up?  What was the number of accounts and coins people expected to be witnessed, was it above or below everyone's expected expectations? 

[BannedFromSlack]

Currently there is   408,00,000/48,000,000 = 11.7% of coins being witnessed.  What does everyone predict will be the average amount of coins being witnessed? Still a lot of people creating accounts and locking coins for witnessing.  With 20% of all mined blocks going to witnesses and with more and more coins being locked, what will it take for the witnesses to drive the price up?  What was the number of accounts and coins people expected to be witnessed, was it above or below everyone's expected expectations?  

I will witness if the reward is 50/50. 50 for miners and 50 for witness. On telegram someone worked out that if it gets to 150 million it won't be worth witnessing and rather keep your funds free to trade, but if you earn 50 reward it makes it so it's worth witnessing at 250 million.

[DashNLG]

Currently there is   408,00,000/48,000,000 = 11.7% of coins being witnessed.  What does everyone predict will be the average amount of coins being witnessed? Still a lot of people creating accounts and locking coins for witnessing.  With 20% of all mined blocks going to witnesses and with more and more coins being locked, what will it take for the witnesses to drive the price up?  What was the number of accounts and coins people expected to be witnessed, was it above or below everyone's expected expectations?  

When the word gets out to the Dutch population that they can earn interest with holding Gulden and not having to trade there will be a rush to get some coins before the price is too high. I also look @ Gulden's twitter and though it's not being announced on bitcointalk there is a constant flow of new merchants accepting Gulden. Gulden gets to 1 Euro, you witness 20 coins, that is a lot of buying power. At 1 Euro per coin Gulden would still not make the top 30 on coinmarketcap which makes the 1 Euro price very possible in the future.

You earn Gulden for a fixed / locked time which forces you to reserve your capital while earning more coins which can be used to spend with.

I tested the minimum amount of 5000 for 3 years or 10 000 for 1 month and there is weighting scale where the minimum amount decreases as you add more time.

The maximum amount of witness accounts possible with the available supply is between 40800 and 81600 which is already impossible as the whales are witnessing with much larger amounts to get the best returns.

The witnessing concept was well thought out by the development team and besides the other added benefits of secure 1 confirmation payments and no chance of a 51% attack.

[metare]

To me the Gulden I put into witness are not here to make me a profit in the short run (3years) but to be a high risk retirement fund that is inflation stable (fixed inflation due to mining rewards) and yields a way better interest than any bank offers now.
So I'm willing to risk what I locked at the possibility that I have a decent gain in this fund by witnessing it for decades.

I didn't check what my current witness forecast is but i think it's around 7% per year. Even at 1% I still see it as worth to lock.
I agree that a 50/50 reward would feel better and obviously would allow more Gulden to be locked at a high interest rate, however would need a new risk assessment for attack vectors.

@Morbs: I don't see any of the regular posters as trolls in here

[RichPissman]

The more witness accounts come into place the less revenue it will bring to the majority.

There is only one constant and that's the daily supply of Gulden to come into circulation, namely G 57,600. 20% of that goes to the witness accounts, so that's G 11,520.

Some 100 Whales get roughly half of that, which leaves G 5,760 for the rest of the smaller accounts. So if Gulden get's to be popular with people and let's say 10,000 accounts get into a 3 year witness program with G 20,000 each. Every account gets a daily interest of G 0.576. That's G 210.24 a year.

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

So for the people that have locked their funds in witness already, lets hope witness doesn't become successful!

[Henis]

The more witness accounts come into place the less revenue it will bring to the majority.

There is only one constant and that's the daily supply of Gulden to come into circulation, namely G 57,600. 20% of that goes to the witness accounts, so that's G 11,520.

Some 100 Whales get roughly half of that, which leaves G 5,760 for the rest of the smaller accounts. So if Gulden get's to be popular with people and let's say 10,000 accounts get into a 3 year witness program with G 20,000 each. Every account gets a daily interest of G 0.576. That's G 210.24 a year.

