Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[Cablez]

I would feel better about 7000 in Sept if we were at 1000 now.  It seems such a stretch.

[1713470391]

1713470391

[1713470391]

1713470391

[rpietila]

I would feel better about 7000 in Sept if we were at 1000 now.  It seems such a stretch.

622->7000 in 60 days is less and slower than last oct-nov. 

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

Might be useful here, too (posted this in the rpietila wall observer thread):

This version of the formula directly works on Wolfram Alpha (copy/paste):

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days))

or just follow this link:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E%28-2.869800+%2B+0.003012+*+%28%28number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+03%29%2Fdays%29%29

[bitteractor]

Thank you, LOADING.READY.RUN.  I was going to ask about this

[mktrader]

I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin

The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days

R^2 = 0.934183

The trendline is at $1583.

At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.

For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.


The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.

This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.

I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:


TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.

Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.

In the above trend-line formula, can you please describe D (the number of days)? Is it a constant? How this number is calculated?
 
Cheers!

[rpietila]

In the above trend-line formula, can you please describe D (the number of days)? Is it a constant? How this number is calculated?
 
Cheers!

D = number of days since Jan 3, 2009.

[_smudger_]

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

[wachtwoord]

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

It says 9.992

[_smudger_]

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

It says 9.992

Not what I got

[wachtwoord]

[arklan]

well, thats... slightly odd.

[Cablez]

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

[wachtwoord]

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

I clicked the link.

But here's a fixed link (I hope) Link

[_smudger_]

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

I clicked the link.

But here's a fixed link (I hope) Link

Thanks wachtwoord  it might be a browser related issue,

_smudger_

[wachtwoord]

bump

-0.4628 still not lower than -0.5

[BldSwtTrs]

bump

-0.4628 still not lower than -0.5

Now it's lower.

[rpietila]

Trendline update as of today.

0,002985x - 2,851666

R^2 = 0,935623

Picture is telling the important thing.

In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.

In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).


Very crude but shows, among others, that:

- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.

[fallinglantern]

Thank you very much for the updated graph, Risto. It's great to get some long-term perspective in times like these. It's interesting to note that barely a week after that local min on the trend line on 2012-05-21, BTCUSD took off from ~5 to 9.2 on 2012-07-18.

[Valerian77]

Somebody dumped and the price reacted. But the reaction was little because the price starts to surge already again. Since the transaction volume and the price trend was stuck before this down trend was the best what could have happened for now. Maybe it would be good if the Bitcoin price would be drowned to 450 USD.

[Trolololo]

I have made a non-linear regression of the historic Bitcoin prices:





Calculate today's trendline price here: wolframalpha.com

More info here: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value