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

So for the people that have locked their funds in witness already, lets hope witness doesn't become successful!

Is this a good time to be a whale if I want to invest €20000 or should I wait for the price to drop more while purchasing coins slowly.
It's about 400 000 NLG, I already have 25000 in a witness and another +11000 that is free.

[RichPissman]

The more witness accounts come into place the less revenue it will bring to the majority.

There is only one constant and that's the daily supply of Gulden to come into circulation, namely G 57,600. 20% of that goes to the witness accounts, so that's G 11,520.

Some 100 Whales get roughly half of that, which leaves G 5,760 for the rest of the smaller accounts. So if Gulden get's to be popular with people and let's say 10,000 accounts get into a 3 year witness program with G 20,000 each. Every account gets a daily interest of G 0.576. That's G 210.24 a year.

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

So for the people that have locked their funds in witness already, lets hope witness doesn't become successful!

Is this a good time to be a whale if I want to invest €20000 or should I wait for the price to drop more while purchasing coins slowly.

It's always better to buy in small chunks, no trader ever got wiser by doing market-buys. I don't see Gulden going up rapidly any time soon.

[Henis]

The more witness accounts come into place the less revenue it will bring to the majority.

There is only one constant and that's the daily supply of Gulden to come into circulation, namely G 57,600. 20% of that goes to the witness accounts, so that's G 11,520.

Some 100 Whales get roughly half of that, which leaves G 5,760 for the rest of the smaller accounts. So if Gulden get's to be popular with people and let's say 10,000 accounts get into a 3 year witness program with G 20,000 each. Every account gets a daily interest of G 0.576. That's G 210.24 a year.

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

So for the people that have locked their funds in witness already, lets hope witness doesn't become successful!

Is this a good time to be a whale if I want to invest €20000 or should I wait for the price to drop more while purchasing coins slowly.

It's always better to buy in small chunks, no trader ever got wiser by doing market-buys. I don't see Gulden going up rapidly any time soon.

Current price is a fair price to me, a little lower would be nice too.

[Morbs]

I'm trying to get all the pieces together from the premine. However, wayback machine isn't working on the older premine pages.. Can some of you guide me towards the some information. Im working on an article.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=554412.msg13276752;topicseen#msg13276752

Aaargh! I've been looking for that post as well! TNX!

Ok, traced it back to the motherload:

http://www.guldenchain.com/address/GgtaZuo1zKYXhitiLgw5fWjeEXr3JpHvU3

That should be your best starting point.

This would be the most promising chain:

http://www.guldenchain.com/address/GRMkjsTanendgQCNRGTpNusH118m3TtmfL

This was the motherload. The 170M newly generated coins.  Do your thing now Sherlock 

http://www.guldenchain.com/address/GMSTZS2HQ34NKVszPhyjZYrwjCCb5aRqmo

[BioMike]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

[RichPissman]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

For the ones who don't get it:

If your friend brings a bag of 10 candy balls to school each day and shares it with only you, you each get 5 balls
Then 3 others join his friends club and we all end up with 2 balls each.
He suddenly becomes popular that way and next day he has 5 more friends. How many balls does everyone get now?
Yep, only one each.

Same with witnessing.

[metare]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

For the ones who don't get it:

If your friend brings a bag of 10 candy balls to school each day and shares it with only you, you each get 5 balls
Then 3 others join his friends club and we all end up with 2 balls each.
He suddenly becomes popular that way and next day he has 5 more friends. How many balls does everyone get now?
Yep, only one each.

Same with witnessing.

There's a thinking mistake here, you don't get those rewards for free you need to lock funds. This drives the demand up, which makes it more expensive to lock new funds. It also means that the incentive to lock gets lower. Some won't bother if the interest is below 3% with a max lock duration and like this the amount of locked Gulden will find a balance. I don't know where this will be but only an idiot would lock 20k NLG he bought for 20k€ for 3 years with an interest rate of 0.1%.
My point: idiots normally don't have 20k€ at hand. And your scenario involves 50% of supply locked.

[BioMike]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

For the ones who don't get it:

If your friend brings a bag of 10 candy balls to school each day and shares it with only you, you each get 5 balls
Then 3 others join his friends club and we all end up with 2 balls each.
He suddenly becomes popular that way and next day he has 5 more friends. How many balls does everyone get now?
Yep, only one each.

Same with witnessing.

There's a thinking mistake here, you don't get those rewards for free you need to lock funds. This drives the demand up, which makes it more expensive to lock new funds. It also means that the incentive to lock gets lower. Some won't bother if the interest is below 3% with a max lock duration and like this the amount of locked Gulden will find a balance. I don't know where this will be but only an idiot would lock 20k NLG he bought for 20k€ for 3 years with an interest rate of 0.1%.
My point: idiots normally don't have 20k€ at hand. And your scenario involves 50% of supply locked.

I agree things need to balance out, but the long term locking is a big risk that currently gives no guarantee of being very profitable. It all depends on the percentage, not on market price (which is also uncertain by itself and three years is long-term in terms of market (and coin) development, a lot could happen in that time).

[metare]

Of course long term locking is a big risk but this also means that if we end up with 20% of the funds locked for an average of let's say 1.5 years that signals a lot of trust into the downward stability of the coin. If got this right this would still get all witness funds to a neutral level (interest rate=inflationary rate) which is still more than you can get of a casual bank deal.

[CryptoObserver]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

For the ones who don't get it:

If your friend brings a bag of 10 candy balls to school each day and shares it with only you, you each get 5 balls
Then 3 others join his friends club and we all end up with 2 balls each.
He suddenly becomes popular that way and next day he has 5 more friends. How many balls does everyone get now?
Yep, only one each.

Same with witnessing.

There's a thinking mistake here, you don't get those rewards for free you need to lock funds. This drives the demand up, which makes it more expensive to lock new funds. It also means that the incentive to lock gets lower. Some won't bother if the interest is below 3% with a max lock duration and like this the amount of locked Gulden will find a balance. I don't know where this will be but only an idiot would lock 20k NLG he bought for 20k€ for 3 years with an interest rate of 0.1%.
My point: idiots normally don't have 20k€ at hand. And your scenario involves 50% of supply locked.

The demand will only continue to go down unless fresh meat is introduced to Gulden and the benefits of witnessing, if your earning witness funds what is the incentive to buy more off the exchanges? Buy orders and fiat and sat prices continue it's decline since witnessing started.

[RichPissman]

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%! By the time those 3 years have past banks will probably be giving 0.5% again already.

I think you can even better interests (about 1% for 5 years, guaranteed) at saving depositos already, no need to wait 3 years for banks to increase their savings interest.

Sure, one would made now 7%, but that could easily change over time. And like you said, if witnessing becomes more popular be sure that the interest goes down.

For the ones who don't get it:

If your friend brings a bag of 10 candy balls to school each day and shares it with only you, you each get 5 balls
Then 3 others join his friends club and we all end up with 2 balls each.
He suddenly becomes popular that way and next day he has 5 more friends. How many balls does everyone get now?
Yep, only one each.

Same with witnessing.

There's a thinking mistake here, you don't get those rewards for free you need to lock funds. This drives the demand up, which makes it more expensive to lock new funds. It also means that the incentive to lock gets lower. Some won't bother if the interest is below 3% with a max lock duration and like this the amount of locked Gulden will find a balance. I don't know where this will be but only an idiot would lock 20k NLG he bought for 20k€ for 3 years with an interest rate of 0.1%.
My point: idiots normally don't have 20k€ at hand. And your scenario involves 50% of supply locked.

The demand will only continue to go down unless fresh meat is introduced to Gulden and the benefits of witnessing, if your earning witness funds what is the incentive to buy more off the exchanges? Buy orders and fiat and sat prices continue it's decline since witnessing started.

The Guldens that have gone into witness were already off the market before, because those who are witnessing now have been saving up especially for that.

This also means they have been spending their money buying up Gulden toward the moment witnessing was possible. Now it's Holliday season and they finally can stop buying Gulden and start spending it on beer and burgers again.

This means demand dropped, but supply (all be it 20% less) stays the same from miners.

Do the math.

Dare I add the forbidden M-word?

You can have the best damn Hotdog-stand in the World, if you chose to put it in the middle of the dessert, chances are you are going to sell very few. I'd rather have a lesser quality Hotdog, but sell them at the exit of central station.

[metare]

RichGhandi we both agree about marketing being necessary but invisible atm.
My statement was about the fears that so many might lock funds that the interest rate is crap. In case that most of the long time followers already locked their funds intended to witness and probably won't just lock tons more while the price rate is dropping.
So the fear of 50% of the whole volume being locked includes extraordinary marketing or am I missing something.

[RichPissman]

RichGhandi we both agree about marketing being necessary but invisible atm.
My statement was about the fears that so many might lock funds that the interest rate is crap. In case that most of the long time followers already locked their funds intended to witness and probably won't just lock tons more while the price rate is dropping.
So the fear of 50% of the whole volume being locked includes extraordinary marketing or am I missing something.

No, you are right. My example was hypothetical. Still, already with current amounts locked in witness a vast decline in expected rates is visible. If Gulden gets more attraction that will only get worse. On the other hand, prices will raise indeed. But that is also why I think people stuck in witness for 3 years already now might get very frustrated knowing they are looking at a possession and not being able to access it.

Let's say you have bought 100k Gulden @ 5ct, an investment of € 5,000. You put it in witness for 3 years. Then after a year a huge pump comes in. All of a sudden your investment is worth € 100,000! Unfortunately you can't access it. Then the pump goes over and your investment drops to € 10,000. That's when you realize, you could have gotten an interest of € 90,000 and still keep your Gulden. If only you haden't put it in witness.

[CryptoObserver]

RichGhandi we both agree about marketing being necessary but invisible atm.
My statement was about the fears that so many might lock funds that the interest rate is crap. In case that most of the long time followers already locked their funds intended to witness and probably won't just lock tons more while the price rate is dropping.
So the fear of 50% of the whole volume being locked includes extraordinary marketing or am I missing something.

No, you are right. My example was hypothetical. Still, already with current amounts locked in witness a vast decline in expected rates is visible. If Gulden gets more attraction that will only get worse. On the other hand, prices will raise indeed. But that is also why I think people stuck in witness for 3 years already now might get very frustrated knowing they are looking at a possession and not being able to access it.

Let's say you have bought 100k Gulden @ 5ct, an investment of € 5,000. You put it in witness for 3 years. Then after a year a huge pump comes in. All of a sudden your investment is worth € 100,000! Unfortunately you can't access it. Then the pump goes over and your investment drops to € 10,000. That's when you realize, you could have gotten an interest of € 90,000 and still keep your Gulden. If only you haden't put it in witness.

I can't argue with the above, another reason that they not marketing the update is so the whales can get as much as possible with less competition. That could be the other angle?

I would suggest keeping money out of crypto altogether, wait for bitcoin to drop to under $3000 and Gulden to 500 sat then buy up 1% of the supply with ease.

[FornaxNLG]

... which leaves G 5,760 for the rest of the smaller accounts.
So if Gulden get's to be popular with people and let's say 10,000 accounts get into a 3 year witness program with G 20,000 each.
Every account gets a daily interest of G 0.576. That's G 210.24 a year.

So if witness gets successful, it will result in an average yearly interest of 0.011%!

That calculation is slightly off.